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Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher


moneypitmike

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1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Thanks for the insight! I wasn't suggesting that there should be one but just wondering out loud since they are pretty rare

Especially interior. They are just hard to verify.

But this event is tricky in that it will be windy, but most likely not while it's snowing.

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23 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

It ain't Jackson, but I'd love to see my p/c play out:

Thursday
Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 31. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. West wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
 
I guess that p/c encompasses their "greatest potential' map:
 

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

Your elevation will do you well for better accumulations but even here I'm expecting full on plastering with power out. 

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35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

MPM, its December man, haha. Every post seems to say its an "interior winter" or a "NNE winter" or a "non-coastal New England" winter.  Its December.  Lets keep the blanket statements at this juncture to a minimum.  Its one storm.  In December. 

Lol. Ball has been dropped before the runner crossed the plane.Recovered by the defense, and were going the other way.

Tons of time to finish below normal lol

 

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1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

looking at the mid level low track i think the 18" amounts should easily make it to PF. i also think dry slotting might be an issue for dendrite/eek

It's a good point. All the angst about rain my just turn into a dry slot anyway. Doesn't help the snow totals, but maybe won't destroy what pack there is around this part of Maine.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's a good point. All the angst about rain my just turn into a dry slot anyway. Doesn't help the snow totals, but maybe won't destroy what pack there is around this part of Maine.

I know you don't look much down this way, but would you go 0 for CT? Or could NAM 3,4 be on right path?

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah probably Valentines Day 2014...that one ripped 18" in eastern VT too but I think was pretty meh here comparatively (maybe 8-10"?)....we did real well in the March storm that year with like 15" on 1.5" of QPF.  That storm had poor snow growth but was ripping 0.1"+ liquid in the bucket for like 8 hours straight.

None of us northwest of Dendrite had anything big synoptically in 14-15 and again in 15-16 obviously.  

Ws Vulcan 3/12/14.  Around 18" iirc

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It's gonna take a more rapid explosive development with some type of enhanced banding over N CT otherwise I'm thinking it's a 1-2 deal with some  perhaps a spot 3 in the highest elevations .   It's at least worth watching, these dynamic type systems tend to surprise and can be somewhat of a nowcast but there's pretty good consensus that we'll be a day late and a dollar short down here.   

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know you don't look much down this way, but would you go 0 for CT? Or could NAM 3,4 be on right path?

I mean zero, maybe not, but probably not much more than that. Your elevation and an evolution like the Euro may be enough to see you whiten the ground before the changeover. But unless you can get those wet bulb zero heights much shallower, it's not looking pretty.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean zero, maybe not, but probably not much more than that. Your elevation and an evolution like the Euro may be enough to see you whiten the ground before the changeover. But unless you can get those wet bulb zero heights much shallower, it's not looking pretty.

Only hope is a quicker and earlier bombing like NAM.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Only hope is a quicker and earlier bombing like NAM.

It is definitely earlier and deeper than the RGEM. It's not far from the GFS timing and location initially, but the GFS is definitely on a more inland track and is pretty torched for you at onset. And the Euro is definitely the leader of the colder/eastern envelope.

Closing H7 off over LWM instead of Dendrite makes a world of difference to a lot of posters. 

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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Your further west than most

Based on the mid levels, that's the zone. Unless the Euro mid levels is more correct, in which case that probably would be shifted east.

You'll have some low level forcing east of that area, but I wouldn't want to put all my eggs in that basket.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Based on the mid levels, that's the zone. Unless the Euro mid levels is more correct, in which case that probably would be shifted east.

You'll have some low level forcing east of that area, but I wouldn't want to put all my eggs in that basket.

Could be a bit more compact than usual I think. The forcing doesn't extend as far west as you typically see but I bet we'll get a good deform zone into VT.

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Just now, CT Rain said:

Could be a bit more compact than usual I think. The forcing doesn't extend as far west as you typically see but I bet we'll get a good deform zone into VT.

Yeah, given how fast and late it develops, I doubt it has enough time to throw a deformation band all the way back to SLK. But probably naked snow angels at Stowe.

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