michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 29 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Weak Nina winters tend to be more problematic toward the Ohio Valley (have seen that play out so far) but there's no guarantee of them being great farther north. Clunkers can happen in any ENSO regime. Agree with Bo's post above...too early for the post mortem and if you're around the Lakes, all it will take is one good stretch between now and the end to make this a pretty average winter, at least on paper. Very good point as well. Clunkers can happen in any ENSO state, as can good winters. Sometimes the end result on paper looks better than the winter seemed, but then again if you don't care about snowcover I don't know why that would matter. It's not supposed to snow constantly. What happens in the downtime (cold dry and white or mild wet and bare) is what sort of leaves the lasting impression in the mind, particularly in those years when it looks good on paper. We have had completely bare ground since Jan 11th and now only some old dirty piles in parking lots remain (no residential shovel piles left outside a rogue one). Yet DTW will not fall below normal season to date til Jan 26, the day that snow re-enters the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Futility watch time for Chicago... Least Snowiest January's: 1. 0.2" - 1928 2. 0.3" - 1934 2. 0.3" - 19004. 0.4" - 2017 4. 0.4" - 1989 6. 0.5" - 1949 7. 0.8" - 1973 8. 0.9" - 1933 9. 1.2" - 1956 10. 1.5" - 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Futility watch time for Chicago... Least Snowiest January's: 1. 0.2" - 1928 2. 0.3" - 1934 2. 0.3" - 19004. 0.4" - 2017 4. 0.4" - 1989 6. 0.5" - 1949 7. 0.8" - 1973 8. 0.9" - 1933 9. 1.2" - 1956 10. 1.5" - 2001 They will blow past that before the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 10 hours ago, Jackstraw said: Stick a fork in it, we're done. February is the new March. Torch again before Valentines Day. I'm guessing this is a joke, February has been one of our best winter months over the last decades or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 15 hours ago, Stebo said: Yep let's get ready for that cold and dry train. That translates to winter fun in the great lakes region. Today's pattern sucks for those of us that actually utilize our entire state in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 hours ago, buckeye said: Last night we were driving back to Columbus from Cleveland. Intermittent heavy down pours and cloud to cloud lightning....and in the 50's close to midnight. The suckage of this winter outside some places in the sub that scored in December, was severely underestimated. I remember all the excited posts back in late summer early fall about the coming nina winter. To be fair, you are in a really, really, really bad spot for winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 42 minutes ago, Stebo said: They will blow past that before the end of the month. I wouldn't count on it. Top 10 is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 CLE hit 63 on Saturday and today it hit 64. Both days had lots of sunshine and light winds. This was probably the "nicest" January weekend in over a century. January has already had 4 60+ days and 9 50+ days. With the deficits we've racked up it's going to take quite the pattern the second half of winter to even come close to normal fo snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 hours ago, weatherbo said: we're at the mid point. a little early for a winter 16-17 post mortem. Winter for me, as in snow season, is December thru Feb. After March 1st the snow has to be much more significant to be appreciated....otherwise I default to chasing early spring warmth vs. snow. When we are facing FEB 1st with snowfall in the single digits and a pattern flip in the next week that looks dry and cold before possible going back to warmth, I don't think it's too crazy to start playing with at least the rough draft of a miserable winter obit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I wouldn't count on it. Top 10 is a lock. Barring something popping up unexpectedly, that system on the 30th-31st could be a last minute spoiler if it comes far enough south... have to watch how that plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I'm salivating at the clipper/NW flow setup. Big time LES coming... Probably revert our mess of a winter back into prime time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Futility watch time for Chicago... Least Snowiest January's: 1. 0.2" - 1928 2. 0.3" - 1934 2. 0.3" - 19004. 0.4" - 2017 4. 0.4" - 1989 6. 0.5" - 1949 7. 0.8" - 1973 8. 0.9" - 1933 9. 1.2" - 1956 10. 1.5" - 2001 The only thing worse than being in the position of breaking a futility record... ...falling short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: I wouldn't count on it. Top 10 is a lock. An 1.2" in 8 days? I could see ORD get that and if it doesn't oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 While soft in qualitative snow all in all this region is on par wrt log book events.... The clipper C-1 forecast is just fine with me. Nickle and dimes in the bank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 hours ago, buckeye said: Winter for me, as in snow season, is December thru Feb. After March 1st the snow has to be much more significant to be appreciated....otherwise I default to chasing early spring warmth vs. snow. When we are facing FEB 1st with snowfall in the single digits and a pattern flip in the next week that looks dry and cold before possible going back to warmth, I don't think it's too crazy to start playing with at least the rough draft of a miserable winter obit. Well put. With nothing of interest south of I 80 in the foreseeable future, and add the fact that we've received 5.26" of liquid with only 0.7" of that being snow in the past 33 days, it's easy to get discouraged about the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Very good point as well. Clunkers can happen in any ENSO state, as can good winters. Sometimes the end result on paper looks better than the winter seemed, but then again if you don't care about snowcover I don't know why that would matter. It's not supposed to snow constantly. What happens in the downtime (cold dry and white or mild wet and bare) is what sort of leaves the lasting impression in the mind, particularly in those years when it looks good on paper. We have had completely bare ground since Jan 11th and now only some old dirty piles in parking lots remain (no residential shovel piles left outside a rogue one). Yet DTW will not fall below normal season to date til Jan 26, the day that snow re-enters the forecast. Despite having snow on the ground for a few weeks this winter, most of those weeks were spent watching the snow melt and compact down to ugly snowcover. This has felt like an eternal March/April pattern. This past week was constant fog, drizzle, showers, and tenps stuck in the mid-upper 30s. Even winter-haters around here are boggled about this mild winter. Yesterday was the first time we have seen sun in weeks...and the temp soared to 60 degrees. Absurd. It was nice to see sunshine though. 8 hours ago, Trent said: CLE hit 63 on Saturday and today it hit 64. Both days had lots of sunshine and light winds. This was probably the "nicest" January weekend in over a century. January has already had 4 60+ days and 9 50+ days. With the deficits we've racked up it's going to take quite the pattern the second half of winter to even come close to normal fo snowfall. Wow! Talk about a warm January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 945 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT FORT WAYNE... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 63 DEGREES WAS SET AT FORT WAYNE TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 62 SET IN 1933 AND 1906 FOR THE DATE JANUARY 22ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The weather has been stuck on repeat for the last week. Every day it's cloudy, damp, and mid 30s to low 40s. Without any wind it has felt decent. It has just been pretty zzzz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 low of 33. 31 degrees above the average. just incredible. Day 5 of fog, drizzle. I think I'm depressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Don't think I've seen the sun in about a week now. Getting a bit depressing no doubt. Nice to save a bit on the heating bill but it's getting dreary. Fog or drizzle almost every day makes it hard to enjoy the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Pretty rough 10 day period with cutters, warm temps, and snow melt. Probably not unexpected given how up and down the pattern has been so far this winter. Later in the week and into next week looking much better for colder air and snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, josh_4184 said: Pretty rough 10 day period with cutters, warm temps, and snow melt. Probably not unexpected given how up and down the pattern has been so far this winter. Later in the week and into next week looking much better for colder air and snow chances. Looks like some cold air returns Friday, with the GFS advertising a big arctic front coming through around D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, harrisale said: Don't think I've seen the sun in about a week now. Getting a bit depressing no doubt. Nice to save a bit on the heating bill but it's getting dreary. Fog or drizzle almost every day makes it hard to enjoy the warmth. I mean it's cloudy all the time when it's snowy too, but the fact that it's snowing makes it less depressing somehow. Idk why people say Vancouver is the best winter place in Canada, low single digits, damp, and cloudy is pretty ****ty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, ConfusedKitten said: I mean it's cloudy all the time when it's snowy too, but the fact that it's snowing makes it less depressing somehow. Idk why people say Vancouver is the best winter place in Canada, it sounds miserable as hell to me. True, just seems like in a NW flow cold regime, we end up with a lot of sunny yet chilly days where some high pressure sets in. Haven't seen much of that this winter! We did actually have some pretty interesting weather on Friday night, there was a dense fog but the temperature must have been just below zero such that the fog was actually depositing a layer of ice crystals onto the ground. You could also feel the ice crystals in the air on your skin. Can't recall seeing that before but everything else has been zzzzzz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, harrisale said: True, just seems like in a NW flow cold regime, we end up with a lot of sunny yet chilly days where some high pressure sets in. Haven't seen much of that this winter! We did actually have some pretty interesting weather on Friday night, there was a dense fog but the temperature must have been just below zero such that the fog was actually depositing a layer of ice crystals onto the ground. You could also feel the ice crystals in the air on your skin. Can't recall seeing that before but everything else has been zzzzzz. We had freezing fog in London one night, but it wasn't dense enough to do anything cool like that :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 hours ago, harrisale said: True, just seems like in a NW flow cold regime, we end up with a lot of sunny yet chilly days where some high pressure sets in. Haven't seen much of that this winter! We did actually have some pretty interesting weather on Friday night, there was a dense fog but the temperature must have been just below zero such that the fog was actually depositing a layer of ice crystals onto the ground. You could also feel the ice crystals in the air on your skin. Can't recall seeing that before but everything else has been zzzzzz. I agree, its been a while since we've seen the Sun come out. On the bright side, despite the warmth, we haven't hit 10C (50F) since late November at YYZ, lol. Could see some LES in the area later this week, and then our best chance over the next 6-10 days look to be clippers. However, its possible they either weaken by the time they reach the area, or they end up tracking to far north given the strong polar jet. 3 possibilities exist at this point so I wouldn't hold my breath with clippers as they've been pretty nonexistent in the last few Winters. Beyond that, as the pattern reshuffles and the +PNA weakens, the SE ridge may make an appearance again (strength is questionable atm), and it could offer our best chances at seeing a storm between Feb 3rd and 12th. Doesn't look like we'll be getting any helping from the NAO/AO thru mid February so any cold that we do see up until then will be transient. If nothing occurs in that time-frame, I'd lose all the hope I have for the remainder of Winter, lol. January has been active storm wise, but what a hideous month with virtually no snow besides that WAA frontal snow we saw before it changed over to rain. As of Jan 31, normal snowfall at YYZ will be 26.7" or (68cm) and as of today YYZ stands at 19.6" (50cm), lol. Being held together by December. What a ridiculous month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Looks like lake effect and lake enhanced snow possible Thursday through Sunday. Hoping for the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 244 AM EST WED JAN 25 2017 ...RECORD NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE JANUARY DAYS ABOVE FREEZING... TUESDAY JANUARY 24TH WAS THE 8TH STRAIGHT DAY OF TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT FORT WAYNE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS STREAK BEGAN ON JANUARY 17TH. THIS BREAKS A RECORD FOR THE LONGEST CONSECUTIVE NUMBER OF DAYS IN JANUARY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS SET IN 1998 FROM JANUARY 2ND THROUGH THE 8TH. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WE COULD ADD ONE MORE DAY TO THIS RECORD IF TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING STAY ABOVE 32F THROUGH MIDNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 As of this morning the snow for for this season here in west Michigan 45.6" at Grand Rapids and 41.7" in Muskegon. Also of note. As of this morning Grand Rapids and Muskegon are running as the warmest January’s in history. With 7 more day to go Grand Rapids mean in now at 34.6° the record for any January at Grand Rapids is 34.2° in 1932 and in second place is a 34.0° in 1933. In Muskegon the mean as of today is 35.5° and over there the current record is 34.8° also in 1932 with 34.2° in 2006 in second place. And the warmth is widespread as up in the Sault the mean so far this month is 30.0° that is +9.5° and the current record warmest January there is 27.0° set in 1932. At this time there don’t look to be enough cold coming to drop this January from being one of the warmest on record here in many areas of Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 The January record in GR is probably going to fail. The last week should erase a good chunk of the positive departures. A top 10 is probably a lock, but top 5 is unlikely. Right now at +4.6F -- I'm surprised that's close to a record considering last year December was over +10F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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