WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, supernovasky said: So who's staying up for the Euro? Nobody sane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 So who's staying up for the Euro?Something tells me I'll be awake at 2:15 am.. Need an excuse for the woman though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 After seeing the Gfs no point. But seriously wasn't going to stay up anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Nobody sane. I just need to see it before my hopes are dashed completely Damnit this is the one downfall of living in eastern time. Euro is way late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Well if you look at that... something incoming at 240. We will see what happens. Will update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: I just need to see it before my hopes are dashed completely Damnit this is the one downfall of living in eastern time. Euro is way late. My advice is keep your hopes in check. Listen to people like Bob and PSU and put your faith in the pattern. 8-10 days on op runs is way too far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just joined the board! Moved to Maryland in April from Georgia. Being from the south, snow is my favorite weather event, so here's hoping we can reel this one in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 what only 32 or so more runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, chris624wx said: Just joined the board! Moved to Maryland in April from Georgia. Being from the south, snow is my favorite weather event, so here's hoping we can reel this one in! Welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, chris624wx said: Just joined the board! Moved to Maryland in April from Georgia. Being from the south, snow is my favorite weather event, so here's hoping we can reel this one in! Welcome and do try to stay sane with all of us tracking the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: Well if you look at that... something incoming at 240. We will see what happens. Will update. Update: Looks like rain but that will change a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 5 hours ago, PaEasternWX said: @psuhoffman what is preventing the storm as depicted on the GFS from deepening more and coming up the coast. The overall long wave trough axis. It's fairly broad and flat, and suppressed under some blocking. Our suppression is richmonds snow. New York's suppression is our snow. We don't know yet where the boundary will be. It's shifting a bit each run. But the flow is fairly flat. If the look we have been seeing is accurate (still a huge if) then this type of system is likely to move more west to east then south to north. The bit of ridging holding on in the southeast could help it gain some latitude though. Also a stronger vort and a bit more dig and perhaps...but that's a dangerous game because too much and we're watching this trend to an interior event. Still some ku storms were open wave overrunning driven events. Usually not massive total type storms with the exception of pd2 but we can get very good storms this way. Pd2 had a truly arctic high in perfect spot with a Nino enhanced stj so let's rule that out btw. This as it's constituted now (I haven't started to look at 0z stuff yet) isn't a dynamic type event but more a clash of air masses along the baroclinoc boundary. A decent wave can produce great results in this setup if we are lucky enough to be just a bit on the cold side but not too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Too bad the run truncated... 240 to 252 is a complete QPF change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Hr 252. Don't know what happens between frames but not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I think at this point we should be more concerned with the ensembles, yes?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Too bad the run truncated... 240 to 252 is a complete QPF change The whole run is pretty suspect really. The storm we are watching seems really sensitive to the energy we get in the sw. This run there was very little to work with. Heights along the se coast were higher so a storm of any significance would have easily tracked more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Have to wait for the meteogram, but 00z GGEM late next week has the overrunning idea for the first part and then misses us with the 2nd system to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Have to wait for the meteogram, but 00z GGEM late next week has the overrunning idea for the first part and then misses us with the 2nd system to the southNice light flurries! Ha, on TT I see a couple of inches around DC. Not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Cmc blows Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 We really should not be looking for any details at this range, all we should be concerned with is that potential exists for a winter storm in the January 6-8 time frame. We can start looking at things in more detail early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 gfs suppressed weak and washed out - euro wrapped up and well north - the answer probably lies in between those two op runsSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 13 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I think at this point we should be more concerned with the ensembles, yes? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes but some are getting way too detailed for a day 8-11 window that isn't even defined to a specific vort yet. Just looked at the 0z gfs. It's fine. We're actually looking at 3 vorts ejecting from the west during our window. Each is more likely to be north of the previous. Euro control was a weenie run by overlapping all 3 and crushing us. Gfs mucks up the first two by ejecting them too close together and running interference. The 3rd then clips us with something at least. I'm not wasting time over analyzing that mess. Could it be right sure. Or one of those vorts isn't there allowing the other to develop and nail us. Or the first two go south and the 3rd north and we cry. Who knows we're walking minor differences for that lead time. It's all equally possible. Notice for everyone crying about the big warmup after it's gone on the 0z. Has a 1040 arctic high over Wisconsin day 13 and another window if something can organize along the stalled boundary to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 12 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: Hr 252. Don't know what happens between frames but not a bad look. ahhhhhh the 10 day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The whole run is pretty suspect really. The storm we are watching seems really sensitive to the energy we get in the sw. This run there was very little to work with. Heights along the se coast were higher so a storm of any significance would have easily tracked more north. Two vorts ejected too close together and so nothing was able to get going. They split the potential energy. Weaken or spread one of them out and it's a different solution. Way too far out to worry about that kind of timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, kurtstack said: gfs suppressed weak and washed out - euro wrapped up and well north - the answer probably lies in between those two op runs Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk EURO OP was probably the highest/best we could see out of this period IMO... well besides the EURO control weenie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 We live in a pitiful area. Too south for miller bs...too north for suppressed events...too many mountains to our west. I wonder how it ever snows here lolSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Para gfs with a lakes cutter bit even so we manage a few inches front side. Shows the range of options how we can still eek out snow in a less then ideal way given this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ji said: We live in a pitiful area. Too south for miller bs...too north for suppressed events...too many mountains to our west. I wonder how it ever snows here lol Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk You are in mid season form tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 We live in a pitiful area. Too south for miller bs...too north for suppressed events...too many mountains to our west. I wonder how it ever snows here lolSent from my SM-G930V using TapatalkYeah Ji, I guess yearly HECS isn't too much to ask, right? Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Compared to my area you guys have it good. We constantly get flooded by warm air almost every storm. We walk a fine line every time. We literally missed out on 12+ last year by 50 miles. So don't take your big storms for granted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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