Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 8 minutes ago, klw said: Just started here. I am not liking the NAM this morning! It went from 18 to 7 IMBY. NAM I have some grievances with you! This goes along with the 'needle thread' phenomenon and illustrates how the margin for error is pretty damn tight. Wiggles on the order of 50 miles mean 20 or 2" in these cases. The fact that the very last couple of cycles of model guidance (across varying types at that...) are showing frets, and hints and starts at bumping things east, it makes sense that now your snow numbers get lopped off pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Man this storm better produce or there will be a lot of deflated weenies. Lots energy and emotions invested in this thing. Good luck peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Keep in mind: Those trends have been great but all it has amounted to was Scott calling it "interesting". It's an interesting development. It's not concrete. Just interesting. We'll see. Pants off sarcasm was a weenie joke gone wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: Man this storm better produce or there will be a lot of deflated weenies. Lots energy and emotions invested in this thing. Good luck peeps. The emotions went from east to west, Now they are going from west to east with the swings..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Keep in mind: Those trends have been great but all it has amounted to was Scott calling it "interesting". It's an interesting development. It's not concrete. Just interesting. We'll see. Pants off sarcasm was a weenie joke gone wrong. Probably just bad timing with people hunting for there rope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: The emotions went from east to west, Now they are going from west to east with the swings..........lol Hopefully N NH still gets crushed, I have two friends who bagged two days of work to head for N Conway this morning based on my encouragement. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Hopefully N NH still gets crushed, I have two friends who bagged two days of work to head for N Conway this morning based on my encouragement. Lol. I think your going to be a hero to them............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I'm not liking the east trends as we get closer. I will probably cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 20 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Well....I guess it was a serious question? I dunno, just seemed like there was some pants dropping about it, that's why I asked. I really know nothing about the models except what I read on here. Be that as it may ... I did provide an explanation for how the models should be used if it was serious - but it 'sounds' a bit like you were tongue-in-cheek pointing out that folks are putting all the eggs in the HRRR basket... That's fine too - if they are doing so, they shouldn't be... However, I think for most there is a tendency to celebrate the eye-candy quotient of this or that run, and that secondarily can be misconstrued as something else. Thing is, the majority user of this forum is here to be with a community of winter enthusiasts. In fact I'd even go so far as to say the average user can't find the same celebratory 'joy' (for lack of better words) in general ...outside this medium in their respective sphere of influences and souls. I know almost everyone at my office, and all my siblings, ...my parents and bro circles can only tolerate it for a couple minutes before they gloss over and squirm out of conversations in certain haste ... Hell, even my imaginary girlfriend can't stand it.. seriously, this for all intents and purposes is a collection area for like enthusiasts (some sane, some nutty haha) - naturally, one should expect celebrating guidance, whether in incredulity or faith, as a primary tendency. We don't walk in and question why everyone in an art studio seems to using paint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 RGEM might keep ORH all snow. Or at least only briefly mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Going to be some ridiculous snowfall rates beneath that stinger as it develops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: RGEM might keep ORH all snow. Or at least only briefly mix. Is it colder than 6z was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM might keep ORH all snow. Or at least only briefly mix. Better here too. Think it keeps MHT-ASH pretty close to all snow. Probably only a brief mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 RGEM brings the low right over Scooters head it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 RGEM still brings the low over BOS.Maybe a hair east of 6z. Definitely a dumping for ORH north. Improvement near 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Guys! I'm going up to Jaffrey, NH to spend the night at the Benjamin Prescott in with my lady friend! Driving up at 11:30 before it gets nuts. I'll keep everyone posted from what should a Fantastic storm in an always fantastic spot. any of you guys near Jaffrey?? I'll bring the accordion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 RGEM turns off the lights for western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Better here too. Think it keeps MHT-ASH pretty close to all snow. Probably only a brief mix Looks like southeast NH is going to get rocked. Most of rockingham and stratham counties will stay all snow. I'm not surprised but many who live and work in these areas will be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Something more than 1-2" that was displayed on snow maps for my area last night would be great. I would like to break in the snow blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 15 minutes ago, mreaves said: I'm not liking the east trends as we get closer. I will probably cry. Looks like a fumble before crossing the goal line on replay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Looks RGEM has scored coup with this one. Thru 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 14z hrrr looks a little stronger with low.. a nudge east.. every few miles counts I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Looks like southeast NH is going to get rocked. Most of rockingham and stratham counties will stay all snow. I'm not surprised but many who live and work in these areas will be shocked. After seeing where this was tracking last night, Not surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I think Kevin may wind up getting a slushy 1-3 on the backside of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 That RGEM has it here in the solid 6-16" range................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, TheSnowman said: Guys! I'm going up to Jaffrey, NH to spend the night at the Benjamin Prescott in with my lady friend! Driving up at 11:30 before it gets nuts. I'll keep everyone posted from what should a Fantastic storm in an always fantastic spot. any of you guys near Jaffrey?? I'll bring the accordion! Should be fun there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I'm starting to think the 495 belt and NW may get away with staying mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, dryslot said: Looks like a fumble before crossing the goal line on replay BTV still says 8" for MPV and I am a bit east of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like RGEM has scored the coup with this one. This is thru 24 Remember to only take .8 (or a smidge less) to account for low ratios. I doubt we'll see anyone in SNE topping 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: RGEM turns off the lights for western areas. Huh? Looks ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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