January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Post it in the December thread, you heathen!

But nobody posts there!

Dont banish me to the hinterland! 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Didn't someone say last week they were the worst they'd ever seen?

I did but I also said I didn't put much stock in it. I wasn't using it to say winter was over just pointing out it was an awful run with above normal temps through to feb and ridging in the east every week basically. But as bob said the weeklies tend to roll whatever pattern day 15 shows forwards and rely on persistence too much. I guess if we're in a stable pattern where day 15 is accurate they can be useful to predict how it roll into week 3-4. By week 5 it's got the verification scores of a blind squirrel even in the easiest of patterns. This year their probably on par with asking an astrologist by week 3. But also agreeing with bob I'll take good looks over bad even if it only slightly improved our odds. A good run is a good run even if it's only nice to look at it at least fave us some positive value. Last weeks run was just depressing. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Go ahead and wish my vacation time away for your silly hobby.....Selfish! 

I know we all dream of snow for Christmas but now that the fantasy is over it's probably best, knowing how crazy many of our schedules probably are this week, that the real tracking and fun will be after New Years.  I know between all the travel and family stuff this week I wouldn't be able to track or enjoy it as much. And almost every day it would mess up some plans we have. I want snow now but perhaps it's better this way. I'm sure I'll get slammed for not saying make it snow NOW for the next 20 posts in here. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, leo1000 said:

The 18gfs op is showing a cutter system on the 11th of January. 

Thanks for letting us know.  I'll return my sons sled and let him know it won't be snowing this year. Good heads up. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And more importantly how do they look for Jan 17?

What will he do January 18???

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

 

Logical.  Good stuff guys.

Do they generally follow the pattern laid out by the ensembles or are there times when are in stark contrast.

They are initialized off the 0z ensembles so you can get a good idea where they are going from the night before a eps run. 

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not long range, but, again, flakes increasingly possible Thursday.

There are a few flakes in this thread already. 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

They do look fairly good. Like the fact it is not showing south east ridging like the last couple of runs. I do question the temp anomalies though. The look IMO suggests seasonal to slightly below temps not the above normal temps it shows in the longer range.

Weeklies always seem to have somewhat of a disconnect between h5 and temps. Could have something to do with smoothing but who knows. Hard not to like the run either way. That's for sure. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What will he do January 18???

That's like 2012.  Nothingness will follow Jan 17.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

They do look fairly good. Like the fact it is not showing south east ridging like the last couple of runs. I do question the temp anomalies though. The look IMO suggests seasonal to slightly below temps not the above normal temps it shows in the longer range.

I wouldn't worry much about lower level temp anomalies 3-5 weeks out. First the models tend to do better at h5 anyways. Surface features are harder to get right. Second even if their right about the temps they don't look torching and if we're hunting snow we don't necessarily need an arctic airmass in January or early feb. Get a system to track under us that time of year and it can work out with marginal airmass. 

In some not so great years our only snow came during periods that weren't even that cold.  feb 2010 wasn't even an Arctic airmass. Even up here where it's typically 5-10 degrees colder the two snows Jan 31 and feb 3 were long gone melted by the time the feb 5 storm started. Not even patches left. Feb 5 started as a wet snow and from a week out people were worried the airmass wasn't cold enough.  Then after it was mostly upper 30s and 40s for highs. Without the 2-3 feet of snowcover it would have been 45-50 ish easy. It wasn't that cold.  Same last January. We were worried about rain from 7-10 days when the storm first showed up. I'm not saying cold isn't important. But between Jan 1 and feb 15 give me the right h5 pattern and storm track and I'll take my chances on it being cold enough when it matters, during the precipitation. 

[Bob Chill]

Mean 46 day temps on the weekly run was -1.5. Mean snowfall is over 10" for everyone along and west of 95 for the most part. Looking at the run in its entirety definitely makes it the most wintry run of the season.

I think the most important part of the run is not having a big +ao/nao on the means. Seems like the huge spike this month may not carry over into Jan. Past data makes me skeptical but a reversal after a big + Dec has happened. It's just not nearly as common as the years where Jan followed Dec's lead. 

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Mean 46 day temps on the weekly run was -1.5. Mean snowfall is over 10" for everyone along and west of 95 for the most part. Looking at the run in its entirety definitely makes it the most wintry run of the season.

I think the most important part of the run is not having a big +ao/nao on the means. Seems like the huge spike this month may not carry over into Jan. Past data makes me skeptical but a reversal after a big + Dec has happened. It's just not nearly as common as the years where Jan followed Dec's lead. 

Yes especially when the Op runs are going in the wrong direction.  That one was ugly and although just op run the common theme of this winter remains with cutters and SE ridges.  They can't be entirely dismissed.  

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yes especially when the Op runs are going in the wrong direction.  That one was ugly and although just op run the common theme of this winter remains with cutters and SE ridges.  They can't be entirely dismissed.  

Goodnight

[BristowWx]

Fine.  Maybe ai just need a good nights sleep.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

EPS finally got that 2" line into DC. Almost all of that comes after Jan. 6th

[psuhoffman]

The majority of this comes day 10-14. Definitely a strong signal for a storm there. Snow mean is skewed high because some of the runs suggest a mixed west track system and gefs counts ice as snow but it still the best look we have had for any one storm yet. 

[clskinsfan]

I am feeling worthless for posting about the CFS last week. What a hunk of garbage that thing is. Anyways. I do like the look of some of the long range guidance around mid January. It at least looks like the ridiculous mega polar vortex idea may be wrong. And also some hints of a east based -NAO. As well as ridging along the west coast. But it is tough to believe any of it when a week ago the models all showed the exact opposite.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

The majority of this comes day 10-14. Definitely a strong signal for a storm there. Snow mean is skewed high because some of the runs suggest a mixed west track system and gefs counts ice as snow but it still the best look we have had for any one storm yet. 

At a quick glance it seems like there are very few GL screw jobs. Some of them have lows track over us and few have them go under us. Looking good for this range!

[Bob Chill]

Signal getting stronger for the window centered around the 7th. 

6z GEFS low location and mslp plots show a pretty classic TN valley track with well placed CAD HP. Even a west track would produce a wnwxluvr special thump/dryslot event. 

 

 

Mean 24 hour precip panel looks really sweet. No qpf max running north through Ohio is nice to see. The setup as it stands right now is more of a MA special than anything else. 

 

 

 

EPS has a cluster similar but with double the members the signal is muted for now. I'm pretty tired of muddy d10+ threats. The fundamental differences with this compared to the Dec setup is a hp sliding NE instead of E and the wave coming up from the SE and not tracking across the midwest. Best opportunity we've seen but quite a few days away from taking seriously. 

IMHO- current ens guidance late in the period looks pretty much like a reload of the pattern. My total WAG is any relaxation a couple weeks down the line would be short lived but we've had a jump long range this year so anything is possible. 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Signal getting stronger for the window centered around the 7th. 

6z GEFS low location and mslp plots show a pretty classic TN valley track with well placed CAD HP. Even a west track would produce a wnwxluvr special thump/dryslot event. 

 

 

Mean 24 hour precip panel looks really sweet. No qpf max running north through Ohio is nice to see. The setup as it stands right now is more of a MA special than anything else. 

 

 

 

EPS has a cluster similar but with double the members the signal is muted for now. I'm pretty tired of muddy d10+ threats. The fundamental differences with this compared to the Dec setup is a hp sliding NE instead of E and the wave coming up from the SE and not tracking across the midwest. Best opportunity we've seen but quite a few days away from taking seriously. 

IMHO- current ens guidance late in the period looks pretty much like a reload of the pattern. My total WAG is any relaxation a couple weeks down the line would be short lived but we've had a jump long range this year so anything is possible. 

 

 

Agree with everything. Also about long range. Yes it relaxes and around day 15 or so something could go up west after 5 days of solid cold but that's normal. It doesn't look like a return to the permanent eastern ridge state. Yes we will fight the se ridge all year but the higher heights around Greenland and Alaska seem to want to reload and the pacific looks way better. My take is also things are just reloading not regressing but it's 2 weeks out and we have a good threat window first so why worry yet anyways. 

[dallen7908]

Also, nice to see the 8-14 day forecast calls for normal temperatures and above normal precipitation with a 5 out of 5 in the confidence department. 

 

NAEFS shows a 4-5 day window of below normal temperatures beginning on the 6th with several of the ensembles showing precip on the 7th. 

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/EPSgrams_e.html

[BristowWx]

Just now, dallen7908 said:

Also, nice to see the 8-14 day forecast calls for normal temperatures and above normal precipitation with a 5 out of 5 in the confidence department. 

 

NAEFS shows a 4-5 day window of below normal temperatures beginning on the 6th

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/EPSgrams_e.html

The LR op GFS would agree.  Some very cold air entering the US moving SSE at the end of the run.  cut those anomalies in half and its still cold

[psuhoffman]

I know some are concerned the cold window will be brief then back to crap but the look across the northern hemisphere is completely different at day 15. Thinks will ebb and flow and we won't stay locked in a trough for weeks on end but if you look at the major pattern features globally they don't support being stuck in an endless eastern conus ridge either. The pv looks weak and displaced. The whole pattern in Asia is flipped. The huge wpo ridge. An nao that looks at least not hostile. Even the Pna seems moving towards a better look. I think any warm up in that look is brief before another reload.  If it looked like crap I would say so.  There is no way of knowing how favorable the details will be but I see nothing that alarms me right now.

[mdsnowlover]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know some are concerned the cold window will be brief then back to crap but the look across the northern hemisphere is completely different at day 15. Thinks will ebb and flow and we won't stay locked in a trough for weeks on end but if you look at the major pattern features globally they don't support being stuck in an endless eastern conus ridge either. The pv looks weak and displaced. The whole pattern in Asia is flipped. The huge wpo ridge. An nao that looks at least not hostile. Even the Pna seems moving towards a better look. I think any warm up in that look is brief before another reload.  If it looked like crap I would say so.  There is no way of knowing how favorable the details will be but I see nothing that alarms me right now.

Thanks for your update psuhoffman, good times possibly ahead. Peace

[kurtstack]

that alaskan ridge looks to be a feature that wants to stay in place for a while - that should continue to keep cold shots coming into north america - i think we will have at least a few storms to track in january. we will be in prime climo so we wont need perfect setups to score. we will likely be in the battle ground between the cold and warm air - and i could see several tainted events as the boundary shifts around - and maybe we time something right for a moderate event.


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[Thanatos_I_Am]

Take this with a grain of salt, mixed events skew snow totals higher, but still.. Looking pretty good here.

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

that alaskan ridge looks to be a feature that wants to stay in place for a while - that should continue to keep cold shots coming into north america - i think we will have at least a few storms to track in january. we will be in prime climo so we wont need perfect setups to score. we will likely be in the battle ground between the cold and warm air - and i could see several tainted events as the boundary shifts around - and maybe we time something right for a moderate event.


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Need that sucker to set up shop a bit further east. It has a tendency to want to retrograde back towards the Aleutians though.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Need that sucker to set up shop a bit further east. It has a tendency to want to retrograde back towards the Aleutians though.

Depending on how other moving parts line up its not the end of the world. Periods of blocking on the Atlantic side would make the AK ridge location just fine. And the pacific ridge looks to extend east for a solid period. After that who knows.  There are some signs the Pna might be less hostile. 2 weeks out things look ambiguous which is typical, but not hostile. Things look pretty typical overall. People forget how much luck we need even in a decent pattern, that's why our average snowfall is pretty modest, so I'm not guaranteeing results. But winter is 7 days old and I see nothing that makes me feel our situation is any more hopeless then is typical around here. I kind of chuckle when a bad op run fails to show a hit and people freak out. If we scored every time we had a legit threat opportunity we would average 50"+.  Our fail rate is pretty high so the freak out every bad run or missed opportunity is kind of funny. If it's March 1 and we are still waiting and a threat falls apart then I might join in on the woe is me banter but it's way too early for that silliness. 

[psuhoffman]

44 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Take this with a grain of salt, mixed events skew snow totals higher, but still.. Looking pretty good here.

The gefs mean is always skewed high by the mix issue but we're getting into "take notice" territory with that mean there. Even in December when it was close to that look I pointed out it was a false signal in some ways because a majority was ice and the mean was spread out over several low prob threats. This is mostly from one good defined threat window and while some of its ice it's not the majority. It's a good signal. It's also the first time the snow look extended well to our south also. Actually take out the snow this week to our north and the upslope mountain effect to our west, and the week 2 snow bullseye is over us. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

The gefs mean is always skewed high by the mix issue but we're getting into "take notice" territory with that mean there. Even in December when it was close to that look I pointed out it was a false signal in some ways because a majority was ice and the mean was spread out over several low prob threats. This is mostly from one good defined threat window and while some of its ice it's not the majority. It's a good signal. It's also the first time the snow look extended well to our south also. Actually take out the snow this week to our north and the upslope mountain effect to our west, and the week 2 snow bullseye is over us. 

Glad you mentioned that ice thing. There are members in there that have 8"+ of actual snow. Some with a lot more than that. Fewer GL screw jobs as well. Can't wait to see if EPS follows suit with a higher mean. Feeling good for that Jan. 5th-Jan. 10th window.