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January 2017 General Discussion


SchaumburgStormer

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2 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

1/4" of light rain overnight.  Temp has hovered between 33/34 for about 15 hours, and I've lost a 1/2" in snow depth the past 24 hours. The fog is as about as thick as it gets.  Nice to see snow chances back in the forecast.

What are you thinking your depth bottoms out at?

Yes it is SO nice to see chances of snow back in the forecast.

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1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

What are you thinking your depth bottoms out at?

Yes it is SO nice to see chances of snow back in the forecast.

With the current forecast, I'd be surprised if it goes below 14".  Both snow sticks reading 17" with a water content around 4".  Pretty squishy right now, but when it freezes up, it's going to be the glacier left in Spring.  My peak depth this Winter has been 30". 

Looks like lots of snow chances before your trip to the area.

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5 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

With the current forecast, I'd be surprised if it goes below 14".  Both snow sticks reading 17" with a water content around 4".  Pretty squishy right now, but when it freezes up, it's going to be the glacier left in Spring.  My peak depth this Winter has been 30". 

Looks like lots of snow chances before your trip to the area.

would love to get stuck in a lake effect storm.

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I know we've been torching somewhat here of late but I've been watching the temp anomaly's over the last couple of months and am absolutely amazed how far a departure from normal north central Canada has been this winter.  Even though it's still "cold", they have to be setting some kind of records up there warmer than normal.

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63 for a high at FWA, missing the record by 3 (66 in 1906).

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
927 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED AT FORT WAYNE...

A RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 45 DEGREES WAS SET AT FORT
WAYNE TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 45 SET IN 1921.

TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 45 DEGREES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
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Last night we were driving back to Columbus from Cleveland.   Intermittent heavy down pours and cloud to cloud lightning....and in the 50's close to midnight.    The suckage of this winter outside some places in the sub that scored in December, was severely underestimated.    

I remember all the excited posts back in late summer early fall about the coming nina winter.   

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22 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Last night we were driving back to Columbus from Cleveland.   Intermittent heavy down pours and cloud to cloud lightning....and in the 50's close to midnight.    The suckage of this winter outside some places in the sub that scored in December, was severely underestimated.    

I remember all the excited posts back in late summer early fall about the coming nina winter.   

This has been more like a 90s / early 2000s Nina winter than the late 2000s / early 2010s Nina winters we've become accustomed to.

My hope is that the sub-par Winter leads to a nice positive feedback loop as we enter Spring / Summer.

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14 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yep let's get ready for that cold and dry train.

I will take my chances. I have already had a big snowstorm this year and I have had MORE than enough mild and rain days. 90% of the time when I hear people say "cold and dry" I know I will at least have some white with lake effect and clippers.

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54 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

we're at the mid point.  a little early for a winter 16-17 post mortem.

It's very early however it is par for the course on weather boards. The climatological "dead of winter" is the last 10 days of Jan into the first week of Feb. Detroits midway mark of the snow season is January 25th. The astronomical midpoint of winter is Feb 2nd. 

 

And yet.

 

We hear winter postmortems. The south of i80 guys have more gripes thus far, but I will laugh my ass off if come April it is an above normal snow season for many. Michigan has the best shot but it can happen in Ohio or Indiana too.

 

In the la Nina winter of 2007-08, I saw a whopping 78" of snow, but 51" of that came in Feb and Mar. While that's extreme, it does appear Jan is the stinker month in la Ninas more often than not.

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Weak Nina winters tend to be more problematic toward the Ohio Valley (have seen that play out so far) but there's no guarantee of them being great farther north. Clunkers can happen in any ENSO regime. Agree with Bo's post above...too early for the post mortem and if you're around the Lakes, all it will take is one good stretch between now and the end to make this a pretty average winter, at least on paper.

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