michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 If January ended today it would only be 12th warmest for detroit. Decent chance we won't even make top 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 snowing again after a historical 11 day mid-winter snow drought. depth a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Here is the of list of the top ten warmest Januarys in Grand Rapids. The current mean is 34.6° 1. 1. 34.2° in 1932 2 34.0° in 1933 3. 33.2 in 2006 4. 32.4 in 1894 5. 32.0° in 1990 6. 31.6° in 1906 7. 31.0° in 1934 8. 30.4° in 1989 9. 30.2° in 2002 1 0 30.0° in 1919 And in 11th place is 29.7° in 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 17 minutes ago, slimjim101 said: Here is the of list of the top ten warmest Januarys in Grand Rapids. The current mean is 34.6° 1. 1. 34.2° in 1932 2 34.0° in 1933 3. 33.2 in 2006 4. 32.4 in 1894 5. 32.0° in 1990 6. 31.6° in 1906 7. 31.0° in 1934 8. 30.4° in 1989 9. 30.2° in 2002 1 0 30.0° in 1919 And in 11th place is 29.7° in 2012 So much for AGW arguments - 6 of those go way back before anyone even thought it up. Just sayin.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 hours ago, slimjim101 said: Here is the of list of the top ten warmest Januarys in Grand Rapids. The current mean is 34.6° 1. 1. 34.2° in 1932 2 34.0° in 1933 3. 33.2 in 2006 4. 32.4 in 1894 5. 32.0° in 1990 6. 31.6° in 1906 7. 31.0° in 1934 8. 30.4° in 1989 9. 30.2° in 2002 1 0 30.0° in 1919 And in 11th place is 29.7° in 2012 It's probably possible to figure it out now based on forecasts, but I'd say somewhere near 31F is likely. Top 10, but zero chance of 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 On 1/23/2017 at 10:44 AM, weatherbo said: low of 33. 31 degrees above the average. just incredible. Day 5 of fog, drizzle. I think I'm depressed. The worst part is that this hit during the usual peak of winter. I consider Jan 15th through the 25th to be the coldest 10 day period of the winter and it very likely will be the warmest 10 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jonger said: The worst part is that this hit during the usual peak of winter. I consider Jan 15th through the 25th to be the coldest 10 day period of the winter and it very likely will be the warmest 10 day period. And an astonishing 11 days with no snow here, which might not seem like a big deal to most, but it snows here daily most of the Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 35 minutes ago, weatherbo said: 11 days with no snow here Here in Iowa we call that an active pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Here in Iowa we call that an active pattern haha I know... I must sound like a spoiled brat but this has been a pretty rare event the past 11 days or so for the Upper Peninsula. I bet there was a record broken somewhere up here for the longest stretch of being 33 and foggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 It has been cloudy and wet/damp with a temp in the 30s (briefly 40s) for 9 or 10 straight days now I think. The mild weather has been easy on my garden after the early January bare-ground cold, but my sun-loving plants overwintering in the window could certainly use a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 4 hours ago, RogueWaves said: So much for AGW arguments - 6 of those go way back before anyone even thought it up. Just sayin.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Temp down to 30 with visibility steadily lowering with snow. Forecast is for 3-6" tonight/Thur morning. Hopefully we can make up some ground over the next few weeks. MQT is 3 feet below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 6 hours ago, RogueWaves said: So much for AGW arguments - 6 of those go way back before anyone even thought it up. Just sayin.. We've had the hottest year on record for 3 straight years. But sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 6 hours ago, RogueWaves said: So much for AGW arguments - 6 of those go way back before anyone even thought it up. Just sayin.. 5 have occurred in the last 27 years... records go back to at least to 1894 for Grand Rapids. What you are "sayin" is a bunch of nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 22 minutes ago, Chargers09 said: We've had the hottest year on record for 3 straight years. But sure. The earth did. MI had a very cold year in 2014. Detroit, UHI and all, had their 20th coldest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Just now, michsnowfreak said: The earth did. MI had a very cold year in 2014. Detroit, UHI and all, had their 20th coldest year on record. AGW is earth-centric. Not Grand Rapids centric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, Stebo said: 5 have occurred in the last 27 years... records go back to at least to 1894 for Grand Rapids. What you are "sayin" is a bunch of nonsense. Rogue shouldnt have brought up agw, as this is not the forum for it, but he certainly has a point regarding warm Jan's. Some of our most impressive Jan warm spells did come long ago. Detroits records go to 1874, and 14 of the top 20 warmest Jan's are 1953 and earlier. 01.) 36.7F - 1880 01.) 36.7F - 1932 03.) 35.3F - 2006 04.) 34.7F - 1933 05.) 33.6F - 1906 06.) 33.5F - 1890 06.) 33.5F - 1990 08.) 32.8F - 1989 08.) 32.8F - 1998 10.) 32.7F - 2002 11.) 32.5F - 1950 12.) 32.1F - 1876 13.) 31.6F - 1949 14.) 31.0F - 1882 15.) 31.0F - 1919 16.) 30.8F - 1944 17.) 30.7F - 2012 18.) 30.5F - 1921 18.) 30.5F - 1953 20.) 30.4F - 1964 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, Chargers09 said: AGW is earth-centric. Not Grand Rapids centric. This subforum is about the Lakes, it is not about climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Just now, michsnowfreak said: This subforum is about the Lakes, it is not about climate change. Then he shouldn't have made a dumb comment, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Just now, michsnowfreak said: Rogue shouldnt have brought up agw, as this is not the forum for it, but he certainly has a point regarding warm Jan's. Some of our most impressive Jan warm spells did come long ago. Detroits records go to 1874, and 14 of the top 20 warmest Jan's are 1953 and earlier. 01.) 36.7F - 1880 01.) 36.7F - 1932 03.) 35.3F - 2006 04.) 34.7F - 1933 05.) 33.6F - 1906 06.) 33.5F - 1890 06.) 33.5F - 1990 08.) 32.8F - 1989 08.) 32.8F - 1998 10.) 32.7F - 2002 11.) 32.5F - 1950 12.) 32.1F - 1876 13.) 31.6F - 1949 14.) 31.0F - 1882 15.) 31.0F - 1919 16.) 30.8F - 1944 17.) 30.7F - 2012 18.) 30.5F - 1921 18.) 30.5F - 1953 20.) 30.4F - 1964 6 in 27 years vs 14 in 115, there is certainly a trend going in the direction of warmth. Especially with 5 in the top 10 in the last 27 years. It doesn't matter how you slice it there is a trend that is obvious, especially when you look at things in a yearly capacity vs picking just a singular month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 imo, there hasn't been enough focus on global climate trends not necessarily being reflected uniformly in every place on the planet. Partly comes down to a failure to communicate. It becomes easier to discredit everything when you can point to your country/state/city/backyard as not following along with trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: imo, there hasn't been enough focus on global climate trends not necessarily being reflected uniformly in every place on the planet. Partly comes down to a failure to communicate. It becomes easier to discredit everything when you can point to your country/state/city/backyard as not following along with trends. Yeah, globally the numbers have been off the charts year after year now for several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, Stebo said: 6 in 27 years vs 14 in 115, there is certainly a trend going in the direction of warmth. Especially with 5 in the top 10 in the last 27 years. It doesn't matter how you slice it there is a trend that is obvious, especially when you look at things in a yearly capacity vs picking just a singular month. I was talking about warm Jan's, did not care to get into an agw discussion. Januarys in the 21st century have been a full degree colder than Januarys from 1930-1959 in Detroit. But yet the most impressive Jan warm spells happened as freak occurances in the 1880s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Back to January discussion...chances of snow near daily for the foreseeable future. What a breath of fresh air, pun intended! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Just now, michsnowfreak said: I was talking about warm Jan's, did not care to get into an agw discussion. Januarys in the 21st century have been colder than Januarys from 1930-1959 in Detroit. But yet the most impressive Jan warm spells happened as freak occurances in the 1880s. Why pick only the 21st century, climate itself is a 30 year average. If you pick and choose periods like that, you can find numbers to agree with anything. That is why we have standards like the 30 year average. If you expand out to 30 years this is the warmest 30 year pattern on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 15 minutes ago, Stebo said: Why pick only the 21st century, climate itself is a 30 year average. If you pick and choose periods like that, you can find numbers to agree with anything. That is why we have standards like the 30 year average. If you expand out to 30 years this is the warmest 30 year pattern on record. I was just replying to your comment. Here are the below Jan averages, as you see they vary, and I could not care less about the overall temp fluctuations as the most obvious trend here is increasing winter snowfall, which is the most important weather facet for me. Januarys in the 2010s, the first 7 years that is, are colder than Januarys of the 1890s, 1900s, 1910s, 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, 1990s, 2000s. Im well aware about 30-yr averages, and also they do not do them til the start of a new decade. The 1981-2010 (27.7F) winter average temp was colder than the 1931-1960 (28.0F) avg. It is even more extreme when looking at January 1931-1960 (26.8F) vs 1981-2010 (25.3F). JANUARY Temp Precip Snow 1870s 23.9 2.22” N/A 1880s 24.5 1.92” 12.4” 1890s 24.9 1.84” 9.3” 1900s 25.4 2.13” 11.3” 1910s 24.7 2.71” 12.2” 1920s 24.1 1.89” 12.3” 1930s 28.1 2.42” 8.0” 1940s 25.0 1.67” 6.5” 1950s 26.8 2.15” 10.3” 1960s 24.2 2.05” 6.7” 1970s 21.5 1.88” 12.2” 1980s 23.4 1.52” 10.8” 1990s 26.5 2.43” 13.6” 2000s 25.9 2.01” 13.3” 2010s 24.6 2.06” 15.4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Now that the cooler weather and snow has returned to the UP, here's a few more stats from the warm spell that nearly sent me over the edge. - 11 consecutive days without snow, a record for winter (Dec-Feb). - 4 consecutive days with a minimum temperature of >30F, tying the record for winter. - 9 consecutive days above freezing, a record for January. Winter 2013-2014 had just 4 days above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Just looking at the radar for Chicago, I think that top 10 futility record might be in trouble, like I suspected it would be. Decent back of snow back near the QC to Madison rotating southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 30 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Now that the cooler weather and snow has returned to the UP, here's a few more stats from the warm spell that nearly sent me over the edge. - 11 consecutive days without snow, a record for winter (Dec-Feb). - 4 consecutive days with a minimum temperature of >30F, tying the record for winter. - 9 consecutive days above freezing, a record for January. Winter 2013-2014 had just 4 days above freezing We went 9 consecutive days above freezing (lowest temp 33). It will take a bit of digging to see if that's a record because xmacis doesn't let you isolate months for stretches like this. No individual daily record high or record high mins were set however. Outside of one day it really wasn't an impressive torch max temp wise, it was more like murky late march hell. So happy it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 With all this talk of warmth, on this day in 1950, Detroit saw its warmest January day on record, with a high of 67F and a low of 55F. The 3pm temp was 67F with a dewpoint of 57F! It hit 72F in Ann Arbor. https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDET/1950/1/25/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Detroit&req_state=MI&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=48242&reqdb.magic=4&reqdb.wmo=99999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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