WinterWxLuvr Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 The 0z runs take us to January. Good luck all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 BTW, can a mod please pin this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Not saying it aint never gonna snow. I think we are headed for a January 20 to February 15 type winter. 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Why is the mjo getting so much headline talk when it's a non factor? I don't get it. It's spinning around the circle of nothingness with no amplitude in any phase. It's a non driver right now imo. Bob, you make a good point as noted below: Quote Dynamical model forecasts of MJO activity suggest the possible emergence of a signal in the MJO band over the West Pacific late in Week-1 or during Week-2; however, the phase speed of this signature appears at the very fast end of the MJO spectrum and appears tied to the aforementioned Kelvin wave. Filtered CFS guidance suggests an absence of a robust MJO signature during the forecast period, and as such MJO-related impacts are not anticipated throughout the tropics and subtropics. Instead Kelvin wave activity, the low frequency state, and potential tropical cyclones are more likely to shape the present outlook. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php I find the MJO to be a challenging subject to fully understand. Still, in previous winters I've noticed that when the MJO lines up in phases 7 and 8 we seem to get into a good pattern and it seems that the MJO requires about 40 to 47 days to makes meaningful shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Seems like the bulk of that snowfall from the EPS comes between D10-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 I concur with Bob. My quick look at all the 12z guidance left me feeling pretty good. Last night was a good run and today wasn't a step back. We look to have a legit window in early January. Could we nitpick a thing or two sure but we have snowed in much worse so I'll take my chances. We just need to wait to see how the specifics shake out. We're a ways away for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 And the para has a nice look. A block that would make some tear up with joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: And the para has a nice look. A block that would make some tear up with joy. Things have been crappy so far, which is typical actually, but there isn't much reason to be down on January at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Things have been crappy so far, which is typical actually, but there isn't much reason to be down on January at this point. Nope. I like our chances if we keep expectations in check. Last year proved all it takes is one great set up and boom. Some might be praising the SER before long as we wait for a west trend or decent over running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 Why looking at ops beyond just a few days is sketchy. First image is the 198 hour gfs surface from 2 3/4 days ago. Second is today's 18z run. Check out the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 33 minutes ago, BristowWx said: And the para has a nice look. A block that would make some tear up with joy. If you're talking about January 7-8, I find it odd with the high in Canada retreating to the NW, why the LP doesn't just ride up the coast. Seems counterintuitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Why looking at ops beyond just a few days is sketchy. First image is the 198 hour gfs surface from 2 3/4 days ago. Second is today's 18z run. Check out the west coast. What a difference a day (or two) makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 18z gfs/gefs continue the upbeat look from the 5th onward. Gefs is a mix of west track mixes and all snow waves under us but clarity is still a ways off. Things look a good bit better this time compared to leading into mid Dec. We couldn't shake the WAR. Colder and more promising look with less chance at a dumb lakes low doing its dirty work or hp sliding due east off the coast. I wish we could fast forward to the coming weekend. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gfs/gefs continue the upbeat look from the 5th onward. Gefs is a mix of west track mixes and all snow waves under us but clarity is still a ways off. Things look a good bit better this time compared to leading into mid Dec. We couldn't shake the WAR. Colder and more promising look with less chance at a dumb lakes low doing its dirty work or hp sliding due east off the coast. I wish we could fast forward to the coming weekend. Lol Go ahead and wish my vacation time away for your silly hobby.....Selfish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 How can this be taken seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gfs/gefs continue the upbeat look from the 5th onward. Gefs is a mix of west track mixes and all snow waves under us but clarity is still a ways off. Things look a good bit better this time compared to leading into mid Dec. We couldn't shake the WAR. Colder and more promising look with less chance at a dumb lakes low doing its dirty work or hp sliding due east off the coast. I wish we could fast forward to the coming weekend. Lol The 18gfs op is showing a cutter system on the 11th of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 How can this be taken seriously?I swear every day people talk about how bad that thing is lol. Why don't people just disregard it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, leo1000 said: The 18gfs op is showing a cutter system on the 11th of January. It could be showing an HECS and neither would be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I swear every day people talk about how bad that thing is lol. Why don't people just disregard it? The farmers almanac can give forecasts months in advance for a lot less money. Maybe someone can explain how I would benefit from a forecast one month in advance even if it was certain to be 100% correct. How exactly do I benefit from knowing my temp for January will average +2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The farmers almanac can give forecasts months in advance for a lot less money. Maybe someone can explain how I would benefit from a forecast one month in advance even if it was certain to be 100% correct. How exactly do I benefit from knowing my temp for January will average +2? Only if you were a natural gas futures trader. Then you would like to know. Otherwise not helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 24 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Only if you were a natural gas futures trader. Then you would like to know. Otherwise not helpful Then let them spend their money and develop their own model. No way public money should be spent on that. Spend it on improving the ability to forecast 0-5 days. That is the beneficial time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Weeklies look pretty good @ h5. Decent look next week continues for most of week 3. +pna and nao blocking week 4. Ridge west/trough east week 5-6. Overall the best run since early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies look pretty good @ h5. Decent look next week continues for most of week 3. +pna and nao blocking week 4. Ridge west/trough east week 5-6. Overall the best run since early Dec. Didn't someone say last week they were the worst they'd ever seen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies look pretty good @ h5. Decent look next week continues for most of week 3. +pna and nao blocking week 4. Ridge west/trough east week 5-6. Overall the best run since early Dec. And more importantly how do they look for Jan 17? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Didn't someone say last week they were the worst they'd ever seen? I like the weeklies for rolling forward whatever pattern d15 is showing on the 0z eps. Beyond that is nothing more than a recap of what they show with zero confidence. Never a bad thing when they look good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Didn't someone say last week they were the worst they'd ever seen? I believe psu noted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I like the weeklies for rolling forward whatever pattern d15 is showing on the 0z eps. Beyond that is nothing more than a recap of what they show with zero confidence. Never a bad thing when they look good though. It gives us a general idea about the look of the pattern beyond day 15. In this case, I like the general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I like the weeklies for rolling forward whatever pattern d15 is showing on the 0z eps. Beyond that is nothing more than a recap of what they show with zero confidence. Never a bad thing when they look good though. 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It gives us a general idea about the look of the pattern beyond day 15. In this case, I like the general idea. Logical. Good stuff guys. Do they generally follow the pattern laid out by the ensembles or are there times when are in stark contrast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies look pretty good @ h5. Decent look next week continues for most of week 3. +pna and nao blocking week 4. Ridge west/trough east week 5-6. Overall the best run since early Dec. They do look fairly good. Like the fact it is not showing south east ridging like the last couple of runs. I do question the temp anomalies though. The look IMO suggests seasonal to slightly below temps not the above normal temps it shows in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 Not long range, but, again, flakes increasingly possible Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not long range, but, again, flakes increasingly possible Thursday. Post it in the December thread, you heathen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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