SchaumburgStormer Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Looks like winter makes its return. Long range seems to show a pattern change back towards cold. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Saw some folks pointing out the possibility of the " famed triple phaser." Always, the sign were in a poor winter pattern for snow and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 December is my favorite time of year, but January is my favorite month...all about winter. With a great start to the 2016-17 season, the current rotten thaw/hiatus notwithstanding, January-February can make this into a fantastic winter. Only in the unlikely event we go all 2005-06 would Decembers cold and snow blitz seem like a cruel joke haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 It will probably be snow time later in the month but right now my Indpls forecast has showers and t storms possible for Monday afternoon and eve Jan. 2 before turning colder for the rest of the week. Long range GFS looks interesting for the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Happy New Year!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 First. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 December is my favorite time of year, but January is my favorite month...all about winter. With a great start to the 2016-17 season, the current rotten thaw/hiatus notwithstanding, January-February can make this into a fantastic winter. Only in the unlikely event we go all 2005-06 would Decembers cold and snow blitz seem like a cruel joke haha.See I've always been about June. Great outdoors month as it's usually not too hot and humid yet, while having some very good severe prospects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Happy New Years everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 40 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Zzzzz Yep. Been over 2 weeks since the last measurable snow here (1.5" Dec 17). How long will the snowless streak last? Looking pretty bleak for at least the next 8-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yep. Been over 2 weeks since the last measurable snow here (1.5" Dec 17). How long will the snowless streak last? Looking pretty bleak for at least the next 8-10 days. Happens every January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Winners and losers so far Decent start near/north of I-80, but certainly in the midst of a downtime. Hopefully this map gets more green/blue in January, especially farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Nothing to interesting on the horizon. Pretty crummy winter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XfireLOW Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 I know this is outside of the area of interest for most on this sub forum, but when I look at the current models and then see this graphic from the grand forks nws there seems to be a huge disconnect. Does this forecast have any chance of verifying? Looking at the models, the largest qpf for the area is about 0.5". It's going to take 20 to 1 ratios to get close to 12". Most mid winter snowfall is dry here, but its usually small grains of snow nowhere near 20 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Winners and losers so far Decent start near/north of I-80, but certainly in the midst of a downtime. Hopefully this map gets more green/blue in January, especially farther south. This map shows very well how the relentless 30 to 40 mph winds we seem to be getting with every cold front this year has blown the Lake Michigan snows over my head and dropped them in the Grand Rapids area. Ready for the wind to die down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 hours ago, XfireLOW said: I know this is outside of the area of interest for most on this sub forum, but when I look at the current models and then see this graphic from the grand forks nws there seems to be a huge disconnect. Does this forecast have any chance of verifying? Looking at the models, the largest qpf for the area is about 0.5". It's going to take 20 to 1 ratios to get close to 12". Most mid winter snowfall is dry here, but its usually small grains of snow nowhere near 20 to 1. Interesting forecast for you. Looking at some forecast soundings, the DGZ doesn't look particularly too impressive during the two main waves. Generally around 75-150mb at best. You may have periods of rather meager flake size between the more enhanced bands. The difference in model QPF is kind of surprising being so close to the event. Euro drops <0.5" over a wide area, while some of the higher res models go crazy and drop widespread 0.7-0.9" amounts. LSRs are always tricky to forecast, but I'd probably go with a conservative 15:1 for most of northern MN due to lack of DGZ depth. Cold temps through the column, and lack of wind should help though, so it'll be interesting to see how it turns out. I'd probably go with around 10" for your area. Euro is probably a bit too stingy with precip, and even with a conservative 15:1 LSR that would still yield you 7" between the two main waves. If the 4km/3km NAMs aren't overdone you could easily achieve 12"+. By the way, be careful looking at the DGZ depth analysis on the Pivotalweather forecast soundings. They incorrectly put the base of the DGZ depth below the inversion layer, which can sometimes falsely add over 100mb of depth to the DGZ zone lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XfireLOW Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Thanks Cyclone77, most of that analysis is lost on me. But, its nice to know that graphic has some validity. It seems like the NWS have gotten super conservative (over estimating) with snowstorms the last few years and I was wondering if that was the case in this instance. This upcoming system hopefully is similar to Presidents Day 2013 here. I got nearly a foot of snow when the model qpf was only showing 0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Aahhhh.....the sound of thunder on a warm summer night. Wait, it's January 2nd. WTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Picked up 0.02" of rain last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 30 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Picked up 0.02" of rain last night. I got 0.09". More than you! Hmm, doesn't seem as fun to brag when it's not snow...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I got a respectable 0.25" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/1/2017 at 9:34 PM, XfireLOW said: Thanks Cyclone77, most of that analysis is lost on me. But, its nice to know that graphic has some validity. It seems like the NWS have gotten super conservative (over estimating) with snowstorms the last few years and I was wondering if that was the case in this instance. This upcoming system hopefully is similar to Presidents Day 2013 here. I got nearly a foot of snow when the model qpf was only showing 0.25". How much snow did you end up getting total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 My dad in Toledo said there was thunder last night. It's fairly rare to have lightning in January in the north. Toledo had temps in the 30's at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XfireLOW Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: How much snow did you end up getting total? I think I got the bulls eye with this storm. The NWS report says 13". Which I would say is pretty accurate. Schools are closed and work started late. I had about 4" by yesterday 5pm and added at least 8" overnight. I happened to wake up about 1am and it was snowing so hard that it looked almost like daylight with the city lights reflecting off the falling snow. All the snow is the consistency of champagne powder which the wind is now doing its thing and blowing it all over. It's still snowing a little bit, I think. Its hard to tell with the blowing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Beautiful rainbow at 4:15 p.m. today with departing heavy rain this January 3. Good omen for lots of meteorological events to come in 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 hour ago, XfireLOW said: I think I got the bulls eye with this storm. The NWS report says 13". Which I would say is pretty accurate. Schools are closed and work started late. I had about 4" by yesterday 5pm and added at least 8" overnight. I happened to wake up about 1am and it was snowing so hard that it looked almost like daylight with the city lights reflecting off the falling snow. All the snow is the consistency of champagne powder which the wind is now doing its thing and blowing it all over. It's still snowing a little bit, I think. Its hard to tell with the blowing snow. Nice. Temp dropped a good 10 degrees here over the past 3hrs. Was hoping to see a few wind-blown flurries as the CAA really took hold, but even that is too much to ask apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 18z and 00z models have trended toward the prospect of a flurries to a quick inch or so in my neck of the woods tomorrow night. Yay small-scale surprise features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks like the potential for a band of a few inches of snow for southern parts of the region. Would be their biggest snow so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I'll take the blame for this weather. Got a snowblower for Christmas. My apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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