Whineminster Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Is it good to put all our weight into the HRRR? Is that what is normally done so close to an event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 13z HRRR tracks the low over the elbow into BHB, That is quite a few tics to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 We will probably see thunderstorms, man I wish that was thunder snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: Is it good to put all our weight into the HRRR? Is that what is normally done so close to an event? It is when it's all you've got. SN, 26* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 We get backend precip, I hope that is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: Is it good to put all our weight into the HRRR? Is that what is normally done so close to an event? Well the trend is there, but lets see a few more runs show this. I'd watch the RAP and HRRR. However The NAM has also shown a faster development. I think your spot is in a good area right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: wife with mini me in NJ today, me thinks this weenie takes a drive to Tawyb or DITs local gentlmens club. unfortunately there are no "gentlemens clubs" in winsted, but in the dirty water, you got Mr.Happys...but not gonna be too great for Waterbury me thinks...also btw, it's snowing at a good clip, dusted up already...Ill take a faster deepening, and stick with my 4" I've been calling for imby all along and hope i bust high.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 6 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Is it good to put all our weight into the HRRR? Is that what is normally done so close to an event? I find it to change quite a bit from run to run and usually am not a big fan of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Inside 12 hrs it starts to have value. I also look for trend analysis this far out. That's more important than verbatim solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 This is where if the RGEM is on its game, It will be at the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Inside 12 hrs it starts to have value. I also look for trend analysis this far out. That's more important than verbatim solutions. In that case, Overnight models and the HRRR has gone in the right direction at least, Now if it translates to the surface obs then we will know if its real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: This is where if the RGEM is on its game, It will be at the 12z run Usually, although it has pooped itself recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Inside 12 hrs it starts to have value. I also look for trend analysis this far out. That's more important than verbatim solutions. Yeah- these mesos are about direction more than the actual run verbatim. Which way it's heading, etc. They can also be completely wrong. But when it's heading in the correct direction along with the other mesos as a *group*, take a bit of notice. If it was HRRR alone, it would mean nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Usually, although it has pooped itself recently. That's why i threw the caveat with the "if" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Inside 12 hrs it starts to have value. I also look for trend analysis this far out. That's more important than verbatim solutions. yeah, good for trends, not exact snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The HRRR has let me down way too many times past 6hr before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 For those in NE MA and near BOS, I'd like to see these trends continue and not back off. I would hold off getting too excited for now, but the trends are interesting, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: yeah, good for trends, not exact snow amounts. Most can figure out where it tracks to what the end results will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: The HRRR has let me down way too many times past 6hr before. Exactly, That's why i throw up caution, I have seen it crap its pants way to often, I want to see exactly where that SLP develops and its posistion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 14 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Is it good to put all our weight into the HRRR? Is that what is normally done so close to an event? Wait, are you serious with this question, or is that tongue-in-cheek sarcasm? It's fine if it's the latter - just can't hear critical vocal tone/inflection, so going just on the words alone ...HELL NO. I don't think anyone reputable, or who wants to be reputable in this game would ever put "all their weight" into one guidance source. Operational philosophy, 101: models are 'virtual' ... ? that may seem obvious, but, sometimes folks get lost in them. The social media vernacular has coined the expression, "modelology" ...it's related to the same flawed approach. The models really serve two purpose: a ... create a paradigm of what "might" happen, and then doing so several different ways (different model types and physics they used) allows the user to decide, based upon experience, education, ...gut intuition and good old fashion art, what is the course of least regret. Yes, sometimes, one model will turn out more correct than it's peers. But even crap-stain tools like the GGEM get shiney dog balls once in a blue moon. Point being, one has to be intelligent about using any of these so called "guidance," or they risk being miss-guided. b... the other is entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: 13z HRRR tracks the low over the elbow into BHB, That is quite a few tics to the east #crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 RPM also has the cold trend. This model was an inferno yesterday. http:// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Exactly, That's why i throw up caution, I have seen it crap its pants way to often I just look for trends. So far the mesos seem to be a bit further east...like east of BOS vs over the city. That's what I am looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 WTF....HMIMBY? Just for the fun of the text speak! In reality, this seems to be an interesting last minute shift but one that is less rare in these events than some might think. Elevation and location might help ORH. Looks like a BIG change for Cape Ann north towards Portland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just started here. I am not liking the NAM this morning! It went from 18 to 7 IMBY. NAM I have some grievances with you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 40 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: wife with mini me in NJ today, me thinks this weenie takes a drive to Tawyb or DITs local gentlmens club. You'll be weenieing out at Electric Blue for a different reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wait, are you serious with this question, or is that tongue-in-cheek sarcasm? Well....I guess it was a serious question? I dunno, just seemed like there was some pants dropping about it, that's why I asked. I really know nothing about the models except what I read on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: Well....I guess it was a serious question? I dunno, just seemed like there was some pants dropping about it, that's why I asked. I really know nothing about the models except what I read on here. The only one dropping draws was Jay. I think 5 of us said to wait and see the trends. But it's fair to say the trends are interesting for at least NE MA and into NE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just look for trends. So far the mesos seem to be a bit further east...like east of BOS vs over the city. That's what I am looking for. Yea, I just posted to that up a couple post back, Its really just seeing where the slp tracks, How soon it intensifys and where the mid level low centers follow, The rest speaks for itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: The only one dropping draws was Jay. I think 5 of us said to wait and see the trends. But it's fair to say the trends are interesting for at least NE MA and into NE CT. I mean... I wasn't seriously dropping draws. I still have my pants on for now. I will keep you posted when they come off though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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