Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: So with that ridging, the storm should ride farther north? See my other post, the SE Ridge being a player and putting both our respective subforums in the game has been my thoughts so far with this one. La Nina, weakening or not, isn't going to let that SE Ridge flatten so easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, debeaches said: Careful what you root for. Not rooting lol, just trying to learn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 CMC has a more northern system. Shows another way we can score in the advertised pattern. Most of the area sees 10-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I am not rooting for any north trend until game time when it shows 50 miles SE of me and then does a shift. If it starts shifting north now I get worried already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The major difference is the position and strength of the HP. There is no way to know what that is going to be from this range. A strong pressing HP you get suppression. Weaker and further north you get this run. Weaker still or non existent you get a cutter. And I am still liking the 500 pattern in the medium range. The GFS is trying to keep the atmosphere buckled for quite a while. NAO looks to go negative and stay there through mid month. Although it is a bit east based of perfect. The ridge position on the west coast isnt perfect. But the medium range pattern as advertised on this run is good for a shot or two of frozen stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 Rooting doesn't change anything. The seasonal trend is less of a cold push, higher heights in the se. My guess is that if you are looking at a 10 day storm and you're on the southern edge of good snow, you're already in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, clskinsfan said: The major difference is the position and strength of the HP. There is no way to know what that is going to be from this range. A strong pressing HP you get suppression. Weaker and further north you get this run. Weaker still or non existent you get a cutter. And I am still liking the 500 pattern in the medium range. The GFS is trying to keep the atmosphere buckled for quite a while. NAO looks to go negative and stay there through mid month. Although it is a bit east based of perfect. The ridge position on the west coast isnt perfect. But the medium range pattern as advertised on this run is good for a shot or two of frozen stuff. The low heights in NE and Quebec was the difference in those two runs, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Rooting doesn't change anything. The seasonal trend is less of a cold push, higher heights in the se. My guess is that if you are looking at a 10 day storm and you're on the southern edge of good snow, you're already in trouble. Good call- this thing is headed well north. Wish I was in interior Pa- near Carbondale for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, debeaches said: Good call- this thing is headed well north. Wish I was in interior Pa- near Carbondale for this one Carbondale will be annihilated. Be funny as hell if the are fringed on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 What is going on with the models in 30h? Both the Euro and the GFS keep spitting snow in my area (Gaithersburg) even though the temps don't support it. I've seen it in a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, supernovasky said: What is going on with the models in 30h? Both the Euro and the GFS keep spitting snow in my area (Gaithersburg) even though the temps don't support it. I've seen it in a few runs now. Looks like morning snow showers to me. If it comes early, some may see a quick coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Looks like morning snow showers to me. If it comes early, some may see a quick coating. I noticed it at 52h yesterday on the Euro and GFS too. I would not mind, at all, even a few tiny flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 And I know its already been touched on. But the NAO looks to start relaxing around the 13th or so on this run. That storm is currently modeled as a cutter. But it is something to watch IMO. Canadian is a jumper at 12Z. I hate seeing that for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 GEFS and EPS still split equal with south vs good tracks. That's the trend to watch. Ops have limited use for at least 3 more days. Hopefully the 12z EPS shows a little more clarity but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 CMC baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: And I know its already been touched on. But the NAO looks to start relaxing around the 13th or so on this run. That storm is currently modeled as a cutter. But it is something to watch IMO. Canadian is a jumper at 12Z. I hate seeing that for sure. I think it's a good sign when you pair that with a suppressed gfs and a less suppressed euro. Besides, the CMC depiction would be a great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 lol- euro should up the ante around here. only 8 days to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: lol- euro should up the ante around here. only 8 days to go! Matt just texted said it was "wet"(not rain wet, just qpf wet) maybe mixy...but sounds good this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Matt just texted said it was "wet"(not rain wet, just qpf wet) maybe mixy...but sounds good this far out Walking the line. Primary drives into N WV so mid levels suffer. But not after a decent 6-10" shellacking. It's a pretty classic thump before flip with that track. Good HP sprawled north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Walking the line. Primary drives into N WV so mid levels suffer. But not after a decent 6-10" shellacking. It's a pretty classic thump before flip with that track. Good HP sprawled north of us. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Lots of solutions on the table today, but I like that they all can lead to snow for us. Tests the benefit of having a favorable pattern. More margin a good event. Again, let's keep the ensemble means looking good for now. GEFS mean looks good but individual members still have a lot of spread it looks like for any storm. I like where we stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Not a good spot to be 8 days out...with a 1050 HP to the north...really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 yeah the high is in a perfect position on the euro and that track would bring plenty of moisture - we may lose the mid layers but surface should stay plenty cold - would be a great way to get on the boardSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Walking the line. Primary drives into N WV so mid levels suffer. But not after a decent 6-10" shellacking. It's a pretty classic thump before flip with that track. Good HP sprawled north of us. ah, ok...eh, I'd take it and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 Perfection. Only 8 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, stormtracker said: ah, ok...eh, I'd take it and run with it. It's a good run. The track is good for a front end dump. Nice 1030hp over the top. Mid levels wouldn't go down without a fight. It's a pretty typical way for us to get a storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm still looking for that 1050 high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The euro really doesn't add anything to the discussion. It's just a possible outcome at long leads. The entire pattern/premise remains intact so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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