CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Boy ORH is so close. They'll start as snow, but man not far NW it may stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Christ. We have gone full weenie. Red taggers watching HRRR runs this early. (I don't hate it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Been some fairly impressive obs in NE PA now moving into NJ cant post the sounding for your hill for some reason but hrrrrrrrr at hr 10+ supports snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: 12z HRRR is gonna look even better than the 11z. Impressive run Holy cow. HRRRGW. That pastes Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 LOL the 12z HRRR would bust high. Lets just say. Pants off, dance off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Holy cow. HRRRGW. That pastes Boston. My blinds just went back up, but my pants have lowered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, sbos_wx said: My blinds just went back up, but my pants have lowered Hold tight there chief. I would need to see successive runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, DomNH said: Like I said I'm glad I'm not actually forecasting this lol I could see 3'' of snow to slush or 8-10'' of paste. And I think that's about right...maybe a touch later. lol....me too. I remember events like this would drive me crazy with some of my clients. As Charlie Bagley (if anyone remembers him) used to say "prepare for the worst and hope for the best!". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 12z HRRR: BOS crashed from 42F-34F in an hour and gets SN+ for 2-3 hours. Looks epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Holy cow. HRRRGW. That pastes Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I looked at lightning threat and didn't see anything. Something else? I will see if I can find it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: cant post the sounding for your hill for some reason but hrrrrrrrr at hr 10+ supports snow. Someone last night posted the way the Mesos are programmed if 2m model temps are 34..it shows precip as rain, but in reality it could be snow. Or something like that. I'm sure it rains, but at least something interesting to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gah....what a 6 hr sh*t show for Dendrite, Gene, and Scott in the lakes region. Hopefully a lightning bolt takes out Brian's soil temp sensor again. Should be fun this evening. Wish I wasn't so under the weather so I could enjoy it more. I'm just hoping I don't lose power. Hopefully these east ticks keep me below 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 haha, Ray checked out watch him wake from his mental coma later and take his socks off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I don't want rain :(. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 12z HRRR looks like 5-9" interior essex and lollis in the nw elevations of 128 to those same totals. But that's 10:1. Should be pastier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, MetHerb said: lol....me too. I remember events like this would drive me crazy with some of my clients. As Charlie Bagley (if anyone remembers him) used to say "prepare for the worst and hope for the best!". Charley Bagely would always say "No big deal" for most every storm. Lol. Unless they were forecasting a foot, it was always no big deal to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 53 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Outside of the White Mtns and the Adjacent Maine Elevations this thing is a roll of the dice for N. VT (do they get in deform) could be 6 or 14 in Stowe CP of Maine away from immediate Coast (BL torch?/Dry slot) , 495-ORH to FIT-MHT-CON same deal One thing i noticed on the 0z Hi-Res Nam products last nite (not as much on the 6z that had a further east track and slightly slower development).....that a sort of backside Stinger was swinging thru Essex County close to 128 Belt around 11pm and dropping a a nice little burst. This appeared to be as rapid deepening was occuring and the low was just NE of PSM,NH. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/cld28.html I think the misconception that this is a "very difficult forecast" for a majority of the sub-forum is due to people being engaged in modelology rather than meteorology. The WPC forecast for track/intensity issued at 19z yesterday was on point. Aside from this, rain/snow/mix gradients and ratios are always a pain to decipher up to the start time of the event. I suspect that in terms of model run to run variance and lead team this event --as a nor Easter--is pretty much on par with the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: 12z HRRR looks like 5-9" interior essex and lollis in the nw elevations of 128 to those same totals. But that's 10:1. Should be pastier. It gets colder aloft and a sh*t ton of lift in the DGZ so it may not be complete paste if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 HRRR drops 4 here now and looks like NAM and RGEM http:// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Someone last night posted the way the Mesos are programmed if 2m model temps are 34..it shows precip as rain, but in reality it could be snow. Or something like that. I'm sure it rains, but at least something interesting to track yea, makes sense. and snow maps wont accumulate it. I think you will have fun on NE. 4-5" in this little micro climate system while couple miles west on 84 struggle. have fun take pics of the chutes falling and not your post storm driveway snowbanks, thanks lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 MPM is soon going to have me not even reaching advisory levels at his current rate of worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: I think the misconception that this is a "very difficult forecast" for a majority of the sub-forum is due to people being engaged in modelology rather than meteorology. The WPC forecast for track/intensity issued at 19z yesterday was on point. Aside from this, rain/snow/mix gradients and ratios are always a pain to decipher up to the start time of the event. I suspect that in terms of model run to run variance and lead team this event --as a nor Easter--is pretty much on par with the mean. It's definitely a very difficult forecast for a narrow area where lots of people live. This is the zone of 2" or 9" of high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It gets colder aloft and a sh*t ton of lift in the DGZ so it may not be complete paste if that happened. One thing we haven't discussed much is the wind. Gusts to 60 mentioned by BOX. Would be a fun evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: HRRR drops 4 here now and looks like NAM and RGEM Elevation will certainly help. We'll see how it unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 That's one interesting trend on those models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I can see Messangers nowcast east jog comments when I look at the hrrrr. crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I'd like to see what the 12z NAM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 24 minutes ago, MetHerb said: lol....me too. I remember events like this would drive me crazy with some of my clients. As Charlie Bagley (if anyone remembers him) used to say "prepare for the worst and hope for the best!". Yep, gun to weenie I'd say we're in for 7-8'' of paste here but it's easier to say that when you don't have anyone depending on your forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 HRRR dropping 4-5" imby lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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