Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Nope. 

Oh boy, I like new sleds, What did you get?

[jbenedet]

43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS 24-hour snow map.

Definitely getting much closer.  Gets 6" into parts of the southern Greens and up near Jay Peak, and then Dendrite and NE with a crush job in Sunday Rivah and Sugarloaf.

Heh. That's pretty damn laughable that this would have 0-1" in all of SE NH, up into Maine, including Portalnd and all the way up to Augusta. The purple and blue shading should encompass all of these areas given the 18z GFS track and evolution.

[mreaves]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Oh boy, I like new sleds, What did you get?

Well, new to me. 2007 Arctic Cat Jag 1100 non-turbo. Real clean, 2100 miles. Only driven by a little old lady back and forth to church on Sundays.  Bombed around a bit on it and decided to take the plunge. 

[dryslot]

One would think there would be some dynamic cooling going on with that track on the GFS and the explosive nature of the low

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Heh. That's pretty damn laughable that this would have 0-1" in all of SE NH, up into Maine, including Portalnd and all the way up to Augusta. The purple and blue shading should encompass all of these areas given the 18z GFS track and evolution.

Yeah and those are the "weenie" snow maps, lol...often known to be way too generous.

[dryslot]

Just now, mreaves said:

Well, new to me. 2007 Arctic Cat Jag 1100 non-turbo. Real clean, 2100 miles. Only driven by a little old lady back and forth to church on Sundays.  Bombed around a bit on it and decided to take the plunge. 

Nice, Just over break in............. Ride it like you stole it

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

One would think there would be some dynamic cooling going on with that track on the GFS and the explosive nature of the low

Yeah but you can see why the GFS looks like it does.

It has the 32F isotherm way up there...and -1C at 925mb (3,000ft?) all the way up to MWN on this panel.

For that heavy of precipitation its really warm in the boundary layer.  PWM is in the upper 30s at this time.  I doubt that's right...its overnight too so you get a little diurnal help as well.  My guess is the 32F isotherm would be more like where the 35F isotherm is.

No cold snow...that's a blue bomb.

[mreaves]

Just now, dryslot said:

Nice, Just over break in............. Ride it like you stole it

I'm pretty set on sticking with the 4 strokes and would have loved a Ski-Doo. I just couldn't find one within my budget. Those things hold their value pretty well.  This one came in under budget so I'm pretty happy with that. I pick it up Friday so hopefully there is a little bit of snow so I can take it out. 

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

One would think there would be some dynamic cooling going on with that track on the GFS and the explosive nature of the low

Agreed. Everyone in that northwest quadrant would see a thump per the 18z GFS track/intensity. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Agreed. Everyone in that northwest quadrant would see a thump per the 18z GFS track/intensity. 

The other model guidance was similar to that GFS track and was spitting out double digits for snow totals, Its thermal profile is a little skewed it seems

[mahk_webstah]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It basically is a technical term for a conveyor belt of warmer and more moist air. When you see this thumb of warmer and more moist air thrown NW into colder air, things can happen. 

If you want to stop for a beer on your way up let me know and we can see if any others wanna join and weenie out a bit.   

Starting to think my number for a win is 8, with double figures a real possibility.  And Center Harbor should do even better than me or Brian.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Agreed. Everyone in that northwest quadrant would see a thump per the 18z GFS track/intensity. 

Yeah it seems to take the model a little while to flush out the boundary layer warmth up to around 3,000-4,000ft.

Here's 925mb temps and already a half inch of QPF has fallen in SNH...  it then dynamically cools it to -1C at 925mb for the next panel in a lot of spots.  That's when it should be ripping but its still lagging and wrong in the boundary layer.

[dryslot]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah it seems to take the model a little while to flush out the boundary layer warmth up to around 3,000-4,000ft.

Here's 925mb temps and already a half inch of QPF has fallen in SNH...  it then dynamically cools it to -1C at 925mb for the next panel in a lot of spots.  That's when it should be ripping but its still lagging and wrong in the boundary layer.

GFS has been slow to the party on this one but i believe it will continue to correct, Pretty solid model guidance on this one with the other modeling, But the Euro certainly has ed the way on this one.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GFS has been slow to the party on this one but i believe it will continue to correct, Pretty solid model guidance on this one with the other modeling, But the Euro certainly has ed the way on this one.

Yeah if this happens in any way, the Euro nailed it like 5 days out.  Even if I don't get 12" of snow like it says, it was still the correct model here in the mid-range.

[dryslot]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah if this happens in any way, the Euro nailed it like 5 days out.  Even if I don't get 12" of snow like it says, it was still the correct model here in the mid-range.

It was out there on its own a few days back, Once it latched on, It has been pretty damn consistent with its run to run continuity

[jbenedet]

 

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it seems to take the model a little while to flush out the boundary layer warmth up to around 3,000-4,000ft.

Here's 925mb temps and already a half inch of QPF has fallen in SNH...  it then dynamically cools it to -1C at 925mb for the next panel in a lot of spots.  That's when it should be ripping but its still lagging and wrong in the boundary layer.

Agreed. Also there's quite a bit of snowcover throughout Maine and NH. I know snowcover tends to be overstated in importance, but in situations like this where surface WAA is not occurring, it can definitely act to cool the BL faster than expected.

http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow_depth_im

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

If you want to stop for a beer on your way up let me know and we can see if any others wanna join and weenie out a bit.   

Starting to think my number for a win is 8, with double figures a real possibility.  And Center Harbor should do even better than me or Brian.

Thanks man. Just a quick trip up and back as I have plans in the city Friday night. Will try to tie one on soon!

[Damage In Tolland]

They correct 3 things on the GFS and 2 others become worse. I still remember it had surface temps into the mid- upper 40's on that snow event 2 Saturdays ago while other models had it still snowing 

so with this.. you get some rip and reader on air or an inexperienced met and they call for mostly rain .. without looking at anything else. It's unfortunate 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

yea, gfs temp profiles need work. nice hit up north. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Any major caution flags? At least for the interior?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Any major caution flags? At least for the interior?

Just don't look at GFS. That's unsportsmanlike 20 yds

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Any major caution flags? At least for the interior?

Caution flags would be explosive development takes a little too long. But if it happens quick ala Euro...then bombs away over the interior and prob even for a time pretty close to BOS. 

[512high]

53 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Well, new to me. 2007 Arctic Cat Jag 1100 non-turbo. Real clean, 2100 miles. Only driven by a little old lady back and forth to church on Sundays.  Bombed around a bit on it and decided to take the plunge. 

congrats lots of fun

[mahk_webstah]

Checked in with WPC suite.  They are going with a model blend with above average confidence:

FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS AS THE FLAT/ZONAL JET ENERGY ENTERS THE WEST COAST AND EVOLVES INTO A MEDIUM WAVELENGTH TROF THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURS MORNING. VERY FINE SCALE DETAILS REMAIN SLIGHTLY OUT OF ALIGNMENT WITH RESPECT TO SOME DETAILS (SOME IMPORTANT) SUCH AS THE ECMWF/CMC BEING A BIT SLOWER DEEPER/SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM SITS IN THE MIDDLE CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECENS MEAN AND 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z UKMET ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER. THIS IS A TYPICAL ARRANGEMENT AT DAY 3 TO HAVE A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN BLENDING ALL THE SOLUTIONS WITH POSITION/ORIENTATION TOWARD THE MEANS BY DAY 3. AS SUCH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS SUPPORTED AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. PLEASE REFER TO QPFPFD FOR PRECIPITATION MODEL PREFERENCES AND DETAILS. 19Z UPDATE: THE 12Z UKMET BACKED UP WITH A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION MAINLY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT SUPPORTS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT; AS SUCH THE LOW IS TUCKED A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT BETTER AND HAS SHIFTED TOWARD BETTER PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT CONTINUES TO BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERALL THESE DIFFERENCES REMAIN FAIRLY SMALL ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

And from the QPF discussion, also a model blend:

BY THE END OF DAY 3 THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF RAPIDLY DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW AND KEEPS IT CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...RESULTING IN HEAVY QPF WRAPPING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE 12Z GFS IS FLATTER AND FASTEST WHILE THE 12Z NAM SITS IN BETWEEN. GIVEN THE SPREAD...WPC QPF NUDGED CONTINUITY TOWARD A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM.

Interesting to see how this might evolve after the 18Z and 0Z runs

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just don't look at GFS. That's unsportsmanlike 20 yds

My guess is the GFS keeps cozying up to the Euro...like a boss

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Checked in with WPC suite.  They are going with a model blend with above average confidence:

FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS AS THE FLAT/ZONAL JET ENERGY ENTERS THE WEST COAST AND EVOLVES INTO A MEDIUM WAVELENGTH TROF THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURS MORNING. VERY FINE SCALE DETAILS REMAIN SLIGHTLY OUT OF ALIGNMENT WITH RESPECT TO SOME DETAILS (SOME IMPORTANT) SUCH AS THE ECMWF/CMC BEING A BIT SLOWER DEEPER/SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM SITS IN THE MIDDLE CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECENS MEAN AND 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z UKMET ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER. THIS IS A TYPICAL ARRANGEMENT AT DAY 3 TO HAVE A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN BLENDING ALL THE SOLUTIONS WITH POSITION/ORIENTATION TOWARD THE MEANS BY DAY 3. AS SUCH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS SUPPORTED AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. PLEASE REFER TO QPFPFD FOR PRECIPITATION MODEL PREFERENCES AND DETAILS. 19Z UPDATE: THE 12Z UKMET BACKED UP WITH A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION MAINLY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT SUPPORTS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT; AS SUCH THE LOW IS TUCKED A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT BETTER AND HAS SHIFTED TOWARD BETTER PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT CONTINUES TO BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERALL THESE DIFFERENCES REMAIN FAIRLY SMALL ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

And from the QPF discussion, also a model blend:

BY THE END OF DAY 3 THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF RAPIDLY DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW AND KEEPS IT CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...RESULTING IN HEAVY QPF WRAPPING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE 12Z GFS IS FLATTER AND FASTEST WHILE THE 12Z NAM SITS IN BETWEEN. GIVEN THE SPREAD...WPC QPF NUDGED CONTINUITY TOWARD A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM.

Interesting to see how this might evolve after the 18Z and 0Z runs

Go read Kocin in the the heavy snow discussion over there for day 3

[HIPPYVALLEY]

A Euro solution would get me well ahead of last years season total before NYE. 

[moneypitmike]

The BOX HWO seems to describe the situation pretty well:

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY BRING
HEAVY SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF WORCESTER. HEAVY WET SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS TOWARD THE
END OF THE STORM MAY RESULT IN SOME TREE DAMAGE AND SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES. ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...SOUTH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS AND ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I495 CORRIDOR IN
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN BUT MAY
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW WITH A SHARP DROP OF TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING DURING THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS AND A POSSIBLE NEED WIND ADVISORIES LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah...i'm glad they mentioned the wind.

if that Euro solution works out just that much better we have a pretty classic pressure couplet and iss. b wind pulse look to that.  pressure falls rapidly, but you don't really know what that means until the low moves away and the restoring comes in like a p-wave off a bomb woosh

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah...i'm glad they mentioned the wind.

if that Euro solution works out just that much better we have a pretty classic pressure couplet and iss. b wind pulse look to that.  pressure falls rapidly, but you don't really know what that means until the low moves away and the restoring comes in like a p-wave off a bomb woosh

Prob a flash freeze too on the euro for coastal plain...you get heavy rain in the BOS metro region flashing over to 32-33F parachutes and then 1/4 mile powder at 27 to end it.  That is if the solution of that type of intensification actually pans out.