Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAVGEM has the followup wave way in the Western GOMex trying to develop and come N fwiw. Completely different look. This should instill a lot of confidence. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: This should instill a lot of confidence. Thanks. Lol, well, grasping at straws but isn't the NAVGEM usually fairly progressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 There ought to be a rule that no model can go out past five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 CMC develops the followup wave and tracks NE but mostly rain. Great Lakes SLP kills the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Rainstorm followed by ball shriveling cold....fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 It's one run. A solution that blows. Still early. If this was the Monday run then not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 CMC isn't greatSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Northern stream shortwave digs a lot more in this run and partially phases with the southern stream. This is a double bad whammy for us as it pulls the storm north and west while also setting up difluence to our north which weakens the cold high pressure. We want confluence to the north to reinforce the high. Could it be right? Sure, it somewhat follows the seasonal trend. But still 7 or more days out and this solution doesn't have much support yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 To think, models had a wall of 1040+ HP strung out from the Rockies to Maine just yesterday and now virtually zero semblance of HP at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: CMC isn't great Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Carbondale gets crushed tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 6z para was suppressed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 It is snowing out... This might be as much snow as I see all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 LOL, operational models are really honed in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Far from over, trends arent superb, but models are bouncing all over between the first wave being a player, the second wave, suppression, coastal track, etc. Dont like, as Bob noted, that sprawling HP is vanishing BUT we can still theoretically work with this setup, especially 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Northern stream shortwave digs a lot more in this run and partially phases with the southern stream. This is a double bad whammy for us as it pulls the storm north and west while also setting up difluence to our north which weakens the cold high pressure. We want confluence to the north to reinforce the high. Could it be right? Sure, it somewhat follows the seasonal trend. But still 7 or more days out and this solution doesn't have much support yet. I agree with Mitch that the adjustment towards the seasonal trend is most likely an early warning sign. We're getting into prime time for ensembles to really give us insight. We're still a few days away from fully understanding which shortwave will be the main player and how it will evolve though. All options are still on the table but the same thing happened with our Dec threat as time closed so the warm fuzzies I had yesterday are getting mixed with cold rainies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I agree with Mitch that the adjustment towards the seasonal trend is most likely an early warning sign. We're getting into prime time for ensembles to really give us insight. We're still a few days away from fully understanding which shortwave will be the main player and how it will evolve though. All options are still on the table but the same thing happened with our Dec threat as time closed so the warm fuzzies I had yesterday are getting mixed with cold rainies. Yup. I've been banging the drum that we should be more worried about this type of solution vs. some super suppressed slider. Lets see where the GEFS stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I agree with Mitch that the adjustment towards the seasonal trend is most likely an early warning sign. We're getting into prime time for ensembles to really give us insight. We're still a few days away from fully understanding which shortwave will be the main player and how it will evolve though. All options are still on the table but the same thing happened with our Dec threat as time closed so the warm fuzzies I had yesterday are getting mixed with cold rainies. And this one doesn't have a massive arctic dump 36 hours in front of it if this run is to be believed. The seasonal trend with models has been to overdo these cold pushes. They model as deep central us pushes that move east but end up being glancing blows that rebound quickly along the Miss river. For me one positive is that the ops are struggling mightily the past 36 hours or so in trying to pin this down and that the ens have been pretty steady with this storm and most have been south. I'm not telling anybody anything they don't know but we aren't going to know anything until Sun/Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 That mid month window I was talking about yesterday is still showing up. Although it is getting there with a different setup than yesterdays runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 I honestly feel really good about this one. Doesn't mean jack, but this inconsistency doesn't faze me even a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 CMC was actually very close to being something good. Just needed that 1025 Hp a little stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 GFS @312 is almost eye candy worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 CMC was actually very close to being something good. Just needed that 1025 Hp a little strongerOps are bouncing all over. Psuhoffman said yesterday, and I agree, very minor and subtle changes irt shortwaves embedded in the flow and timing will create huge differences at the surface. CMC went from a nice look 12z yesterday to a sheared out suppressed wave at 0z back to a coastal low now at 12z. Ensembles the way to go for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I like the fact that cold is near by at least. Dynamic cooling never works out for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I agree with Mitch that the adjustment towards the seasonal trend is most likely an early warning sign. We're getting into prime time for ensembles to really give us insight. We're still a few days away from fully understanding which shortwave will be the main player and how it will evolve though. All options are still on the table but the same thing happened with our Dec threat as time closed so the warm fuzzies I had yesterday are getting mixed with cold rainies. i agree and yesterday was more concerned about the track being a tad too far north. Today's ensemble mean still suggest quite a few southern track members so it's not over. I think the key is how strong the shortwave digging southward in the northern stream gets and how fast it moves east. Today's operational GFS and GGEM had it strong enough to back the flow which put a damper on how far south the cold air could get plus they had a high off the east coast and a low inland which is never a good combo. Because of how much the models have waffled and how much trouble they often have handling those pesky northern stream shortwaves, nothing is off the table though I think the suppressed too much for precipitation idea is not very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 23 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: GFS @312 is almost eye candy worthy Oh good, we are back to looking at almost eye candy at 312 hours. Story of this winter thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Oh good, we are back to looking at almost eye candy at 312 hours. Story of this winter thus far. I know it is chasing a unicorn at that range. But the GFS has been advertising a decent pattern for a storm during that period for a couple of days. NAO breaking down and a pseudo 50/50 in place. It's not a horrid look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 13 minutes ago, usedtobe said: i agree and yesterday was more concerned about the track being a tad too far north. Today's ensemble mean still suggest quite a few southern track members so it's not over. I think the key is how strong the shortwave digging southward in the northern stream gets and how fast it moves east. Today's operational GFS and GGEM had it strong enough to back the flow which put a damper on how far south the cold air could get plus they had a high off the east coast and a low inland which is never a good combo. Because of how much the models have waffled and how much trouble they often have handling those pesky northern stream shortwaves, nothing is off the table though I think the suppressed too much for precipitation idea is not very likely. Well, the 12z gefs was definitely a step back from 0z but not my a big margin or anything. A week out leaves a ton of room for significant shifts in the good or bad direction so as usual...we wait...and wait. I never thought this had big potential either way. The 12z euro yesterday (imo) was max potential. Setups like this when they work are much more likely to be in the 2-4/3-6 range. Which would be fine of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: Well, the 12z gefs was definitely a step back from 0z but not my a big margin or anything. A week out leaves a ton of room for significant shifts in the good or bad direction so as usual...we wait...and wait. I never thought this had big potential either way. The 12z euro yesterday (imo) was max potential. Setups like this when they work are much more likely to be in the 2-4/3-6 range. Which would be fine of course. If you remember the 00z euro was suppressed so a compromise would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 43 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: GFS @312 is almost eye candy worthy That is a Miler B setup. We don't do well with those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: That is a Miler B setup. We don't do well with those. Not really. GFS at 0z was nothing. Too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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