clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Ender said: It doesn't appear to be holding much back on this run. As to your question, I believe they flagged the tendency to hold energy back across the four corners region and/or off the Southern California, Baja coasts. I think they also did something to address the euro's tendency to go ballistic off the SE to MA coast in the transitionary months (e.g. The tendency for explosive cyclogensis, and cutoff in March and November). Thanks. I cant spend the money on the Euro this year. So I am trying to live through peoples play by play on here. I appreciate the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: It has had some instances of over amplification in the med range this year. That's probably the only thing I've noticed so far this winter. It has been notorious for the big 7-10 day snow storm for the mid Atlantic over the past 3 years or so. Remember it was the one that hammered us with the Dec storm at long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It has had some instances of over amplification in the med range this year. That's probably the only thing I've noticed so far this winter. Yeah, around forecast hour 138, typically when it's decided to steal our snow and send it up through the Midwest. I've assumed that it's just so giddy at the prospect of ruining my week that it kinda goes overboard with things. It usually corrects the intensity when it's within 126 hours of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 EPS Control is wagons north... ensembles are both good and bad... can we take e5 and run with it? 50/50 was nice in the decent hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 EPS is basically an equal mix of misses to the north and south, rainers, and decent hits. The only good thing I saw was h5 being better with confluence and 50/50 placement. Other than that, it's anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 EPS is basically an equal mix of misses to the north and south, rainers, and decent hits. The only good thing I saw was h5 being better with confluence and 50/50 placement. Other than that, it's anyone's guess. For those who can't see, mean is at 3" across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS is basically an equal mix of misses to the north and south, rainers, and decent hits. The only good thing I saw was h5 being better with confluence and 50/50 placement. Other than that, it's anyone's guess. I felt it supported the op for the most part wrt timing and location of heaviest snowfall. Mean is the same through 10 with a shift north from 0z. There are by my count about 15 that are pretty much shutouts through day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 I like the low locations on the eps as well as the slight cad look to the pressure levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Euro control is fun. A miss south. Then a really nasty ice storm. Then a moderate snow event day 11-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I felt it supported the op for the most part wrt timing and location of heaviest snowfall. Mean is the same through 10 with a shift north from 0z. There are by my count about 15 that are pretty much shutouts through day 10. If you scan the member output plots you won't find a pattern. East/west/north/south/1 wave/2 waves/snow/rain....nothing stands out. It's like a bowl of soup with no main ingredient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: If you scan the member output plots you won't find a pattern. East/west/north/south/1 wave/2 waves/snow/rain....nothing stands out. It's like a bowl of soup with no main ingredient. I can't see those details from the EPS mean, but you can tell that there's no consensus after about 144 hours. Comparing the 144hr panels between the Euro op and the EPS mean, they are generally quite consistent. Op is just deeper with the shortwave out west. Then after that the EPS just serves up a jumble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you scan the member output plots you won't find a pattern. East/west/north/south/1 wave/2 waves/snow/rain....nothing stands out. It's like a bowl of soup with no main ingredient. Perhaps, but that east west stripe of snow south of the Ohio river is a pretty prevalent feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you scan the member output plots you won't find a pattern. East/west/north/south/1 wave/2 waves/snow/rain....nothing stands out. It's like a bowl of soup with no main ingredient. I don't mind the run. There are only 7 members that D.C. Avoids 2" because everything goes northwest. I count 11 members where D.C. Avoids 2" because the snow goes southeast. The other 33 members manage to clip D.C. with 2"+ somehow by either wave 1, 2, or something as the pattern breaks day 12-14. It was a solid run imo. We're still way far out for detail analysis. ETA: control shows the complexity and potential. A miss south then about 1-2" snow to bad bad ice storm then a 3-5" snow day 11 then a 1-3" snow to rain event day 14. That's now a bad winter week. Plus a couple more manage to clip D.C. With some snow day 14-15 so the final tally is only 15 members manage to keep D.C. below 2". That's not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 FWIW 12z Para is decent hit for the area. 4-6" across DC with heavier totals (8-9") south near Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I don't mind the run. There are only 7 members that D.C. Avoids 2" because everything goes northwest. I count 11 members where D.C. Avoids 2" because the snow goes southeast. The other 33 members manage to clip D.C. with 2"+ somehow by either wave 1, 2, or something as the pattern breaks day 12-14. It was a solid run imo. We're still way far out for detail analysis. ETA: control shows the complexity and potential. A miss south then about 1-2" snow to bad bad ice storm then a 3-5" snow day 11 then a 1-3" snow to rain event day 14. That's now a bad winter week. Plus a couple more manage to clip D.C. With some snow day 14-15 so the final tally is only 15 members manage to keep D.C. below 2". That's not a bad run. How can you tell it's ice? Upper levels to warm? Surface is below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 If you scan the member output plots you won't find a pattern. East/west/north/south/1 wave/2 waves/snow/rain....nothing stands out. It's like a bowl of soup with no main ingredient. this is when the mean comes in handy Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: FWIW 12z Para is decent hit for the area. 4-6" across DC with heavier totals (8-9") south near Richmond. And again what was progged as a super ridge 48 hours ago now looks like this day 13 and morphs into this day 16. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Now, I don't mean to divert here (but it does fall under "long range" topic, lol) The Farmer's Alamanc...when they do get it right (maybe 50% of the time), just how do they do it from that far away?? Some kind of crazy formula? (So far, they got our mini-ice storm and the Dakota Christmas snow correct). Again, I know they miss a lot, when they do get it, I'm like...what the heck?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, kurtstack said: this is when the mean comes in handy Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It does but not really in this case. The camps are evenly divided for the most part so the camp with total fail has equal odds as anything else in the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It does but not really in this case. The camps are evenly divided for the most part so the camp with total fail has equal odds as anything else in the mean. I guess except I find some comfort that 70% of the members manage to find a way to get decent snow into our area one way or another in the 7 day threat window we're looking at. It at least shows the pattern still holds potential up score several different ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: And again what was progged as a super ridge 48 hours ago now looks like this day 13 and morphs into this day 16. Lol EPS ever so slowly backing away from the eastern ridge late. As you noted, starting to see an increase of possible winter events post d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: EPS ever so slowly backing away from the eastern ridge late. As you noted, starting to see an increase of possible winter events post d10. I hope we survive this torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 15 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: FWIW 12z Para is decent hit for the area. 4-6" across DC with heavier totals (8-9") south near Richmond. Where are you getting theses totals from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Where are you getting theses totals from? TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, yoda said: TT Ok thanks. Id have to be skeptical of highest totals right on the rain snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok thanks. Id have to be skeptical of highest totals right on the rain snow line. Why, never heard "gotta smell rain to jackpot sometimes".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I have a feeling this run is going to be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I have a feeling this run is going to be goodRyan Maue pays up to £140,000/year for the Euro data. It better win for that price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Here comes the rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 18z looks similar to 12z. We get rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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