Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher

[40/70 Benchmark]

Final call:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com

[jbenedet]

Looks like the rgem is all by itself now. All guidance takes the system from CC to east of Portland, ME.

This will result in higher accums in SE NH.

[Damage In Tolland]

Last 2 runs of the RGEM put CT back in the game.

[Damage In Tolland]

NAM3K ..Just hoping for a couple inches ..We;ll see what happens..ORH north this is gonna be awesome. Enjoy ! Wish we lived there.

[moneypitmike]

All the NAM models (perhaps not the 3k) have introduced rain through essentially all of Massachusetts for a time lowering totals even through  GC and northern ORH where they had been solid for multiple runs.  Nowcast time, I guess.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

All the NAM models (perhaps not the 3k) have introduced rain through essentially all of Massachusetts for a time lowering totals even through  GC and northern ORH where they had been solid for multiple runs.  Nowcast time, I guess.

Very difficult to go against the meso models this close in. With explosive storms..they should handle this better,...but who knows

[moneypitmike]

BOX has trimmed the amounts in their warning to 5-10".  The reduction is reflected in their probability maps. 

 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Very difficult to go against the meso models this close in. With explosive storms..they should handle this better,...but who knows

 

That is my inclination which is why I'm bummed to see them now dropping rain even through GC.  I had not expected that to change in the final 6-12 hours before the start of the event.

As I was looking at the HRRR, I was suddenly thinking how great it would be to have Messenger here to play-by-play radar trends and unfolding HRRR/RAP models.. 

[TalcottWx]

I kept track of the models overnight.

Not much has changed in terms of modeling. It still looks like the same areas we've talked about for days. 

Pull down the blinds if you are coastal or south of the pike and move onto the next storm. 

Hope NNE enjoys this blockbuster. Maine friends should do well. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

BOX calling for possibility of 6:1 ratios here.    

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[moneypitmike]

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

BOX calling for possibility of 6:1 ratios here.    

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

That is hardly snow at all.  Who needs shoveling--just walk down the driveway and fart, and it'll all turn to water.

 

Regular clearing and 6-hour measurements will be crucial as this will compact quickly.

[moneypitmike]

This shows the hell of the CRV pretty well.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

I kept track of the models overnight.

Not much has changed in terms of modeling. It still looks like the same areas we've talked about for days. 

Pull down the blinds if you are coastal or south of the pike and move onto the next storm. 

Hope NNE enjoys this blockbuster. Maine friends should do well. 

Gonna be some surprises with this one. Not nearly cut and dry like you think

[codfishsnowman]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

That is hardly snow at all.  Who needs shoveling--just walk down the driveway and fart, and it'll all turn to water.

 

Regular clearing and 6-hour measurements will be crucial as this will compact quickly.

I think you will get crushed and have more like 8-9 to 1 ratios but down the road Greenfield might be 3-5 inches of slop....I forecast 10 plus for you...man snow

[codfishsnowman]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

This shows the hell of the CRV pretty well.

 

if only this was exploding off the delmarva it be S+ to Middletown and hpn like feb 2001

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I think you will get crushed and have more like 8-9 to 1 ratios but down the road Greenfield might be 3-5 inches of slop....I forecast 10 plus for you...man snow

As sad as it is for me to say it, if it is that heavy, I might actually go out toward the end of the day and shovel before the evening portion.  I guess I'm not as young as I used to be.

[codfishsnowman]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

As sad as it is for me to say it, if it is that heavy, I might actually go out toward the end of the day and shovel before the evening portion.  I guess I'm not as young as I used to be.

what do you have left for glacier base?

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

if only this was exploding off the delmarva it be S+ to Middletown and hpn like feb 2001

I LOVED that one--I was living in Westfield at the time.  Probably one of their biggest storms ever.

[Damage In Tolland]

That is one sick band of snow the RGEM develops over E NY and pivots east. It shows as rain..but that would be snow with elevation. That's my hope here. That it's correct

[codfishsnowman]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

I LOVED that one--I was living in Westfield at the time.  Probably one of their biggest storms ever.

it is a bit warmer to start with that one , yeah that was the last time I saw ttsn+ in a synoptic event....and it went on to clobber cne and most of nne too

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

what do you have left for glacier base?

I measured 4" when I got home Tuesday afternoon.  I'm guessing somewhere between 3-4" going into this.

[codfishsnowman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That is one sick band of snow the RGEM develops over E NY and pivots east. It shows as rain..but that would be snow with elevation. That's my hope here. That it's correct

I forecast 6 for you, 2 for me

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I forecast 6 for you, 2 for me

Lol. No way here. 3 is max.

[Lava Rock]

I mean there is a reason we call them clown maps. A shallow layer of warmth at the surface will easily be overcome in strong lift. It really isn't a super warm system in the mid levels, especially as that H5 low dives in. 

Looks like we might be looking little better with tick east.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I think this is one of the most difficult storms to forecast in recent memory

Models struggle somewhat with timing explosive SLP development

IF this struggles just a hair slower than the 0Z euro did with development this is going to be a very ugly wet storm and that "expect at least" graphic would be the ball park Accumulation.

Looking forward to going up to Whitefield for the long weekend and traversing over to Attitiash/Wildcat. The Cat will likely be buried.

 

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think this is one of the most difficult storms to forecast in recent memory

Models struggle somewhat with timing explosive SLP development

IF this struggles just a hair slower than the 0Z euro did with development this is going to be a very ugly wet storm and that "expect at least" graphic would be the ball park Accumulation.

Looking forward to going up to Whitefield for the long weekend and traversing over to Attitiash/Wildcat. The Cat will likely be buried.

 

It would be helpful if you would be more specific regarding the location you are discussing, as I don't believe this assessment is accurate for the vast majority of the sub-forum. 

[ORH_wxman]

Overnight guidance definitely more favorable ORH county than most of yesterday was. Def gonna be close for some areas in that ORH to ASH corridor, but at least the very latest guidance ticked a little more favorable. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think this is one of the most difficult storms to forecast in recent memory

Models struggle somewhat with timing explosive SLP development

IF this struggles just a hair slower than the 0Z euro did with development this is going to be a very ugly wet storm and that "expect at least" graphic would be the ball park Accumulation.

Looking forward to going up to Whitefield for the long weekend and traversing over to Attitiash/Wildcat. The Cat will likely be buried.

 

Pickles? Is that you?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Pickles? Is that you?

Yeah it is. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Pickles? Is that you?

I thought same thing.