Jackstraw Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Looks like the potential for a band of a few inches of snow for southern parts of the region. Would be their biggest snow so far this season. Wish mother nature would fire a fast ball down the middle. Us folks in central Indiana are whiffing on these hanging curve balls and sliders at the knees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 hours ago, Baum said: I'll take the blame for this weather. Got a snowblower for Christmas. My apologies. Way to go!! I've actually been blaming my dad. His old snowblower crapped the bed during the Dec 4th event. He went out and bought a big, fancy new one with all the bells and whistles. Been collecting dust since lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 hours ago, Jackstraw said: Wish mother nature would fire a fast ball down the middle. Us folks in central Indiana are whiffing on these hanging curve balls and sliders at the knees. Ma' nature's been throwing lots of spitballs lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Ma' nature's been throwing lots of spitballs lately. Was hoping for a nudge north this evening from this system but that's starting to look like it's not going to happen. Radar trends are sinking to the south and returning to their mostly MO solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 20 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: Was hoping for a nudge north this evening from this system but that's starting to look like it's not going to happen. Radar trends are sinking to the south and returning to their mostly MO solution. Yeah it's a pretty lame event. Top-down saturation will take awhile in this dry air mass, and with precip so light on the north side models may have been overdoing it a bit on the northward extent. At least it keeps the snowless streak going. At 18 days now. May as well see how long we can make it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 This cold for the next few days with only a dusting of snow on the ground should freeze up the ground really well. The big cold in December came with deep snowpack so I'm not sure how well the ground froze up with all the snow on the ground. When that snow melted, I saw a few patches of greenish grass so I'm guessing the ground wasn't too frozen. That will change now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Ma' nature's been throwing lots of spitballs lately. Niekro needs to be pulled off the mound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Niekro needs to be pulled off the mound. You might see an inch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 24 minutes ago, IWXwx said: You might see an inch at least. A shameful pun, such a shameful pun lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Flakes flying all day, few heavier squalls left a light dusting. Drove through one on the way home. Hoping a 94 band gets going tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah it's a pretty lame event. Top-down saturation will take awhile in this dry air mass, and with precip so light on the north side models may have been overdoing it a bit on the northward extent. At least it keeps the snowless streak going. At 18 days now. May as well see how long we can make it lol. Strange to observe... Radar up to this point started off somewhat promising (as in hope for a dusting to an inch) but then has of late died off, current echos moved south. But now new 01z HRRR and RAP have done a 180 and jacked up totals in the southern half of the state again... as if to suggest something may redevelop. 00z NAM holds on to it's 18z ideas mostly for this area, which are somewhat lighter than RAP and HRRR's 01z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Lightest dusting of all time here this morning. Looks like it frosted. About 0.001" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Well, I got an inch of snow here just to whiten things up a bit. Tops of grass still showing in spots. I'll take whatever crumbs I can get this season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Squally morning in the Detroit area. Most places seemed to get a dusting to half inch. I was told we had a whiteout in wyandotte which measured 1.7". When driving home it was literally a mile from my house where it went from heavy dusting to blanket of white, though in true LES fashion the fluff already settled quite a bit. Lake effect always interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 13 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Lightest dusting of all time here this morning. Looks like it frosted. About 0.001" lol. Pretty much the same result here. Just enough to cover everything until the wind blew it into patches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Say goodbye to the infamous DGEX. Going bye-bye Feb 1st. Also the NAM will be upgraded. Here's a statement from NOAA on some other interesting changes starting Feb 1st. I highlighted a few of the more notable changes, including a reduction in warm-season surface temp bias... Effective on or about February 1, 2017, beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is proposing to implement Version 4 of North American Mesoscale (NAM) and discontinue the Downscaled GFS by NAM Extension (DGEX) Forecast System. Changed include the following: - Discontinue all DGEX model output - Remove legacy NAM products on NOAAPORT and NCEP/NWS servers - Make resolution changes for NAM nests - Make major changes to the NAM Data Assimilation System (NDAS) - Make model changes to convection, microphysics, land-surface upgrades; frequency of physics calls increased FORECAST MODEL CHANGES 1) Resolution changes to the CONUS (from 4 km to 3 km), Alaska (from 6 km to 3 km), and CONUS fire weather (from 1.333 km to 1.5 km) nests 2) More frequent calls of physics (now every 2nd time step for all domains); change frequency of radiation updates for the NAM 12 km parent domain from hourly to every 20 minutes 3) Advect specific humidity every dynamics time step 4) Changes to Betts-Miller-Janjic convective scheme to improve 12 km parent QPF bias, especially during the cool season 5) Update Ferrier-Aligo microphysics to improve stratiform precipitation, better anvil reflectivity, reduce areas of light/noisy reflectivity over oceans 6) Improve effect of frozen soil on transpiration and soil evaporation, leading to reduced cold/moist bias during cool season 7) Radiation/microphysics changes to reduce incoming surface shortwave radiation; reduced warm-season 2-m temperature bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Down to -1. First subzero temp of 2017. Was nice to see some mood flakes flying around today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Say goodbye to the infamous DGEX. Going bye-bye Feb 1st. Also the NAM will be upgraded. Here's a statement from NOAA on some other interesting changes starting Feb 1st. I highlighted a few of the more notable changes, including a reduction in warm-season surface temp bias... Effective on or about February 1, 2017, beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is proposing to implement Version 4 of North American Mesoscale (NAM) and discontinue the Downscaled GFS by NAM Extension (DGEX) Forecast System. Changed include the following: - Discontinue all DGEX model output - Remove legacy NAM products on NOAAPORT and NCEP/NWS servers - Make resolution changes for NAM nests - Make major changes to the NAM Data Assimilation System (NDAS) - Make model changes to convection, microphysics, land-surface upgrades; frequency of physics calls increased FORECAST MODEL CHANGES 1) Resolution changes to the CONUS (from 4 km to 3 km), Alaska (from 6 km to 3 km), and CONUS fire weather (from 1.333 km to 1.5 km) nests 2) More frequent calls of physics (now every 2nd time step for all domains); change frequency of radiation updates for the NAM 12 km parent domain from hourly to every 20 minutes 3) Advect specific humidity every dynamics time step 4) Changes to Betts-Miller-Janjic convective scheme to improve 12 km parent QPF bias, especially during the cool season 5) Update Ferrier-Aligo microphysics to improve stratiform precipitation, better anvil reflectivity, reduce areas of light/noisy reflectivity over oceans 6) Improve effect of frozen soil on transpiration and soil evaporation, leading to reduced cold/moist bias during cool season 7) Radiation/microphysics changes to reduce incoming surface shortwave radiation; reduced warm-season 2-m temperature bias Fascinating. Could you, if you'd like of course, explain perhaps some reasons for these changes, or how they might change forecasting accuracy, and why the DGEX was infamous, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 It’s now up to +9° here at my house after I bottomed out at +1° for the coldest so far this winter. I now have 2.5” of snow on the ground here at my house (last report at the airport was 1”) The low looks to be +2° at the airport of note it has not been below zero officially in GR since February 28th 2015 the last time it reached zero was on March 5th 2015 and the last time it was double digits below zero was February 27th 2015 when it was -11° While last winter and so far this winter it has not be below zero in the winter of 2014/15 it got as cold as -13° twice and Grand Rapids went below zero 10 times that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 15 hours ago, ConvectiveIA said: Fascinating. Could you, if you'd like of course, explain perhaps some reasons for these changes, or how they might change forecasting accuracy, and why the DGEX was infamous, etc? The DGEX was just a longer version of the NAM. Basically it was on crack and not worth looking at. The increase in resolution from 4km to 3km will be nice. They also did some upgrades to the way the model is computed, so it hopefully will be more accurate across the board. The NAM had a tendency to be too warm in the summer months, and they did things to reduce the bias regarding 2-meter temps. Will be interesting to see if it is in fact more accurate later this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Pretty impressive cold today considering zero snow cover. Only made it to 6 above with full sun. -2 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Kind of resembles the forecast snowfall map from a week or so ago lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 18 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Say goodbye to the infamous DGEX. Going bye-bye Feb 1st. Also the NAM will be upgraded. Here's a statement from NOAA on some other interesting changes starting Feb 1st. I highlighted a few of the more notable changes, including a reduction in warm-season surface temp bias... Effective on or about February 1, 2017, beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is proposing to implement Version 4 of North American Mesoscale (NAM) and discontinue the Downscaled GFS by NAM Extension (DGEX) Forecast System. Changed include the following: - Discontinue all DGEX model output - Remove legacy NAM products on NOAAPORT and NCEP/NWS servers - Make resolution changes for NAM nests - Make major changes to the NAM Data Assimilation System (NDAS) - Make model changes to convection, microphysics, land-surface upgrades; frequency of physics calls increased FORECAST MODEL CHANGES 1) Resolution changes to the CONUS (from 4 km to 3 km), Alaska (from 6 km to 3 km), and CONUS fire weather (from 1.333 km to 1.5 km) nests 2) More frequent calls of physics (now every 2nd time step for all domains); change frequency of radiation updates for the NAM 12 km parent domain from hourly to every 20 minutes 3) Advect specific humidity every dynamics time step 4) Changes to Betts-Miller-Janjic convective scheme to improve 12 km parent QPF bias, especially during the cool season 5) Update Ferrier-Aligo microphysics to improve stratiform precipitation, better anvil reflectivity, reduce areas of light/noisy reflectivity over oceans 6) Improve effect of frozen soil on transpiration and soil evaporation, leading to reduced cold/moist bias during cool season 7) Radiation/microphysics changes to reduce incoming surface shortwave radiation; reduced warm-season 2-m temperature bias Models are already amazing now days, this is a cherry on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 the light snow glistened this morning in the bitter cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 With the wind dying down yesterday, lake effect snows have set up shop closer to the lakeshore. 6 inches of fresh new snow since yesterday, and still coming down. With it being cold, driving has been nasty with snow packed on to roads and the powder blowing all over the place..causing very low visibility The NAM looks like it is trying to hold the cold air in longer for Tuesday's system, with several inches possible. Hope it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Two years ago tonight was some of the most brutal wind chills I have ever experienced. Remember very vividly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 44 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Two years ago tonight was some of the most brutal wind chills I have ever experienced. Remember very vividly. Sweet pic. That was in '14 wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 A lovely 2 degrees currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Recorded my first sub zero temperature of 2017, dropped to as low as -4, have since stalled back at -2. Looks like a fairly warm week on tap next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Here IMBY I received 1.5” of new snow overnight. And now have 4.5” on the ground. With the snow on the ground and on the trees and a temperature of 11° and light snow falling it looks very much like winter at this time Here are some snow totals from western North Carolina from last night Totals by county Buncombe: 4 to 7" Burke: 6 to 9" Cherokee (N.C.): 2 to 4"(Valleys), 3 to 6" (Mts.) Clay: 3 to 5" Graham: 3 to 6" Haywood: 4 to 6" Henderson: 6 to 9" Jackson: 4 to 6" Macon: 3 to 6" Madison: 3 to 6" McDowell: 6 to 9" Mitchell: 3 to 6" Polk: 6 to 10" Rutherford: 6 to 9" Swain: 3 to 6" Transylvania: 5 to 8" Yancey: 3 to 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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