wx2fish Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Based on the mid levels, that's the zone. Unless the Euro mid levels is more correct, in which case that probably would be shifted east. You'll have some low level forcing east of that area, but I wouldn't want to put all my eggs in that basket. Time for a winter trip to Pittsburg. Mid level track is great for them and it looks pretty favorable for a period of pretty good upslope Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Time for a winter trip to Pittsburg. Mid level track is great for them and it looks pretty favorable for a period of pretty good upslope Friday morning That should probably save them from anything they lose on the easterly downslope early in the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 13 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Your further west than most It's NAM-ish where that zone is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Forked favorite model is always the NAM. Dude uses it on every example he posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That should probably save them from anything they lose on the easterly downslope early in the event. Yep coastals definitely not usually their thing, but in this case I could see them doing very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Forked favorite model is always the NAM. Dude uses it on every example he posts I like what they are putting out this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 looking forward to seeing how this one play out here in NW vermont. i could see us getting 2 inches, and maybe over a foot. tough call, dont envy the mets... good luck to all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Yep coastals definitely not usually their thing, but in this case I could see them doing very well It'll help if the H7 deformation can max out right overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I'm literally preparing for anywhere from 3"-10" here. The lower end a bit disappointing but only emotionally challenging, the higher end means hours of clearing cement and possible power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I'm always jelly of your wind during storms at your home locations. I see plenty of wind at the office and on the hill with the snow...but very little down in the village. I find it interesting that so many folks are enamored with the wind – there’s almost nothing positive that comes of it – it just messes with the snow deposition, makes snow measurement more difficult, obliterates dendrites and increases snow density, scours areas free of snow, causes wind crust to further ruin snow consistency, makes it feel colder, causes power outages, etc. I think we’re pretty fortunate that we have so many forested and otherwise protected areas at various elevations around here to mitigate a lot of the wind effects. We’re also lucky in places like the Northern Greens that we don’t always have to have a massive storm to get dumped on. As adk/PF have mentioned to varying degrees, and I agree, the best skiing often isn’t from these big, wound up storms like the one in the forecast. They can be great base builders, and can offer up some great skiing, but sometimes they can come with an unnecessary amount of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 50 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I'll take 2-4 on NYE though. Either way the booze will be flowing readily. As for this storm I'll set the over/under for BDL at 1". Who's taking the over? I've been up there for NYE before and the booze certainly did flow. Have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 46 minutes ago, J.Spin said: I find it interesting that so many folks are enamored with the wind – there’s almost nothing positive that comes of it – it just messes with the snow deposition, makes snow measurement more difficult, obliterates dendrites and increases snow density, scours areas free of snow, causes wind crust to further ruin snow consistency, makes it feel colder, causes power outages, etc. I think we’re pretty fortunate that we have so many forested and otherwise protected areas at various elevations around here to mitigate a lot of the wind effects. We’re also lucky in places like the Northern Greens that we don’t always have to have a massive storm to get dumped on. As adk/PF have mentioned to varying degrees, and I agree, the best skiing often isn’t from these big, wound up storms like the one in the forecast. They can be great base builders, and can offer up some great skiing, but sometimes they can come with an unnecessary amount of wind. One perspective, sometimes fighting the wind up high to get to the top, and then finding the hidden spots, un-slabbed and tranquil, can be pretty fun. Fight the elements at the peaks, and get down off the ridgelines into the fun zone. But yes, one very significant challenge with synoptic events is wind- it really makes for variable conditions if you're a mountain rider type, the winds (typical with larger synoptic events) generally wreak havoc. A 6 day constant flow of upsloping pinwheel/shortwaves/clippers with a big low stalled over the maritimes bringing constant refresh and 40-50"? Definitely the best for skiing, but right now I'd like to see some base get laid down and find the spots that are sheltered- if we can. The Valentines Day storm was a classic huge dump (40" in the mountains?), but not really amazing skiing- unless you were in really tight trees where it was sheltered. But then you're just falling into drifted tree wells! The 40" upslope several years ago- waaaaay better. When was the last time we had a stalled out low over the maritimes, anyway? The pinwheel- those are the best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 0Z Nam took a tic or two east of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 hour ago, radarman said: MRG opened 3/13 with a high of about 0 and blowing 30mph... Bottomless in drifts.... Mt Ellen closed Friday but reopened Saturday to wind slab powder and sunny skies. Just a brilliant couple days. I got a bit of windburn on my nose after 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 00z nam gets it going in nrn ORH county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 What an absolute crushing for the whites into NW Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: looking at the mid level low track i think the 18" amounts should easily make it to PF. i also think dry slotting might be an issue for dendrite/eek Yes this is my fear that I mentioned earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 00z nam gets it going in nrn ORH county. Looks a bit better to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Significant changes to 540 line in northern and western CT between 18z and 0z NAM when comparing hour 24 and hour 18. Good jog south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Ridiculous qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 I think Kevin's going to like his favorite 3km experimental model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Ridiculous qpf looks great for NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 11 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Looks a bit better to me so does this push the "higher" possible amounts more east, or not enough at this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Ridiculous qpf That's over 1" of qpf in all of Franklin Co. close to 1.25 for N of Rt 2. Probably all snow. 8:1 ratios in Greenfield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: That's over 1" of qpf in all of Franklin Co. close to 1.25 for N of Rt 2. Probably all snow. 8:1 ratios in Greenfield? I would think 7-8:1, Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 Can I get me a helpin' of this? The 3KM is also mighty tasty--still waiting on the 12km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 0Z Nam took a tic or two east of 18zKeep the east trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Ridiculous qpf2.5" rain would suck. I know we're not getting that but even 1" would be painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 10 minutes ago, 512high said: so does this push the "higher" possible amounts more east, or not enough at this run? Still pretty dicey at 925 for a time, but is probably slightly better for you than 18z. Have to see how they rest of the 0z looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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