January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Walking the line. Primary drives into N WV so mid levels suffer. But not after a decent 6-10" shellacking. It's a pretty classic thump before flip with that track. Good HP sprawled north of us. 

That track historically does not favor this area.  We'll need that high to our north to really hold fast.

[PaEasternWX]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Still a lot of spread but the euro ens "generally" support a more northern hit like the op. The control run is a destruction. It's a 2 wave deal with the first hitting central/southern VA and then us. 

Scanning through member output leaves little confidence in any one outcome and the shift overall wasn't very significant. 

Bob the control run if it panned out that way would be good for both our regions. 6-12 inches of snow it looks like.

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Still a lot of spread but the euro ens "generally" support a more northern hit like the op. The control run is a destruction. It's a 2 wave deal with the first hitting central/southern VA and then us. 

Scanning through member output leaves little confidence in any one outcome and the shift overall wasn't very significant. 

How does the general 500mb pattern look?

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

How does the general 500mb pattern look?

Less of a suppression risk like 0z had. Backed off on the depth of the trough and also the low height anomaly near NS. Overall, the h5 pattern is pretty ripe for our area. 

Around 14 ens members + control has over 6"+ for the metros. Almost half would hit WSW criteria for at least part of the area. Great run IMO but still plenty to be nervous about. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Still a lot of spread but the euro ens "generally" support a more northern hit like the op. The control run is a destruction. It's a 2 wave deal with the first hitting central/southern VA and then us. 

Scanning through member output leaves little confidence in any one outcome and the shift overall wasn't very significant. 

A good number of the eps members have the look of the op.  Several still show the southern solution but not nearly as many as at 0z.  The mean snow stripe looks to have shifted a good 100 miles north.

A storm is all I think I could say at this point.

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Less of a suppression risk like 0z had. Backed off on the depth of the trough and also the low height anomaly near NS. Overall, the h5 pattern is pretty ripe for our area. 

Around 14 ens members + control has over 6"+ for the metros. Almost half would hit WSW criteria for at least part of the area. Great run IMO but still plenty to be nervous about. 

Sounds good. Agree there's still risk of failure given that we're 8 days away  from the window starting. But have to like where we are for now. We've had, what, 2-3 days of quite good consistency on the pattern between the euro and GFS ensembles?

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That track historically does not favor this area.  We'll need that high to our north to really hold fast.

That setup historically does favor this area with a low coming up from the gulf.  It's a pretty standard way to get an event. We've had many. If the low was tracking the midwest then no, N WV is not good but as depicted is definitely a snowstorm. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

That setup historically does favor this area with a low coming up from the gulf.  It's a pretty standard way to get an event. We've had many. If the low was tracking the midwest then no, N WV is not good but as depicted is definitely a snowstorm. 

It's a great track.  Probably flirt with a changeover briefly and dry slot but the thump would be great.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Sounds good. Agree there's still risk of failure given that we're 8 days away  from the window starting. But have to like where we are for now. We've had, what, 2-3 days of quite good consistency on the pattern between the euro and GFS ensembles?

Yea, there has been decent consistency considering the lead. The 12z eps was a step in the positive direction as well...but a couple more bumps north and it's lights out...lol

EPS backed off on the eastern ridge return down the line. Lower heights showing in eastern canada along with a better -nao. The aluetian ridge has proven resilient once already even though it didn't do anything for us so my guess is that feature will be stubborn. I kinda doubt we go right back to a multi day eastern ridge as quick as ens show it. Maybe a break before another front or something like that. Seems like a winter type pattern wants to set up and stick around a little while. Looks to favor the west as it stands right now but imho colder air will make it's way here even with the western trough on the means. 

[PaEasternWX]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, there has been decent consistency considering the lead. The 12z eps was a step in the positive direction as well...but a couple more bumps north and it's lights out...lol

EPS backed off on the eastern ridge return down the line. Lower heights showing in eastern canada along with a better -nao. The aluetian ridge has proven resilient once already even though it didn't do anything for us so my guess is that feature will be stubborn. I kinda doubt we go right back to a multi day eastern ridge as quick as ens show it. Maybe a break before another front or something like that. Seems like a winter type pattern wants to set up and stick around a little while. Looks to favor the west as it stands right now but imho colder air will make it's way here even with the western trough on the means. 

Bob in your opinion what is the high end potential. Is there any potential for this to be anything more than a MECS.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, PaEasternWX said:

Bob in your opinion what is the high end potential. Is there any potential for this to be anything more than a MECS.

The potential for it to be nothing is probably much higher that the probability for it to be more than a MECS.

[PaEasternWX]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The potential for it to be nothing is probably much higher that the probability for it to be more than a MECS.

Good point. But hey its cool that Bob was correct when he said we would have something to track by the weekend.

[ravensrule]

7 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

Good point. But hey its cool that Bob was correct when he said we would have something to track by the weekend.

Bob is a genie ass . I love you Bob .

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

Bob in your opinion what is the high end potential. Is there any potential for this to be anything more than a MECS.

It's not a classic coastal and a relatively fast mover so high end is probably what the euro showed (6-10). Its a progressive system and not a closed H5 low so based on past history events like this usually produce 3-6\4-8. 

One way to get a bigger event like 10+ is to have 2 waves run the boundary and hit the same area. Like what the control showed. 

We're a long long ways from talking real #s. Getting nothing is still a sizeable portion of the spread.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Bob is a genie ass . I love you Bob .

I'm a good guesser. Except when it comes to against the spread in the nfl. Thankfully my gambling days are far behind me.

[frd]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, there has been decent consistency considering the lead. The 12z eps was a step in the positive direction as well...but a couple more bumps north and it's lights out...lol

EPS backed off on the eastern ridge return down the line. Lower heights showing in eastern canada along with a better -nao. The aluetian ridge has proven resilient once already even though it didn't do anything for us so my guess is that feature will be stubborn. I kinda doubt we go right back to a multi day eastern ridge as quick as ens show it. Maybe a break before another front or something like that. Seems like a winter type pattern wants to set up and stick around a little while. Looks to favor the west as it stands right now but imho colder air will make it's way here even with the western trough on the means. 

Bob any insights on the pattern end of Jan and Feb. ?

I posted my thoughts eariler today within this thread. Some say, and I can see why, the pattern may reload and we get a - AO and a + PNA in Feb.  Even those who were conservative in thier winter forecasts ( Mets )   are seemingly going with a weakening PV and increased blocking as we head towards mid and late Jan.

There is also some who say March may deliver this year depending if the LaNina like atmospheric responses weaken . 

Any thoughts ? 

 

 

 

 

  

[Bob Chill]

I never look/think much past 2 weeks. This is a tricky year. No real hand has been shown except a bias towards a ser/war/Aleutian ridge. My guess is the blocking were seeing will be transient for now. If it grows in strength in general over the next 2 weeks then we're in good shape down the line. If we flip back to a big +ao/nao we're probably in trouble for another stretch. 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I never look/think much past 2 weeks. This is a tricky year. No real hand has been shown except a bias towards a ser/war/Aleutian ridge. My guess is the blocking were seeing will be transient for now. If it grows in strength in general over the next 2 weeks then we're in good shape down the line. If we flip back to a big +ao/nao we're probably in trouble for another stretch. 

Thanks Bob 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That track historically does not favor this area.  We'll need that high to our north to really hold fast.

That track is fine if you have legit cold in place and you don't mind getting dry slot or ending as sleet. That track with cold in place is one of our more common ways to get an old fashioned 4-8" (or sometimes more) event ending as some ice. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

That setup historically does favor this area with a low coming up from the gulf.  It's a pretty standard way to get an event. We've had many. If the low was tracking the midwest then no, N WV is not good but as depicted is definitely a snowstorm. 

He seems to be getting worse. And I agree about the midwest track but just to show what having a favorable h5 pattern can do the ggem tracks the low pretty far north through the Midwest and we still manage a foot of snow. That's about as far north as we can live with even with cold but this pattern gives us several paths to victory versus our usual wing and a prayer. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, there has been decent consistency considering the lead. The 12z eps was a step in the positive direction as well...but a couple more bumps north and it's lights out...lol

EPS backed off on the eastern ridge return down the line. Lower heights showing in eastern canada along with a better -nao. The aluetian ridge has proven resilient once already even though it didn't do anything for us so my guess is that feature will be stubborn. I kinda doubt we go right back to a multi day eastern ridge as quick as ens show it. Maybe a break before another front or something like that. Seems like a winter type pattern wants to set up and stick around a little while. Looks to favor the west as it stands right now but imho colder air will make it's way here even with the western trough on the means. 

The huge ridge in the east has looked suspect to me the last few days. Looking at the long wave pattern and higher heights above us it just didn't make much sense. At least not as more then a transitory ridge before another cold shot.  But we're talking way out there anyways. A good threat to get through first. 

[PaEasternWX]

18z GFS is a great run for mid atl. Looks like 4-8.

[Bob Chill]

18z gfs is perfectly acceptable. Nice run. 

[poolz1]

GFS coming around to the look of the euro....about 24 hours slower.  All 3 globals in relative agreement.  Let the nail biting begin...

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gfs is perfectly acceptable. Nice run. 

Unless you're in Carbondale 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gfs is perfectly acceptable. Nice run. 

I'd take that right now and lock it up.  No more gambling.  I'm taking my winnings and going home. 

[PaEasternWX]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Unless you're in Carbondale 

Good one.

[Bob Chill]

INTERIOR central MD and Nova special. 

[PaEasternWX]

pretty much 4-8 from DC to NYC. We all cash in.

[stormtracker]

Just now, PaEasternWX said:

pretty much 4-8 from DC to NYC. We all cash in.