WxUSAF Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Not a good spot to be 8 days out...with a 1050 HP to the north...really Are you trying to troll or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Feels like it's a year away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 How can you get mad at a panel like this? This is a textbook snow event for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Feels like it's a year away Might as well be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The euro really doesn't add anything to the discussion. It's just a possible outcome at long leads. The entire pattern/premise remains intact so far today. Looks like the euro is faster with the storm too - looks like a january 6th deal this run.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Are you trying to troll or something? He's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: How can you get mad at a panel like this? This is a textbook snow event for our area. Oh damn..that is a pretty nice setup. Bump that high up to 1040, moving it just a bit south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The euro really doesn't add anything to the discussion. It's just a possible outcome at long leads. The entire pattern/premise remains intact so far today. Truth. It might snow and it might not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, kurtstack said: Looks like the euro is faster with the storm too - looks like a january 6th deal this run. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The run was well within the ensemble spread. We're surviving another suite so far. I expect the ens to up the ante again. They "generally" follow the ops lead inside of 9 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The euro really doesn't add anything to the discussion. It's just a possible outcome at long leads. The entire pattern/premise remains intact so far today. There's a huge range of outcomes on the GEFS. Euro has quite a different solution vs the 0z run. Lots of possibilities on the table, but the pattern is favorable for snow for us starting around the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 No I was looking at wrong thing. At the movies on my phone. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Oh damn..that is a pretty nice setup. Bump that high up to 1040, moving it just a bit south.. Compare the NAO and 50:50 low on the euro and GEFS. Euro never pushes the NAO ridge far west, which allows this storm to come farther north. Given the seasonal trend, I think that's more likely than seeing some suppressed storm that snows on Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: No I was looking at wrong thing. At the movies on my phone. Sorry. I hope you're not in the movie on your phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Compare the NAO and 50:50 low on the euro and GEFS. Euro never pushes the NAO ridge far west, which allows this storm to come farther north. Given the seasonal trend, I think that's more likely than seeing some suppressed storm that snows on Atlanta. Unless the wave speeds way up, a west track is still totally fine for us as long as we get hp over the top. That has been pretty consistent regardless of timing so far. the qpf max is narrow pretty much on all guidance. That's probably the biggest worry. Not getting any precip vs getting all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Compare the NAO and 50:50 low on the euro and GEFS. Euro never pushes the NAO ridge far west, which allows this storm to come farther north. Given the seasonal trend, I think that's more likely than seeing some suppressed storm that snows on Atlanta. Seems we lost the thumbnail ridge poking West as DT spoke about last night, on his site's update. It was on the Euro run yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I hope you're not in the movie on your phone. Unforgivable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I hope you're not in the movie on your phone. Hasn't started yet. I just didn't want to miss anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Looking at h5 and comparing today's 12z run to the 0z on the euro, much more of a SE ridge on 12z run. Explains the more NW track, and supports the range of solutions still on the table this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Unforgivable Probably one of about 3 things that could drag me into actual fight at my age. I think some of our people need to listen to the voices of experience here. This is way, way too far out to even think about what an op shows. The takeaway is that the pattern looks decent and all of the models are seeing a storm. That all are seeing it is a big deal. With the recent trends, I'd say suppression can be taken off the immediate worry list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looking at h5 and comparing today's 12z run to the 0z on the euro, much more of a SE ridge on 12z run. Explains the more NW track, and supports the range of solutions still on the table this far out. It's the depth of the trough in the west that's causing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It's the depth of the trough in the west that's causing it. There are some small differences in the AK ridge, the western trough, and the ridging near GL(not as far west) that seem to contribute to it. These are the kinds of variations that we are going to see with the op runs that will drive certain people crazy for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: There are some small differences in the AK ridge, the western trough, and the ridging near GL(not as far west) that seem to contribute to it. These are the kinds of variations that we are going to see with the op runs that will drive certain people crazy for a few days. I agree and I suppose one could argue that the stronger ridge in the se is causing the deeper trough in the west. Given the past 6 weeks, I'd lean toward the stronger ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I agree and I suppose one could argue that the stronger ridge in the se is causing the deeper trough in the west. Given the past 6 weeks, I'd lean toward the stronger ridge. I would also lean towards the NA ridge/50-50 low not being as strong or in the best location. Interested to see the EPS and then the 0z op run tonight. Both the 12z and 0z op runs yesterday had an almost ideal h5 look for our area given the overall pattern. 12z today shifted things just a bit, which is fine as long as it doesn't continue to trend in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Was the CMC like the worst case scenario. It looked like rain to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 CMC was a foot of snow, but close to the rain snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: Was the CMC like the worst case scenario. It looked like rain to me. Rain for Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Rain for Pa. Thanks that is what it looked like to me to. Seemed like you guys faired better on the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 To my untrained eye the EURO and the CMC seem to have the exact same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 To my untrained eye the EURO and the CMC seem to have the exact same track.Try your trained one then. J/k. Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Still a lot of spread but the euro ens "generally" support a more northern hit like the op. The control run is a destruction. It's a 2 wave deal with the first hitting central/southern VA and then us. Scanning through member output leaves little confidence in any one outcome and the shift overall wasn't very significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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