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January Medium/Long Range Discussion

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, usedtobe said:

Sounds like beyond the Jan 6-9 period I'm more bearish than most.  I still think that time period is alive though I'm hoping for a more organized shortwave than last night's guidance was showing but beyond day 5 that easily could happen as a number of ensemble member forecasts suggest.  Beyond that time frame,  the AK ridging looks like it could be retrograding a tad and that the mean trough is going to be in the west which would place a ridge in the east like the long range ensemble guidance is forecasting.  That seems to be the overall pattern this year and with the resultant Southwesterly flow it will be hard to get a nice 50 50 low in place to really lock in a negative NAO though the euro ensemble do show a negative height anomaly there.    I''m not yet sold on it.  With the trough in the west,    we do get cold shots in such a pattern but strong lows will go to our west and give us warming and then we'll have to hope we get a wave after the front pushes to our south.  We did well in 2014 with such a pattern but we had more of an extension into AK and western Canada if I'm not mistaken.   we need to get more of an eastward push to the Ak ridging to really optimize our chances of getting waves  on an arctic front to hit us.   Anyway, that's my thoughts this morning since I no longer do longer range outlooks at CWG unless the pattern is a a good one.

I don't doubt we go through a relaxation after the coming 5 day cold period. But I also have doubts we get stuck in a protracted eastern ridge pattern like the one we just suffered through.  The last time the AK ridge relaxed it completely fell apart replaced by troughinh over AK for a while. On top of that it coincided with a raging positive AO and NAO. It was an unholy trifecta for us. This time the Ak ridge retrogrades west of where we want it but it never appears to completely dissolve on the guidance. On top of that the AO and NAO seem much more cooperative this go around. I agree skepticism of that is wise and of those features are wrong then things get ugly, but the current tanking of the AO and NAO combined with the consistency and if anything stronger look to those features as we get closer has me hopeful there is some truth to it this time. If that's true I do not see the trough hanging totally in the west for long. The h5 look overall across the northern hemisphere day 15 just doesn't support it imho. I suppose it could be right about the eastern ridging and wrong about several other more significant pattern drivers around the globe but that seems counterintuitive to me. Also if you look at the individual runs of the ensembles and ops out that far what you see kind of belies the big long ridge look. Most pop a big ridge for a day or two with a cutter and then the cold returns or is about to return day 16. Some even have trouble cutting and force a low under us, granted with marginal temps. Due to timing differences at that range between members the ensemble mean washes it out and we see a protracted period of weaker ridging when in reality it might be one or two days of really high heights then back to colder. If, big if, the overall look is right I suspect the cold holds a little longer and what ends up happening is we do relax for a bit around Jan 14-18 or so but by the time it really warms up the cold is pushing again. Not weeks of ugh. The tendency of the Ak ridge to reform and poke east, along with hints the pna may be made bing towards more friendly territory, and signs of a better AO NAO configuration have me optimistic we don't have to wait too long before getting another window.  Is it Jan 18th, 20th, 25th who knows. But I don't think we're punting weeks on end after this current threat window. Just my 2 cents and probably not worth more then that.  This was my take based on last nights info.   I haven't digested any 12z stuff yet btw. Too busy so waited till it all comes in then I'll scan through and comment later. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

If you remember the 00z euro was suppressed so a compromise would be good.

That's not what is really going on here there. The euro wasn't suppressed by HP to the north last night. It was more progressive along the boundary without the nice confluence and hp to the north. The only difference between last night's euro and the 12z gfs was placement of the boundary and precip running along it. The type of storm was identical and neither look good. The things that made this attractive yesterday afternoon are slipping away for now. There's really no way to spin that. 

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Ender

Ender

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

i agree and yesterday was more concerned about the track being a tad too far north.  Today's ensemble mean still suggest quite a few southern track members so it's not over.  I think the key is how strong the shortwave digging southward in the northern stream gets and how fast it moves east.  Today's operational GFS and GGEM had it strong enough to back the flow which put a damper on how far south the cold air could get plus they had a high off the east coast and a low inland which is never a good combo.  Because of how much the models have waffled and how much trouble they often have handling those pesky northern stream shortwaves, nothing is off the table though I think the suppressed too much for precipitation idea is not very likely.

The operational run is also considerably faster, by at least 18-hours, than are over half the GEFS members. Either it's just faster, or its focusing on a very closely spaced lead s/w. I haven't looked at the 500mb yet, but there's gotta be a reason for such a significant timing difference. At this far out its probably as simple as differences in initialization of the individual s/w with the ensemble division resulting from those tiny errors. The CMC ENS mean also seems to point to a slower and further SE solution that does the operational CMC.

That said, if the GFS analog set is correct the D+8 period has just become borderline awful while the D+11 set is perhaps mediocre. I guess that depends whether you consider a 20% chance of >6" and an 80% chance of 0". With this year's track record that might feel like a good bet.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Bob and others have pointed out the negative changes to the day 7-10 threat. It's way more complicated then it was and we don't do complicated well. The trough axis is oriented more to our west meaning instead of a system attacking the cold we have to rely on perfect timing and placement of the boundary. It's still possible but the most troubling thing is how shrunk the area coverage of snow is in all guidance now compared to the idea 24 hours ago. That alone shows our reduced odds. Even if we're in a decent location the bullseye just got a lot smaller. On the positive side we're looking at several systems ejecting and complex can mess with the guidance so nothing is over. The period after this also has to be watched. I know it's being laughed at as a fantasy again but keep in mind we do way better with an established cold and relaxing nao then as the pattern sets in historically. One issue now is the multiple waves on the front are stalling the cold programs so we never get that nice look of entrenched cold with a high to our north and a system coming from the southwest. Perhaps once the waves all swing through we have a window as the cold relaxes. Way too much is fluid right now to say anything definitively. The last two runs were steps back imo I won't deny that but it's not time to jump completely yet. 

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Ender

Ender

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Piggybacking on what I said earlier this is the latest para gfs and op gfs look for what is supposed to be the big warm up period. I know it's just two runs but several ensemble members have something similar as well. Its why I'm not sold we warm up and get stuck in some super ridge again. 

 

...but the OP GFS H500 ends on an apocalyptic note. Well, not quite the apocalypse, but CONUS would be flooded with Pacific air, not to mention we could end up with the PV stuck over Alaska with with the OP's 384-hour solution. The GEFS mean, however, isn't all that horrible. Sure really warm east of the Rockies, but I can at least see how it'd end up cold by around the 25th. Everything would just have to move 5 to 10 degrees left or right and we'd be all set.  

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kurtstack

kurtstack

Posted
Posted

the ops are in the period of time where they are giving us a broad range of solutions - the ensembles show an above normal shot for snow and i will stick with those the next couple days til the ops settle down. I do think we get on the board with accumulating snow - even if tainted.


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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ender said:

...but the OP GFS H500 ends on an apocalyptic note. Well, not quite the apocalypse, but CONUS would be flooded with Pacific air, not to mention we could end up with the PV stuck over Alaska with with the OP's 384-hour solution. The GEFS mean, however, isn't all that horrible. Sure really warm east of the Rockies, but I can at least see how it'd end up cold by around the 25th. Everything would just have to move 5 to 10 degrees left or right and we'd be all set.  

I think I stated my case badly. My point was both the gfs and para gfs now have us snowing at a time when 48 hours ago they said there would be a pretty big ridge right over us. Yes the op gfs then, after a decent snow even, develops lower heights in Alaska and we probably warm. But I don't trust any of it given the changes already for day 12ish. Of course it will relax at some point and warm But at least the nao isn't a huge problem like last time that happened and given the seasonal trend would you expect the problems around AK to really last that long?  I don't think we're getting weeks on end of great looks. This isn't 1996 or 2003 or 2014. This is a typical year we will have to fight to eek our snowstorms. But I don't see signs we're doomed to hopeless long stretches ahead and a truly awful year yet. Maybe I'm being too optimistic.  My expectations are pretty modest this year.  just want to avoid those wretched under 10" at the airports type years and I think there are enough positive signs we can do that. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

the ops are in the period of time where they are giving us a broad range of solutions - the ensembles show an above normal shot for snow and i will stick with those the next couple days til the ops settle down


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Gefs actually upped the snow mean a bit but on the down side it's now split evenly between two windows instead of one so it's that old false positive thing again. On the bright side they do support the idea we have another chance around day 12-14 as the pattern relaxes. That's a typical way we roll around here so it doesn't shock me that period is becoming better as we get closer. It's disappointing the day 7-10 window is muddier though. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Bring it home Bob.   Help us Bob Kanobi, you're our only hope.

Regardless of the outcome, I'm definitely not mad at the shift away from driving hp deep and a sw-ne aligned boundary out in front. That part is a step back in the right direction at least. Gives room to amplify with cold feed above like previous runs have shown. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Nice shift @ h5 on the euro. Better confluence showing up fairly early with a nice 50/50 moving into place. 

Wouldn't it be nice to get a guaranteed 3-6" event early December each year to avoid these confounded mood swings on long range runs while waiting for our first snow when it's drags late into the year?   On another note I get the sense we are alone in our optimism "long" range. I read your post and agree we relax at some point but it wouldn't shock me if we get another threat in day 11-14 first then the relax is a few days not a few weeks. Maybe I'm totally missing it but I just don't see the evidence for the doom and gloom. 

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Ender

Ender

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Regardless of the outcome, I'm definitely not mad at the shift away from driving hp deep and a sw-ne aligned boundary out in front. That part is a step back in the right direction at least. Gives room to amplify with cold feed above like previous runs have shown. 

I'm getting a bit worried about what the Euro intends to do at about day nine. It might look good on this run, but I bet the trend won't be good. 

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bob Chill said:

Nope. But who the heck knows still. It's tenuous at best. lol

Well hopefully halts all the cliff jumping from a single GFS op run 7-8 days out. 

There's going to be a storm next Friday-Saturday.  Long wave pattern is fairly favorable for us.  Not much else to say yet.  

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