OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Sometimes I like to view it by the QPF that falls as rather than snow accumulations themselves....and it shows the gradient...an inch or more of QPF as snow near ORH goes to almost nothing in less than 20 miles...the gradient is even tighter in SE NH. I suspect the gradient will be at least this tight in reality...the question is where does it set up: Something to be wary of with the clown maps is how they determine snow. It could pound at 34, but if the algorithm says no snow over 32, the clown map and reality could be pretty far off. But I'm in total agreement on the gradient. We could literally go from no deadline to warning in a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Saw one tweet of experimental lightning forecast. Maine and eastern NH could see decent thundersnow Signal is pretty consistent across guidance. Near that dry slot could rock and roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM clown map is giving a bit more hope to the 495 crowd and it a little more comfrtable for ASH-ORH: How we pray its right for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: I mean the mid level tracks are much more in line with the Euro now. EE rule in effect? Color me surprised, not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: How we pray its right for once Not all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: couldnt find soundings on there but i like there model page. ran sfc to 700 temp loops and its really close west of rte 8, not up in litchfield obv they look to grab a 4/5" spot imo. the 925 temps here crash but it may be too late. Im sure if i take a 15min ride up rte 7 to new milford i could see it rip big chutes between 21-24hr, http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?model=NAM&runtime=00&hour=24&coords=41.37%2C-73.48&id=&parcel=ml&weather=severe&submit=Generate+New+Sounding§or=US&level=700&product=spd Yeah go for it, they definitely should see something good. I would take a trip to Norfolk if I had the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Something to be wary of with the clown maps is how they determine snow. It could pound at 34, but if the algorithm says no snow over 32, the clown map and reality could be pretty far off. But I'm in total agreement on the gradient. We could literally go from no deadline to warning in a few miles. Yep and why Kevin might do a lot better shown. Those soundings with 1500 ft of 33 34 with huge VVS are the surprise spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, mreaves said: Not all of us. How was the Euro for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, H2Otown_WX said: http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?model=NAM&runtime=00&hour=24&coords=41.37%2C-73.48&id=&parcel=ml&weather=severe&submit=Generate+New+Sounding§or=US&level=700&product=spd Yeah go for it, they definitely should see something good. I would take a trip to Norfolk if I had the time. I like Pivotal Weather just click on a model map for a sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I like Pivotal Weather just click on a model map for a sounding Same applies to cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Something to be wary of with the clown maps is how they determine snow. It could pound at 34, but if the algorithm says no snow over 32, the clown map and reality could be pretty far off. But I'm in total agreement on the gradient. We could literally go from no deadline to warning in a few miles. Oh yeah. You know my feelings on clown maps in general. The RGEM one though does allow snow over 32 at the surface just for the record. What an awful forecast for MHT-ASH-ORH. That's some decent population where monster bust potential is quite high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yep and why Kevin might do a lot better shown. Those soundings with 1500 ft of 33 34 with huge VVS are the surprise spots. I mean there is a reason we call them clown maps. A shallow layer of warmth at the surface will easily be overcome in strong lift. It really isn't a super warm system in the mid levels, especially as that H5 low dives in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, mreaves said: Not all of us. Your good for a decent thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Oh yeah. You know my feelings on clown maps in general. The RGEM one though does allow snow over 32 at the surface just for the record. What an awful forecast for MHT-ASH-ORH. That's some decent population where monster bust potential is quite high. Yeah it's important to know how the sausage is made, even if it isn't pretty. The forecast in that corridor is truly like an all or nothing. Either a run of the mill storm or potentially crippling with heavy, wet paste. If you told me MHT got 3" or 13" I wouldn't be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 OF course i'll be Waiting up on EURO Working in ASH GF going to some awful concert in MHT tomm nite. Me thinks a hotel in MHT is a possibility. AS now cast as they can be for S NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I mean there is a reason we call them clown maps. A shallow layer of warmth at the surface will easily be overcome in strong lift. It really isn't a super warm system in the mid levels, especially as that H5 low dives in. That's what's been interesting with this system, only a minority of outliers have suggested any type of mid-level torch, otherwise fate is mostly decided by how rapid the deepening cyclogenesis is in flipping boundary areas from RA to SN+ There are going to be some surprises for the uninformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: That's what's been interesting with this system, only a minority of outliers have suggested any type of mid-level torch, otherwise fate is mostly decided by how rapid the deepening cyclogenesis is in flipping boundary areas from RA to SN+ There are going to be some surprises for the uninformed. And it makes the forecast much tougher. It's what models do the worst. So oddly a mid level torch might be a more confident forecast at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: And it makes the forecast much tougher. It's what models do the worst. So oddly a mid level torch might be a more confident forecast at this point. It's what I'm used to resigning my fate to when consistently shown by models. Lack of ml torch has been what's kept me confident of warning snows here since tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Don't envy any NE mets tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Get under this banding and it's 2 To 4 per hour stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Get under this banding and it's 2 To 4 per hour stuff Naked snow angels in +TSSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 30 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Same applies to cod. lol im an idiot. got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: lol im an idiot. got it. No, actually you are one of the most informed posters on the board. ; ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 21 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Don't envy any NE mets tonight. yea, these quick hitting explosive miller Bs are always tough. just cant broad brush impact for the edges, like it pounds or it doesnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 35 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Don't envy any NE mets tonight. I would still go pretty conservative for places like ORH...There are a lot of red flags...antecedent airmass, possible late development, dryslots if it comes west. I think I'd go 2-4" in ORH and 6-8" in MHT. Looks like a good NH storm from the mid level track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Euro def east and more tame with things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 11 minutes ago, nzucker said: I would still go pretty conservative for places like ORH...There are a lot of red flags...antecedent airmass, possible late development, dryslots if it comes west. I think I'd go 2-4" in ORH and 6-8" in MHT. Looks like a good NH storm from the mid level track. With Euro staying the course tonight I'm confident with ORH to hang in the 6+ camp. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 35 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: No, actually you are one of the most informed posters on the board. ; ) ha, thx but credit is due to those who truly have spent a lifetime within the physics of it all. this place is great to learn, cheer, laugh, and cry...sometimes all in one cycle of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: With Euro staying the course tonight I'm confident with ORH to hang in the 6+ camp. Book it. I'm def not that confident, lol...but the biggest question for me is the marginal warm punch and if it is overcome by UVVs. I still don't like how the Euro is kind of weak until late in the game...I would like to see an earlier strengthening like the RGEM/NAM....but I guess we will just be relegated to nowcasting this sucker....oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 interesting because at first glance looks like the good ole convection shunting east gets it to somewhat struggle wrapping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.