January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[yoda]

00z GEFS looks tasty

[Thanatos_I_Am]

00z GEFS looks tasty

Wxbell isn't loading for me that fast

[Ji]

We just have so few paths to snow. Parts of Maine got more snow tonight in 2 hours than dc will get this season. The dec 26 2010 storm was the worst...hitting the south...slipping over us and hitting the northeast. We are sick feast or famine since 1996

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[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

We just have so few paths to snow. Parts of Maine got more snow tonight in 2 hours than dc will get this season. The dec 26 2010 storm was the worst...hitting the south...slipping over us and hitting the northeast. We are sick feast or famine since 1996

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It's relative. If you want to compare us to Maine it's going to be an ugly comparison. But I would rather live where you do then Cincinnati. Then there are places that average way more snow in the Midwest but get way less 12"+ snows then you do. It's a pick your pleasure thing. It's feast or famine here as you say. But appreciate what we do well, big storms, instead of what we suck at, consistent snows, or you will be frustrated much of the time. 

[Bob Chill]

AT least after 3 years in a row of feasting we have some fat to live off of. It was skin and bones in 12-13

[Bob Chill]

Gefs upped mean qpf from 18z. Sweet run. Ens definitely don't agree with the op

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Gefs upped mean qpf from 18z. Sweet run. Ens definitely don't agree with the op

Looking at the members on Wxbell and I gotta say, they look tasty. A lot showing all/mostly snow. Definitely different from the OP.

[Bob Chill]

Gefs mean track and qpf field is very similar to the 12z euro op run. It nice to see guidance honing in on higher probs for the event as we move forward. Would feel a lot better if this was d5 though. Lol

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs upped mean qpf from 18z. Sweet run. Ens definitely don't agree with the op

Yes give them their chill pill please!

[PaEasternWX]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Gefs mean track and qpf field is very similar to the 12z euro op run. It nice to see guidance honing in on higher probs for the event as we move forward. Would feel a lot better if this was d5 though. Lol

Bob wouldn't you agree it is encouraging that only 1 or 2 of the members are cutters. 

[PaEasternWX]

What time is the euro 2 am?

[psuhoffman]

Just now, PaEasternWX said:

What time is the euro 2 am?

Go to bed. It will look the same when you wake up. 

[ldub23]

I think DC will have 20-25 inches of snow  in Jan and 2 feet  in FEB.  The pattern is  loaded with cold.

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs mean track and qpf field is very similar to the 12z euro op run. It nice to see guidance honing in on higher probs for the event as we move forward. Would feel a lot better if this was d5 though. Lol

 

 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes give them their chill pill please!

How about the nao on the gefs. Woah. Low heights in BC offset it at first but that looks like a major reload in the makings to me  

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

How about the nao on the gefs. Woah. Low heights in BC offset it at first but that looks like a major reload in the makings to me  

Yea. I've been trying subtly to say that if, BIG if, the overall look is close to right across the northern hemisphere in the long range I don't see a prolonged ridge in the east. Relax and reload not back into a crap pattern. Was arguing with isotherm (who I respect greatly) earlier that whild there are possible arguments why things could go wrong I don't see a compelling reason to worry too much about it right now. Some are making too much about PV this or that and strat warm stuff when we're heading into a really good pattern right now despite all that. I know the correlations but at this time the PV seems to be cooperating at h5 which is the level I care about most. Maybe it's a trap and it all goes to crap but I don't see enough evidence to feel that way now. 

[psuhoffman]

This is only 48 hours from now. Is it perfect no but our main problem is NOT the nao there. I get the sense people think it's being more hostile then it is in reality lately. 

[psuhoffman]

Great gefs run. Strong signal with the day 8-12 period. Then with the negative nao several members manage another snow event or at least mixed day 13-16 during our warm up. They look warmer but the blocking forces something under us and this time of year track can be the most important thing. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Ha. Woke up to this thread dry as a bone. I see why! EPS still looks good. Maybe I slight shift south? Not much. Same with 6z GEFS. Not particularly worried about the OPs right now.

[North Balti Zen]

It was not a lot of posts because people were sane and went to bed. No reason to be up for euro at this point. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

It was not a lot of posts because people were sane and went to bed. No reason to be up for euro at this point. 

Yes, this.  I'll wake up and check the discussion board within 2-3 days of a major event.  This is not the time to be losing sleep over weather.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Looks like the overnight idea on guidance was to send a wave/reinforcing front thru Jan 5-6 then trail the associated front along the deep South or Northern GOM. Then a wave will try to develop along the front...whether its a strung out wave that shears out around Hatteras or a juicier slp that tries to come North is tbd.

[Isotherm]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But now your making an argument that the weeklies are simply wrong. Your points are valid. The qbo and current PV status as well as the seasonal trend could make a solid case that the blocky look is incorrect. If the run is just wrong and we end up back in a +wpo +epo + ao + nao pattern like we are just escaping then of course it could be a crap pattern. Your points why that might happen are legit. On the other hand there are some arguments that could be made towards a less hostile outcome. I've read some stuff about west qbo weak cold enso years especially with low solar being more block friendly as the season progresses. I'm not an expert on that phenomenon and that seems like a lot of qualifiers but it is what it is.  I also wouldn't discount that we're entering a pretty good pattern in a few days with a developing -nao as we speak (albeit east based) with the hostile PV status you reference.  We have a legit threat right in front of us that argues there is some forcing in the hemispheric pattern going on in our favor. The future is muddy to me. I'm not rejoicing over this weekly run. But I'm not sold the pattern reverts to a protracted hostile look after Jan 10 or so either. I see lots of conflicting signals and I'm not sure which will win out in the end. 

I don't disagree with you, and think the upcoming period (Jan 5-11 specifically) is the most favorable pattern we have seen to date. Hopefully we capitalize in that window. Regarding the longer term, yes, there is literature that demonstrates a greater propensity for poleward pacific ridging in nina/w qbo years. Though concurrently, there are other variables destructively interfering. The z500 NHEM anomalies for december will show the core of the positive geopotential heights S of AK with some extension toward the pole. So for the winter thus far, I would say we have not seen a potent poleward ridge in the means. January's z500 mean will probably end up looking superior due to the magnitude / anomalous nature of the upcoming EPO block. The MJO provides support for a transient neg NAO. It is not terribly coherent, but it appears to be sufficient to induce some NATL jet slowing, otherwise model data would not be detecting that. However, it is still a D10+ signature, and geopotential heights are quite low up through the strat. The NAO heights will likely be predominately SE of Greenland. I am not sure I buy the full scale D15 greenland block the EPS is suggesting right now, but we will revisit.

[CAPE]

Just took a quick glance at the 0z EPS. About 28 members have a storm of some magnitude hitting at least a portion of our region resulting in accumulating snow, with about equal amounts favoring NW and SE. Some of these are big hits, some minor. Most of the rest have a storm suppressed to our south, and some others don't have much of anything. Only a few members suggest a low track to our west or overhead. Of course there are timing differences/possibly keying on different waves. The signal is there and favoring a more southern track.

[midatlanticweather]

Look at that! Cool! 

 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Look at that! Cool! 

 

 

I believe wave breaking might also be responsible for the - NAO we are seeing develop

This animation that HM posted is a cool one , from a few days ago

 

 

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

The stronger push and more sw to ne orientation of the front Jan 5ish adds some complexity. It's a catch 22. It reduces the chances of a true lakes cutter. It also allows perhaps slightly more potential for a bigger system by having a deeper vs flat trough. It also requires s stronger system or we will get missed out to sea. It adds another level of complexity to what was a simpler solution. I'd probably take the look from yesterday myself, simple wave along a broad flat trough boundary, over needing a bit more to come together in this slightly morphed look today. It's still a good setup and likely to change again by the time we get closer. 

[frd]

Holy abyss :-)  

Granted, not overwhelming consensus currently, but noticing the huge trend change should raise an eyebrow.

That is the most significant drop in the ensemnble forecast in regards to a negative AO I have seen in a while.

Of course, no way to know what happens ,but still interesting. There were some signals a few days ago regarding  

PV displacement and weakening coming up.  Also of note is the day 10 to 15 big time - NAO forecast some have mentioned here.

No idea of correlation with this forecasted drop in the AO but these two factors could lead to some interesting weather if they come to reality.   

[psuhoffman]

One positive is the favorable AO and NAO look has held in the longer term for several runs and is moving closer in time.  With that look up top it would be hard to get stuck in any prolonged ridging. I wouldn't be surprised (if that's correct) to see guidance move away from ridging in the east. We will relax from the real cold shot say 8-10 but I wouldn't expect major or prolonged warmth in that overall pattern after. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The stronger push and more sw to ne orientation of the front Jan 5ish adds some complexity. It's a catch 22. It reduces the chances of a true lakes cutter. It also allows perhaps slightly more potential for a bigger system by having a deeper vs flat trough. It also requires s stronger system or we will get missed out to sea. It adds another level of complexity to what was a simpler solution. I'd probably take the look from yesterday myself, simple wave along a broad flat trough boundary, over needing a bit more to come together in this slightly morphed look today. It's still a good setup and likely to change again by the time we get closer. 

Agreed, there is alot more that can go wrong now with this setup depicted overnight at 0Z then when we had a basically broad trof with a general w->e orientation to the flow on guidance yesterday. Still think the folks in this subforum are in a good spot right now. No reason to throw up the white flag based on one suite of guidance 7+ days out.