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Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM might keep ORH all snow. Or at least only briefly mix. 

 

43 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Better here too. Think it keeps MHT-ASH pretty close to all snow. Probably only a brief mix

 

27 minutes ago, 512high said:

Scott , hate to bug you, Nashua...safe to say 6-10" now?

 

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I hope I'm not wrong, but it looks that way.

The RGEM may even keep me all snow.  Right on the line.  Will be fascinating to see how this evolves.

Told my buddy in Manchester that I'm think we see 6-8".  But that I also had a feeling this storm might have a surprise or two in store for us.

The snow is going to be heavy and wet and falling at a potentially ridiculous clip.  What are we thinking for winds as the storm wraps up and passes by?  Gusts to 40 mph? 50 mph?  With the heavy nature of the snow, thinking a power outage or two could be possible up here.

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

I think ASH to ORH belt is probably all systems go at this point...I can't rule out a little taint maybe for a time, but I think it's going to be mostly snow in that corridor.

Yeah I agree. Not that they're gospel but gave the NAM soundings a quick look and I'm liking what I see. I don't think we'll have an issue overcoming an iffy BL for the majority of this. 

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WthrJunkyME

WthrJunkyME

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

what's the consenus up here? Still looking at some rain? Hard to keep up with the subtle changes in development, models, temps, etc.

wunderground has updated their forecast just now from 1-3" and rain tonight to no rain and 1" of snow.  Yes, one inch.  Color me skeptical. ...

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ma blizzard

ma blizzard

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

 

 

 

The RGEM may even keep me all snow.  Right on the line.  Will be fascinating to see how this evolves.

Told my buddy in Manchester that I'm think we see 6-8".  But that I also had a feeling this storm might have a surprise or two in store for us.

The snow is going to be heavy and wet and falling at a potentially ridiculous clip.  What are we thinking for winds as the storm wraps up and passes by?  Gusts to 40 mph? 50 mph?  With the heavy nature of the snow, thinking a power outage or two could be possible up here.

I'm a little concerned about losing power imby .. I'm just east of ORH and the rain / snow line looks to straddle the area for several hours. If it can remain predominantly snow, 6" of 8:1 paste will def do damage. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

I'm a little concerned about losing power imby .. I'm just east of ORH and the rain / snow line looks to straddle the area for several hours. If it can remain predominantly snow, 6" of 8:1 paste will def do damage. 

This could be one of those storms where I'm saying 30-31F and heavy snow on winter hill and you are like 32-33F and complete paste. I wouldn't be surprised if there were power outages.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Where to drive... Where to drive...

Interior S NH could get hammered. The 101 corridor. I prefer that than ORH county right now. Don't feel like driving into Maine.

Manchester is kind of an ugly town, unfortunately.

Concord has a nice main street with a good pub.

Contoocook NH is just wnw of Concord with a teeny town center that has an interesting café with a small bar and decent food.  And a young vibe.

There are some cute small town west of Manchester.  I think Francestown, New Boston?

 

 

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Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

RPM model sort of just went wild for E MA later this evening. Gives a 6 spot not too far from Ray...maybe just NE of him...even brings a couple inches into BOS. Not sure I'd bit on that yet, but it's been a trend that needs to be watched.

Just had a look at that. Things have looked a little colder for my neck of the woods run by run since the overnight hours; if that tics just a bit more, it could be a nice evening in Framingham.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's all gonna ride on the upslope here.

Happening as expected with the east shifts within the last 24 hours on these Miller Bs.

Really nice upslope signal on the RGEM though...should help us get to 6+.

 

Your area has that advantage as well as the hills and mtns here, I have to rely on LP to track right

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Manchester is kind of an ugly town, unfortunately.

Concord has a nice main street with a good pub.

Contoocook NH is just wnw of Concord with a teeny town center that has an interesting café with a small bar and decent food.  And a young vibe.

There are some cute small town west of Manchester.  I think Francestown, New Boston?

 

 

I'm sitting in Tookie right now. town center is tiny for sure, the Everyday Cafe is a great spot, and has a nice bar. if pizza is more your thing, Dimitri's pizza is right around the corner, but it really is just a pizza joint. but they do serve beer.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RPM model sort of just went wild for E MA later this evening. Gives a 6 spot not too far from Ray...maybe just NE of him...even brings a couple inches into BOS. Not sure I'd bit on that yet, but it's been a trend that needs to be watched.

Wouldn't it be something if this turned into a extreme east coastal deal because it got so meso contracted ?

two storms come to mind from experience.  not analogs, but just to point out the contraction phenomenon.  One was that 1987 late January ..4th period blizzard warning issued by Taunton, that ended up being flurries through dim sun while the Cape got 20 inches of sawdust sideways in 60 mph gusts...  The other is a lesser significant, more obscure deal ...I think it was 1989... but there was a winter storm warning for a nor-easter, and then Harv came on at 11 and said the dreaded "however latest guidance" phrase of death - whenever they headlined their updates like that, odds were you wouldn't want to hear that came after.  That was no different... he was talking about how the system shrank into a smaller region of impact... that too kept the lions share of it closer to the Cape after saturated in warnings for like a day and half. 

different causes, perhaps, but seeing VT hinting at being dusted by late modeling trends, and then these quick cyclers trying to squeeze it more and more to the coast makes me think about contraction scenarios in general.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wouldn't it be something if this turned into a extreme east coastal deal because it got so meso contracted ?

two storms come to mind from experience.  not analogs, but just to point out the contraction phenomenon.  One was that 1987 late January ..4th period blizzard warning issued by Taunton, that ended up being flurries through dim sun while the Cape got 20 inches of sawdust sideways in 60 mph gusts...  The other is a lesser significant, more obscure deal ...I think it was 1989... but there was a winter storm warning for a nor-easter, and then Harv came on at 11 and said the dreaded "however latest guidance" phrase of death - whenever they headlined their updates like that, odds were you wouldn't want to hear that came after.  That was no different... he was talking about how the system shrank into a smaller region of impact... that too kept the lions share of it closer to the Cape after saturated in warnings for like a day and half. 

different causes, perhaps, but seeing VT hinting at being dusted by late modeling trends, and then these quick cyclers trying to squeeze it more and more to the coast makes me think about contraction scenarios in general.

 

There was actually an event in 2005...Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005 that had a convective-driven meso-low go nuts and "steal" the dynamics away from the interior. We had a warning out for 8-12" in ORH....we still managed something like 5-6", but our thunder was stolen by that compact meso-low. I think Plymouth, MA got about 16" and most of it fell in about a 5 hour window...just destroyed by compact and intense banding down in that area. They had originally been predicted to just get a couple inches of slop and flip to mostly rain. But it didn't happen...

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