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January Medium/Long Range Discussion

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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RDM

RDM

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Quick weeklies synopsis:

Only relaxation is during part of week 3. -NAO sig pretty solid late week 3 into week 4. Ridge builds out west with a trough in the east during week 3 and never really goes away through mid-Feb. If the weeklies are correct in general we would have a real chance at another decent winter. That's 2 runs in a row that looked pretty good. 

Hope that pans out Bob, for you in MOCO and all of us in the MA.  Would love to see a nice solid pattern setup.  While I learn a lot from you and others when things are iffy during the pursuit of hope in the LR models, I'd love a few solid weeks of confidence.  Keeping fingers crossed here...

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
Quick weeklies synopsis:

Only relaxation is during part of week 3. -NAO sig pretty solid late week 3 into week 4. Ridge builds out west with a trough in the east during week 3 and never really goes away through mid-Feb. If the weeklies are correct in general we would have a real chance at another decent winter. That's 2 runs in a row that looked pretty good. 


Are these the same weeklies that were a disaster last week that created chaos in the panic thread?

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z gefs member 500s for the day 8 timeframe.

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Day 10 also has threats

 

 

 

I think it's mostly different timing with the primary shortwave and which one is amplified.  2 separate storms is possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.  

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leo1000

leo1000

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Quick weeklies synopsis:

Only relaxation is during part of week 3. -NAO sig pretty solid late week 3 into week 4. Ridge builds out west with a trough in the east during week 3 and never really goes away through mid-Feb. If the weeklies are correct in general we would have a real chance at another decent winter. That's 2 runs in a row that looked pretty good. 

Now that is what you would call a cold/snowy sustained pattern. 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Could be but there's definitely  a cluster of 2 wave members that hit us twice 48 - 60 hours apart. Just another possibility. 

I'm with WxUSAF on this one.  I think you're seeing the same storm at different time frames. The next two storms on the gfs are rainers.  Of course that means little.

The good news from the two storm look is, IMO, the storm is showing on just about all of the ensembles.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, leo1000 said:

Now that is what you would call a cold/snowy sustained pattern. 

 

Verbatim, they're warmer than normal on the majority of days from January 11th through early February with transient interludes of cold. The low geopotential heights near British Columbia and lower latitude Aleutian ridge precludes the sustained cold that would have otherwise developed with a negative NAO. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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40 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Verbatim, they're warmer than normal on the majority of days from January 11th through early February with transient interludes of cold. The low geopotential heights near British Columbia and lower latitude Aleutian ridge precludes the sustained cold that would have otherwise developed with a negative NAO. 

Your right about the cold but I often notice a disconnect between the h5 and surface temps on those weekly products. Given a choice between the two I'll take that h5 look over a few weeks ago when there was a mid dec run that was pretty darn cold at the surface and people were celebrating and I hated the h5 look for snow chances. I'm not blind to the correlation between cold and snow but I'll take my chances on a decent h5 and hope the temps work out over a crap h5 with storms cutting north every few days. Even if cold overall that screams cold dry warm wet. I wouod rather marginal temps and a vort tracking under me then ice cold and a storm cutting into the lakes. Maybe that's my location and elevation bias as I tend to end up on the winning side of marginal temp situations. I liked the weekly look overall. Not cold but I can extrapolate a decent storm track on that pattern and I also think they are too warm overall when the trough is in the east. I don't worry about surface plots on long range guidance anyways. 

ETA:  snowfall mean would back that up as it's a much much much snowier run overall then even the one that was a "cold" run several weeks ago that had some celebrating. Not that I take a mean snowfall for a 46 day product seriously but it indicates warmth or not there must be storm chances with favorable tracks in that pattern. I don't much care what the temperature is when it's not precipitating. We're not Vermont most years we're not holding snowpack anyways so I'm not wasting my time on that unrealistic chase. 

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Your right about the cold but I often notice a disconnect between the h5 and surface temps on those weekly products. Given a choice between the two I'll take that h5 look over a few weeks ago when there was a mid dec run that was pretty darn cold at the surface and people were celebrating and I hated the h5 look for snow chances. I'm not blind to the correlation between cold and snow but I'll take my chances on a decent h5 and hope the temps work out over a crap h5 with storms cutting north every few days. Even if cold overall that screams cold dry warm wet. I wouod rather marginal temps and a vort tracking under me then ice cold and a storm cutting into the lakes. Maybe that's my location and elevation bias as I tend to end up on the winning side of marginal temp situations. I liked the weekly look overall. Not cold but I can extrapolate a decent storm track on that pattern and I also think they are too warm overall when the trough is in the east. I don't worry about surface plots on long range guidance anyways. 

 

I agree that z500 looked superior to the sfc depiction. I don't see any mechanism to force a protracted negative NAO at this time, so I'm very skeptical of that feature, but we'll see. The decaying MJO divergence signal at z200 as it propagates ewd is likely what models are utilizing as an impetus for a transient -NAO period for the second week of Jan. The magnitude is still in doubt. Wave-1 hit to decrease over the next week; however, we will have a propitious precursor pattern to initiate a robust wave-2 assault on the stratospheric vortex, probably peaking circa Jan 20-25. The question becomes, is it sufficiently strong to induce significant perturbation and subsequently a sudden warming event, thereby altering the atmospheric geopotential height profile for the ensuing weeks. My guess is it won't, but the point is, I don't see the stratospheric support for a modelled protracted negative NAO signature through most of January. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

I agree that z500 looked superior to the sfc depiction. I don't see any mechanism to force a protracted negative NAO at this time, so i'm very skeptical of that feature, but we'll see. Wave-1 hit to decrease over the next week; however, we will have a propitious precursor pattern to initiate a robust wave-2 assault on the stratospheric vortex, probably peaking circa Jan 20-25. The question becomes, is it sufficiently strong to induce significant perturbation and subsequently a sudden warming event, thereby altering the atmospheric geopotential height profile for the ensuing weeks. My guess is it won't, but the point is, I don't see the stratospheric support for a modelled protracted negative NAO signature through most of January. 

But now your making an argument that the weeklies are simply wrong. Your points are valid. The qbo and current PV status as well as the seasonal trend could make a solid case that the blocky look is incorrect. If the run is just wrong and we end up back in a +wpo +epo + ao + nao pattern like we are just escaping then of course it could be a crap pattern. Your points why that might happen are legit. On the other hand there are some arguments that could be made towards a less hostile outcome. I've read some stuff about west qbo weak cold enso years especially with low solar being more block friendly as the season progresses. I'm not an expert on that phenomenon and that seems like a lot of qualifiers but it is what it is.  I also wouldn't discount that we're entering a pretty good pattern in a few days with a developing -nao as we speak (albeit east based) with the hostile PV status you reference.  We have a legit threat right in front of us that argues there is some forcing in the hemispheric pattern going on in our favor. The future is muddy to me. I'm not rejoicing over this weekly run. But I'm not sold the pattern reverts to a protracted hostile look after Jan 10 or so either. I see lots of conflicting signals and I'm not sure which will win out in the end. 

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