SR Airglow Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: Nice to see an NCEP model going big...even if it's the LR NAM. Wonder if the GFS goes big on this run. Looked a bit better than the 12z but still nothing like Euro/NAM. Sunday River jackpot verbatim, of course I'm in Lake Placid this week so they're going to get rocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: TBH that NAM map is kind of how you'd think things evolve in the progressive pattern with positive tilt. . That may end up closer to reality than Euro Yeah I could see that, probably a even more NE than that. These re-developers always seem to tick north and east as time goes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Didn't you say just yesterday that posting snow maps 4-days out was just adding confusion? We are now under 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: Nice to see an NCEP model going big...even if it's the LR NAM. Wonder if the GFS goes big on this run. Oh it did.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Yeah but I think this trough goes negative, no? Yeah that trough definitely goes negative...its just a matter of how far north and east it gets before it does. EURO you can see is clearly a nice negative tilt wrapped up system which is why it really bombs the interior early. That 500mb chart is what you look for when thinking negative tilt, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, SR Airglow said: Looked a bit better than the 12z but still nothing like Euro/NAM. Sunday River jackpot verbatim, of course I'm in Lake Placid this week so they're going to get rocked Yup...babysteps with the GFS. Up to warning criteria back here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: We are now under 3 days You do know that days are 24 hours long right? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Oh it did.....lol Nice crushjob for you Mainers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: You do know that days are 24 hours long right? Well the sfc trough is entering WNE by about 72hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just now, dendrite said: Well the sfc trough is entering WNE by about 72hr. Under 3 days though? Just joking with him...he didn't like the snowmaps yesterday so they added confusion. Now that its better, its all good. You know the game. Just ribbing him. Nice to see you posting though... that means something is happening, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Nice crushjob for you Mainers. GFS still not quite there yet here, We have some wiggle room which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You do know that days are 24 hours long right? lol. This comes in Thurs morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: This comes in Thurs morning I'm just joking with you man...i love the back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I could see that, probably a even more NE than that. These re-developers always seem to tick north and east as time goes by. Someone yesterday mentioned that this looks similar but further north than the boxing day to them. What I remember about boxing day was that initially it looked quite good for us up here but then each run Showing the redevelopment of the capture further and further south west so I don't think they are always trend Northeast with timeSomeone yesterday mentioned that this looks similar but further north than the boxing day to them. What I remember about boxing day was that initially it looked quite good for us up here but then each run showed the redevelopment and the capture further and further south west so I don't think they are always trend Northeast with time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 18z GFS 24-hour snow map. Definitely getting much closer. Gets 6" into parts of the southern Greens and up near Jay Peak, and then Dendrite and NE with a crush job in Sunday Rivah and Sugarloaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Under 3 days though? Just joking with him...he didn't like the snowmaps yesterday so they added confusion. Now that its better, its all good. You know the game. Just ribbing him. Nice to see you posting though... that means something is happening, haha. Heh...I check in quite a bit, but I've been kinda too busy to follow the models other than quick glances. So I haven't had much to add outside of obs. I'm officially sucked into this threat now. All I needed to see was Scott describing the euro slamming a TROWAL into the Whites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Someone yesterday mentioned that this looks similar but further north than the boxing day to them. What I remember about boxing day was that initially it looked quite good for us up here but then each run Showing the redevelopment of the capture further and further south west so I don't think they are always trend Northeast with time Oh they definitely don't always trend northeast with time... but I think most on here would agree that without blocking in place and over the past couple years, its much easier for these to end up further northeast than it is for them to end up northwest being of the Miller B variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Oh they definitely don't always trend northeast with time... but I think most on here would agree that without blocking in place and over the past couple years, its much easier for these to end up further northeast than it is for them to end up northwest being of the Miller B variety. Is there any in situ or temporary blocking related to the big storm moving fro Ontario into Quebec? If there is a capture then it slows everything down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just now, dendrite said: Heh...I check in quite a bit, but I've been kinda too busy to follow the models other than quick glances. So I haven't had much to add outside of obs. I'm officially sucked into this threat now. All I needed to see was Scott describing the euro slamming a TROWAL into the Whites. This one has congrats dendrite written all over it. Just far enough in every direction to be solidly cold enough but well within the wheelhouse of the best lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Heh...I check in quite a bit, but I've been kinda too busy to follow the models other than quick glances. So I haven't had much to add outside of obs. I'm officially sucked into this threat now. All I needed to see was Scott describing the euro slamming a TROWAL into the Whites. What does the trowal slamming actually mean? For our weather I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: What does the trowal slamming actually mean? For our weather I mean Heaven. It means heaven. Heavy returns moving from east to west against the white enhancing the snow. Heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: Heaven. It means heaven. Heavy returns moving from east to west against the white enhancing the snow. Heaven. Ahhhh I have a 3000' peak just to my west by about 5 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: What does the trowal slamming actually mean? For our weather I mean A reverse upslope...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Wow just saw euro. ORH obliterator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wow just saw euro. ORH obliterator. Don't bother with GFS trash . It's Ukie/ GGEM/ Euro/ ENS/ GGEM/JMA/ NAM in same general camp vs GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 14 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Ahhhh I have a 3000' peak just to my west by about 5 miles It basically is a technical term for a conveyor belt of warmer and more moist air. When you see this thumb of warmer and more moist air thrown NW into colder air, things can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 8 hours ago, dryslot said: 0z Euro, 987mb over the elbow, 06z GFS 981mb over bay of fundy I've been out all day but that's basically my dream track. I guarantee it won't happen that way because I made a purchase today that will most likely put the kibosh on meaningful snow for me for the remainder of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 6 minutes ago, mreaves said: I've been out all day but that's basically my dream track. I guarantee it won't happen that way because I made a purchase today that will most likely put the kibosh on meaningful snow for me for the remainder of the season! please don't say plow! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 4 minutes ago, 512high said: please don't say plow! lol Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 just an obscene amount of frontogenic look when you have a 120 kts 500 mb jet core riding about 1 deg of lat/lon E of Logan on a straight S to N, ...negative tilt trajectory? Christ the NAM has that fist too. If that Euro pans out someone gets a couple three loud CC/CG booms... Right around hour 84 from 12z this morning. I could almost see uniform low visibility explosive rad filling in, with IP mixed. I've seen that happen before where UVM would be insane in a band, maybe even gravity wave split up, but over top the critical thickness intervals as the 850 mb flow inflects and starts riding perpendicular to q-vector forcing. May as well be like half way up inside a cumulonimbus cloud there. i bet that satellite fans like its summer. ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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