usedtobe Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Sounds like beyond the Jan 6-9 period I'm more bearish than most. I still think that time period is alive though I'm hoping for a more organized shortwave than last night's guidance was showing but beyond day 5 that easily could happen as a number of ensemble member forecasts suggest. Beyond that time frame, the AK ridging looks like it could be retrograding a tad and that the mean trough is going to be in the west which would place a ridge in the east like the long range ensemble guidance is forecasting. That seems to be the overall pattern this year and with the resultant Southwesterly flow it will be hard to get a nice 50 50 low in place to really lock in a negative NAO though the euro ensemble do show a negative height anomaly there. I''m not yet sold on it. With the trough in the west, we do get cold shots in such a pattern but strong lows will go to our west and give us warming and then we'll have to hope we get a wave after the front pushes to our south. We did well in 2014 with such a pattern but we had more of an extension into AK and western Canada if I'm not mistaken. we need to get more of an eastward push to the Ak ridging to really optimize our chances of getting waves on an arctic front to hit us. Anyway, that's my thoughts this morning since I no longer do longer range outlooks at CWG unless the pattern is a a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 9 hours ago, Bob Chill said: How about the nao on the gefs. Woah. Low heights in BC offset it at first but that looks like a major reload in the makings to me Hey Bob, I was just looking at that after catching up in here this morning. I assume you mean the later hours of the GEFS, out toward day 14-16. Loaded the hemispheric view on TT, and think I see what you mean after looping back and forth through that time. Are you referring to the higher heights building south of AK with a lobe pushing toward the Pole, in conjunction with the heights over Greenland? It's out there in time but could be interesting to watch in addition to the possible event late next week. My first impression was to think, yuck look at the higher heights in the eastern US. That must be associated with the low heights in BC you mentioned. But upon closer look they're not extremely high and then I saw what I believe you were talking about in terms of a possible reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 @usedtobe Great post Wes. I don't think my post about the nao came out right. I agree that the period following our possible storm window deteriorates and becomes less favorable. I was mostly trying to point out that I don't think the trough in the west and higher heights in the east will be static. And that IF (always a big if) the -nao is real then we could easily transition back to a good storm pattern without a drawn out waiting process. Eps mean temps are actually below normal underneath the higher heights d12-15. Makes you wonder a little what is really going on inside of the mean look. Ens have become more bullish recently with both the ao/nao in the long range. I find that intriguing. There have been cases of a compete reversal following a anomalous positive December mean but they are just less common than a carryfoward in Jan. I do agree with Isotherm that the strat is hostile towards this type of development but I also know that both the strat and nao regions aren't very good at giving a heads up when things are about to shake up. In some ways I wonder if the trop is going to drive the strat into a favorable mode and not the other way around this time. Seeing the gefs/eps up the -nao signal combined with the weeklies showing the same week 3 into 4 shouldnt be dicounted solely because the strat forecast is hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Remember what happened last time we had a little snow before a possible storm? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @usedtobe Great post Wes. I don't think my post about the nao came out right. I agree that the period following our possible storm window deteriorates and becomes less favorable. I was mostly trying to point out that I don't think the trough in the west and higher heights in the east will be static. And that IF (always a big if) the -nao is real then we could easily transition back to a good storm pattern without a drawn out waiting process. Eps mean temps are actually below normal underneath the higher heights d12-15. Makes you wonder a little what is really going on inside of the mean look. Ens have become more bullish recently with both the ao/nao in the long range. I find that intriguing. There have been cases of a compete reversal following a anomalous positive December mean but they are just less common than a carryfoward in Jan. I do agree with Isotherm that the strat is hostile towards this type of development but I also know that both the strat and nao regions aren't very good at giving a heads up when things are about to shake up. In some ways I wonder if the trop is going to drive the strat into a favorable mode and not the other way around this time. Seeing the gefs/eps up the -nao signal combined with the weeklies showing the same week 3 into 4 shouldnt be dicounted solely because the strat forecast is hostile. I will believe it when I see it wrt to a sustained -NAO. Yes we have seen, and will see some ridging in the NAO region transiently, but that is not a true block, and we get more and better chances when we have a blocky NA. That is probably not in the cards though. IMO the way to a more stable, favorable pattern is improvement out west. I am in agreement with usedtobe, in that we need some eastward adjustment in the AK ridge. It would seem that at some point the PNA would flip(there are hints of that down the line in the weeklies) and that combined with a -EPO would improve our odds of getting a favorable storm track, even without any legit NA blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Interesting 12z GFS out to 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 12z GFS has a more potent SW and more moisture in the plains/south...will be a better run for sure than 00/06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 hr 165 rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 GFS won't be making any friends. Much stronger shortwave and ridging out in front. Track is ok but the mid levels suck. Cold rain. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 12Z GFS looks a lot different through 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: GFS won't be making any friends. Much stronger shortwave and ridging out in front. Track is ok but the mid levels suck. Cold rain. lol Is it close to being snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: GFS won't be making any friends. Much stronger shortwave and ridging out in front. Track is ok but the mid levels suck. Cold rain. lol Just get me the moisture and a halfway decent track, Ill sweat about the temps later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Straight up rain storm. Meh..28 more runs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: Interesting 12z GFS out to 156 Definitely more SE Ridging vs 6z anyway. HP sliding East to Bermuda with return flow behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 That high on other guidance has seemed to disappear though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, PaEasternWX said: Is it close to being snow. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Just get me the moisture and a halfway decent track, Ill sweat about the temps later One of the flags starting to show up is lack of HP to the north now. Euro and gfs now hold back the HP too long instead of spreading it across the top. It can change of course but not good trends. That was the one thing that I really liked the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 That is the first wave/reinforcing cold air/fropa I mentioned earlier today. Our "threat" would be the trailing energy along the stalled front that is left behind and if anything can interact with it to form a storm or merely a weak suppressed wave that shoots off the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: One of the flags starting to show up is lack of HP to the north now. Euro and gfs now hold back the HP too long instead of spreading it across the top. It can change of course but not good trends. That was the one thing that I really liked the last couple of days. Yep, just mentioned that....If we're not high, no likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 What happened to the HP to the north? No cold air in place means no snow. Ninja'd by Bob of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: One of the flags starting to show up is lack of HP to the north now. Euro and gfs now hold back the HP too long instead of spreading it across the top. It can change of course but not good trends. That was the one thing that I really liked the last couple of days. That's what I;ve been noticing and comparing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 When we're getting some sweet 35f rain next Friday, just remember GFS had it first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One of the flags starting to show up is lack of HP to the north now. Euro and gfs now hold back the HP too long instead of spreading it across the top. It can change of course but not good trends. That was the one thing that I really liked the last couple of days. That was never the storm potential that was depicted for Jan 8. The first wave shown at 156 is the front runner. Guidance yesterday had more of the trailer being our player. eta: lets see what happens as the run progresses.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I obviously like the fact that the SW was stronger but yeah that run sucked for everyone because even the places cold enough for snow get some rather minimal precip. Ah well, its still 150+ hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That is the first wave/reinforcing cold air/fropa I mentioned earlier today. Our "threat" would be the trailing energy along the stalled front that is left behind and if anything can interact with it to form a storm or merely a weak suppressed wave that shoots off the Carolina coast. The whole setup is morphing into something that won't work well. We need HP over the top or nice dice for a good event unless we get that little lucky stripe along the boundary. I hate that. No wiggle room and heartbreak hotel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 But this run was good for carbondale! . Lol it figures they get snow and we get cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: The whole setup is morphing into something that won't work well. We need HP over the top or nice dice for a good event unless we get that little lucky stripe along the boundary. I hate that. No wiggle room and heartbreak hotel. I tend to agree. Followup wave is a positively tilted trof that shoots a sheared wave ots this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That was never the storm potential that was depicted for Jan 8. The first wave shown at 156 is the front runner. Guidance yesterday had more of the trailer being our player. eta: lets see what happens as the run progresses.... The potential requires sprawling HP over the top and out front of any shortwave. The euro and gfs are moving away from that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The whole setup is morphing into something that won't work well. We need HP over the top or nice dice for a good event unless we get that little lucky stripe along the boundary. I hate that. No wiggle room and heartbreak hotel. seasonal trend rules until it stops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 NAVGEM has the followup wave way in the Western GOMex trying to develop and come N fwiw. Completely different look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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