psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ender said: I'm getting a bit worried about what the Euro intends to do at about day nine. It might look good on this run, but I bet the trend won't be good. man your like a wet blanket today. Lol. Don't take that the wrong way love and highly respect your analysis. Gives me pause that maybe I'm just allowing my early season holiday upbeat mood to effect my opinion but it's obvious you really don't like the pattern either medium range or long term. Curious what's your thoughts on the winter as a whole right now if you don't mind sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 192 pounded But is NE Maryland crushed, pummeled, destroyed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 198 I decided I liked the run around 144. The rest was almost inevitable given that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, yoda said: You can see the MLs on the EURO? It looks like a pasting to me It's not all snow for the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Subtracting about an inch from the 162-168 "wave"... N VA/DC/MD are all raked... 10-15" ETA: Using WxBell fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, yoda said: You can see the MLs on the EURO? It looks like a pasting to me You can estimate using common sense from the setup. But I think even D.C. would do well before losing the mid levels in that situation. But now we're doing short range analysis on a still fantasy range event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Don't think anyone's going to be upset at this Euro run. I certainly would be if the Euro was right with the ptype with the second wave. The western and northern folks would do good but us easterners would have to get our snow with the weak overruning from the 1st wave. Of course, all will be different the next run but.....I'd prefer a more suppressed look even if it gave less precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Wish this was at hour 96 instead of 198. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, yoda said: You can see the MLs on the EURO? It looks like a pasting to me P type on WxBell shows some nice mixage along 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 993 off Rehoboth Beach...jeesh! Just another possible outcome. I'm not complaining that this type of outcome is in the mix tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Hopefully the EPS backs up the OP, or has the storm a bit farther south at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 It's a much more dynamic event then before so we're still talking more complicated but this setup ups the ante for sure. Good h5 track and goes neutral at a good point. H85 passes a bit too close to keep all snow along 95 but please don't waste a lot of time on that. It's 8 days away and honestly how many big storms are 100% snow anyways. That's like chasing the white elk. If the urban corridor gets 8-10" then mixes with sleet are we complaining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's a much more dynamic event then before so we're still talking more complicated but this setup ups the ante for sure. Good h5 track and goes neutral at a good point. H85 passes a bit too close to keep all snow along 95 but please don't waste a lot of time on that. It's 8 days away and honestly how many big storms are 100% snow anyways. That's like chasing the white elk. If the urban corridor gets 8-10" then mixes with sleet are we complaining? I'm almost 100% sure euro ens will add nothing except more uncertainty to the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's a much more dynamic event then before so we're still talking more complicated but this setup ups the ante for sure. Good h5 track and goes neutral at a good point. H85 passes a bit too close to keep all snow along 95 but please don't waste a lot of time on that. It's 8 days away and honestly how many big storms are 100% snow anyways. That's like chasing the white elk. If the urban corridor gets 8-10" then mixes with sleet are we complaining? No complaints here. Seems like both the GFS and the EURO have decided at 12z that this event will be more dynamic regardless of p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wish this was at hour 96 instead of 198. Then you'd be complaining about the mix and changeover. At least with the flurries this morning I've seen snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 It's a much more dynamic event then before so we're still talking more complicated but this setup ups the ante for sure. Good h5 track and goes neutral at a good point. H85 passes a bit too close to keep all snow along 95 but please don't waste a lot of time on that. It's 8 days away and honestly how many big storms are 100% snow anyways. That's like chasing the white elk. If the urban corridor gets 8-10" then mixes with sleet are we complaining? no complaints here Still not jumping on any op though - euro ensemble should be telling. My expectations are just to get on the board in 2017 whether we taint or not. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 This run is very similar to the last two control runs....Dampened front wave and a more amped 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, kurtstack said: no complaints here Still not jumping on any op though - euro ensemble should be telling. My expectations are just to get on the board in 2017 whether we taint or not. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk We still have a decent shot to see accumulating snow in the next 2 weeks. That should be the main focus for now. Back to chopping down trees. I'll pop in for the EPS later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 So the NAVGEM wasn't that far-fetched after all with the trailing wave slp coming out of AL? Or do we discard the Euro because its in the NAVGEM camp? SE Ridge looks good, no more pumping up those heights tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 We have the weekend rule going for us :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 17 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Then you'd be complaining about the mix and changeover. At least with the flurries this morning I've seen snow. I'd hang on to snow longer than you! And don't forget my 300 feet of super elevation. Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So the NAVGEM wasn't that far-fetched after all with the trailing wave slp coming out of AL? Or do we discard the Euro because its in the NAVGEM camp? SE Ridge looks good, no more pumping up those heights tho! Go with the CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Well hopefully halts all the cliff jumping from a single GFS op run 7-8 days out. There's going to be a storm next Friday-Saturday. Long wave pattern is fairly favorable for us. Not much else to say yet. Yep. Said almost exactly what you said in that last sentence yesterday. There's going to be a storm. I hope everyone remembers that the euro is the king of fantasy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: man your like a wet blanket today. Lol. Don't take that the wrong way love and highly respect your analysis. Gives me pause that maybe I'm just allowing my early season holiday upbeat mood to effect my opinion but it's obvious you really don't like the pattern either medium range or long term. Curious what's your thoughts on the winter as a whole right now if you don't mind sharing. So, at least based on the low resolution maps I'm looking at, it would appear that the Euro takes a little bit of sheared out energy, along with some baroclinicity and gives us a tiny bit of precipitation early Friday. Now at 12Z Friday, the Euro has a fairly impressive s/w out in southern Nevada. The GFS at the same time, however, has that same vort apparently over northern Texas and its beginning to interact with a s/w up over souther MN. The result is, well, the result we see on the GFS. So, let's discard the GFS and go back to the Euro... The Euro tracks its "trailing s/w" across northern Texas and into Arkansas by 12Z Saturday and into western Kentucky by 18Z and western WVA by 0Z Sunday. At that point in time, even before then, it was dangerously close to having taking the trof negative, but it didn't quite. Had it done so then that's more often, than not, a decent way of getting a bit (couple to a few tenths) of over-running perception before redevelopment takes place off the VA Capes and NE Md through NE get hammered, but that's not what the Euro does so let's just focus on how the Euro does what it does... The Euro is much stronger with that piece of energy that'd dropped down from the northern stream and into NV earlier in the forecast. Much stronger that is compared to its 0Z run. Not only that, but it's considerably stronger with the next piece of energy dropping down off the Washington coast at 12Z Saturday. The Western ridge orientation isn't exactly spectacular for Saturday to begin with (quite flat and along the west coast rater than inland a bit). I'm worried that the Euro is already on the cusp of deepening Saturday's system "too fast" (for our happiness) as it tracks into MS/AL, that, I think, is a byproduct of the "barely acceptable" western ridge. Now, take that feature dropping down along the WA coast and follow it along its trend for the last 24-hours and you have a recipe for a sharper west coast oriented ridging. That then is a recipe for our thread-the-needle, marginal thermal profile, to end up tracking well west of us, up into the OV, before redevelopment off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm almost 100% sure euro ens will add nothing except more uncertainty to the discussion. It'll show two or three camps of solutions. So, yeah. Meanwhile it's blizzarding again outside. My yard is still covered and white from this morning's nearly half inch. At this rate, and with considerable luck, I could approach an inch for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Does anybody know if the Euro upgrades fixed it's known bias to hold energy back in the SW? Or is it doing the same thing it has always done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I hear the euro has snow for next weekend Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I hear the euro has snow for next weekend Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Let's ask Doc Holiday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Does anybody know if the Euro upgrades fixed it's known bias to hold energy back in the SW? Or is it doing the same thing it has always done? It doesn't appear to be holding much back on this run. As to your question, I believe they flagged the tendency to hold energy back across the four corners region and/or off the Southern California, Baja coasts. I think they also did something to address the euro's tendency to go ballistic off the SE to MA coast in the transitionary months (e.g. The tendency for explosive cyclogensis, and cutoff in March and November). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Ender said: It doesn't appear to be holding much back on this run. As to your question, I believe they flagged the tendency to hold energy back across the four corners region and/or off the Southern California, Baja coasts. I think they also did something to address the euro's tendency to go ballistic off the SE to MA coast in the transitionary months (e.g. The tendency for explosive cyclogensis, and cutoff in March and November). It has had some instances of over amplification in the med range this year. That's probably the only thing I've noticed so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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