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January Medium/Long Range Discussion

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, frd said:

Bob any insights on the pattern end of Jan and Feb. ?

I posted my thoughts eariler today within this thread. Some say, and I can see why, the pattern may reload and we get a - AO and a + PNA in Feb.  Even those who were conservative in thier winter forecasts ( Mets )   are seemingly going with a weakening PV and increased blocking as we head towards mid and late Jan.

There is also some who say March may deliver this year depending if the LaNina like atmospheric responses weaken . 

Any thoughts ? 

 

 

 

 

  

This is a hard year to project very far and it's difficult in any year. So many conflicting signals. I've read some stuff that suggests west QBO years become somewhat more favorable for blocking later in low solar years. That seems like a lot of qualifiers and I'm no expert on the qbo. As for the PNA, there seems to a cycle in the PAC and each run through the AK ridge seems to cycle more east and the pna gets closer to neutral. That combined with the fact that it should flip eventually even if just a temp change argues there could be a favorable pna period. Time that up with some help in other ways and we could get a nice period. We tend to do late winter well recently anyways. No reason to think we're doomed on the long range. Mostly it's muddy and that's normal and fine. 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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Posted

IMO, here's where we are.  There's going to be a storm.  Too many runs, too many models have it.

And, it's going to be well north of where it's modeled.  Seasonal trend with cold air push and predominant storm track. 

For those reasons, I think we are sitting in a really good spot right now.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Also, being new to tracking these types of storms, what is the classification of this storm? I was reading about clippers, Miller A - Miller B, etc, but I don't recall a storm like this in the examples.

It's a hybrid setup. If the primary tracks west and jumps it's a miller b by definition by not a classic miller b. If it tracks under us it's more of a miller A. 

Since it starts so far south we probably wouldn't get whiffed and that's the biggest concern with transfers 

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kurtstack

kurtstack

Posted
Posted
Also, being new to tracking these types of storms, what is the classification of this storm? I was reading about clippers, Miller A - Miller B, etc, but I don't recall a storm like this in the examples.


a602a08188923e3085ab752481bcfa29.png

jan 1996 is one example - there are several others


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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a hybrid setup. If the primary tracks west and jumps it's a miller b by definition by not a classic miller b. If it tracks under us it's more of a miller A. 

Since it starts so far south we probably wouldn't get whiffed and that's the biggest concern with transfers 

Agreed. We would at least get the front end of it. I hate jumpers so much though. That damn dry slot loves west of 95 too much.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

Still a lot of uncertainty portrayed by the run-to-run changes in the axis and strength of the NAO and SE/WA ridges.  

These subtleties matter to us as far as storm track.  Given the seasonal pattern, I'd still wager a n/w track is more of a risk to us than a suppressed partly cloudy solution.  

 

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kurtstack

kurtstack

Posted
Posted
Still a lot of uncertainty portrayed by the run-to-run changes in the axis and strength of the NAO and SE/WA ridges.  

These subtleties matter to us as far as storm track.  Given the seasonal pattern, I'd still wager a n/w track is more of a risk to us than a suppressed partly cloudy solution.  

 


I agree. I think too far northwest track is the greatest concern at this point - as wes said i would rather see a more suppressed look at this range - still a lot of changes ahead so we will see.


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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, kurtstack said:


I agree. I think too far northwest track is the greatest concern at this point - as wes said i would rather see a more suppressed look at this range - still a lot of changes ahead so we will see.


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Assuming we would all prefer a more suppressed look at this stage, 18z GEFS and 12z para are in line with our wishes.  Haven't looked at individual members yet, but 18z GEFS mean looks sort of like the 12z op solution but more strung out and spread out given the differences in timing.  

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Quick weeklies synopsis:

Only relaxation is during part of week 3. -NAO sig pretty solid late week 3 into week 4. Ridge builds out west with a trough in the east during week 3 and never really goes away through mid-Feb. If the weeklies are correct in general we would have a real chance at another decent winter. That's 2 runs in a row that looked pretty good. 

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