Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher

[moneypitmike]

So, is this a canary in a coalmine or is the HRRR out to lunch with the qpf in central/western Mass and western CT?

 

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It would be helpful if you would be more specific regarding the location you are discussing, as I don't believe this assessment is accurate for the vast majority of the sub-forum. 

I'm talking about the CP of Interior Maine, MHT-ASH-FIT and the CRV in particular. In addition the Stowe Vermont Area is also a bit of a wildcard.

I'm not talking about MWN

Where this explodes....i.e where mid levels close and deepen is huge

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

So, is this a canary in a coalmine or is the HRRR out to lunch with the qpf in central/western Mass and western CT?

 

 

 

 

It's something to watch. The overnight runs were cutting qpf amounts to the west. Probably due to an overall weaker system strengthening later. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's something to watch. The overnight runs were cutting qpf amounts to the west. Probably due to an overall weaker system strengthening later. 

What do you make of the RGEM?

[HoarfrostHubb]

This is def a storm that Messenger would be all over.  Really miss his input

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's something to watch. The overnight runs were cutting qpf amounts to the west. Probably due to an overall weaker system strengthening later. 

.5 at low ratios is going to low-end advisory at best.  "Robbing Peter to Pay Paul", ftl.

.3" of qpf for a swath of CT and SW ORH county.  Ugly.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What do you make of the RGEM?

What about it. It was a bit colder so that is encouraging. There's really nothing obvious yet that we can point to that says it's right. 

[CoastalWx]

MHT getting back into the game perhaps too. It's funny how those two cities are so on the line of 2" or 8" lol. I think the probability of at least 3-4 in ORH certainly went up though. Seems like it's a question of how fast that comma head departs.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

MHT getting back into the game perhaps too. It's funny how those two cities are so on the line of 2" or 8" lol. I think the probability of at least 3-4 in ORH certainly went up though. Seems like it's a question of how fast that comma head departs.

RGEM develops it a bit sooner. Looks like models such as 4km NAM was just a hair later...does make a difference in snowfall at the very end. Models like HRRR we're even later. At this point it is a nowcast. 

[moneypitmike]

Might I suggest that we migrate all this into the obs thread?  Given that the 12z runs will be coinciding with the onset of precipitation, it might make things easier since invariably the two threads are going to start overlapping.

 

[ORH_wxman]

RAP model actually develops the 850 low pretty far SE. It would imply that even areas like the 128 belt would see a burst of good snow at the very end perhaps. It is able to crash the 925 temps as the low passes over the Cape. 

[CoastalWx]

I feel like tssn is also likely across NH and ME too. That's some good instability wrapping in with the dryslot.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM develops it a bit sooner. Looks like models such as 4km NAM was just a hair later...does make a difference in snowfall at the very end. Models like HRRR we're even later. At this point it is a nowcast. 

Well I hope you pull some off. I guess even Kevin too. I'm pretty interested to see how it pans out.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I hope you pull some off. I guess even Kevin too. I'm pretty interested to see how it pans out.

I'm very cautiously optimistic. Willis is with me right now. Batons in pocket 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Outside of the White Mtns and the Adjacent Maine Elevations this thing is a roll of the dice

for  N. VT (do they get in deform) could be 6 or 14 in Stowe

CP of Maine away from immediate Coast (BL torch?/Dry slot) , 495-ORH to FIT-MHT-CON same deal

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RAP model actually develops the 850 low pretty far SE. It would imply that even areas like the 128 belt would see a burst of good snow at the very end perhaps. It is able to crash the 925 temps as the low passes over the Cape. 

One thing i noticed on the 0z Hi-Res Nam products last nite (not as much on the 6z that had a further east track and slightly slower development).....that a sort of backside Stinger was swinging thru Essex County close to 128 Belt around 11pm and dropping a a nice little burst. This appeared to be as rapid deepening was occuring and the low was just NE of PSM,NH.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/cld28.html

[512high]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What about it. It was a bit colder so that is encouraging. There's really nothing obvious yet that we can point to that says it's right. 

Do you think I can pull 5" before mix? Also end of precip. by 10 pm or so???

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Outside of the White Mtns and the Adjacent Maine Elevations this thing is a roll of the dice

for  N. VT (do they get in deform) could be 6 or 14 in Stowe

CP of Maine away from immediate Coast (BL torch?/Dry slot) , 495-ORH to FIT-MHT-CON same deal

One thing i noticed on the Hi-Res Nam products last nite.....that a sort of backside Stinger was swinging thru Essex County close to 128 Belt around 11pm and dropping a a nice little burst. This appeared to be as rapid deepening was occuring and the low was just NE of PSM,NH.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/cld28.html

Our real wild card is how the upslope tomorrow performs...I doubt we see more than 3-6" from the actual system.  But deep layer cyclonic NW flow behind it may be the real storm here.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, 512high said:

Do you think I can pull 5" before mix? Also edge of precip. by 10 pm or so???

I'll Be in Nashua all day by Lake St. and Main. Obs will be fun but i have a concern that some elevation or a trip to Miller State park would be much more interesting

[moneypitmike]

HRRR qpf continues to be pretty meh for western zones.  With low ratios, looks more like high end advisory than anything else.  It also continues the idea of a qpf screw zone through a portion of CT/eastern Hampden/SW ORH county.

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Our real wild card is how the upslope tomorrow performs...I doubt we see more than 3-6" from the actual system.  But deep layer cyclonic NW flow behind it may be the real storm here.

per the Usual.

It must be surreal to watch the build up of these synoptic storms on the threads meanwhile you get 60%-70% of your  3K Mansfield Measurements (300 inches) from Upslope Enahancement that is not the subject of much fan fare.

[moneypitmike]

Since this is using a 10:1 ratios, we'd probably want to cut at least 20% off these totals:

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

HRRR qpf continues to be pretty meh for western zones.  With low ratios, looks more like high end advisory than anything else.  It also continues the idea of a qpf screw zone through a portion of CT/eastern Hampden/SW ORH county.

 

 

That's it's idea of where CTRV is. Shadowing 

[wx2fish]

That 11z HRRR runs hits the 495 corridor in NE MA pretty good. Looks like its coldest run yet. Will be interesting to see if it keeps that trend with the 12z

[PWMan]

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

Looks like we might be looking little better with tick east.

Good luck. We're toast here, and can look forward to more rain next week. This reminds me of living in coastal Mass.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That's it's idea of where CTRV is. Shadowing 

Interestingly, the snow map shows the valley where it actually is, so I think the qpf depiction may be something else.  Regardless, the overall qpf picture on it sucks for western areas.  As presented, some high towns in Franklin and Worcester County  might eek out a low-end warning with the crappy ratios.  For most, it's looking like a 3-5" deal.  Hopefully it's out-to-lunch.

[CT Valley Snowman]

11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

HRRR qpf continues to be pretty meh for western zones.  With low ratios, looks more like high end advisory than anything else.  It also continues the idea of a qpf screw zone through a portion of CT/eastern Hampden/SW ORH county.

 

 

in general it did ramp up amounts a bit from the previous run and the hrrr is also notorious for being too warm in the lower levels

[CoastalWx]

Wow that's impressive hrrr run. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

in general it did ramp up amounts a bit from the previous run and the hrrr is also notorious for being too warm in the lower levels

You also are subject to clown solutions after 12hrs out. I need to get the MPM QPF pic.

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gonna be some surprises with this one. Not nearly cut and dry like you think

I'll hope you're right

[DomNH]

I've been out of the forecasting game for a while, but the more I look at this the more I wouldn't be surprised if the ASH-MHT area is in for a serious blue bomb. I don't think we'll know if we can overcome that marginal layer from like 900-sfc until it happens. Glad I don't have to make an actual forecast for this area.