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Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

 

Its a brutal call around here to Manchester too. Part of me wants to say the gradient will be a little south of were its modeled given the dynamics, but I have seen how we can easily torch the low levels strong low level easterly flow

When I look at the soundings, you can easily see how big lift could make it a paste bomb...some of those frames where the 850 0C line is trying to intrude past ORH-ASH, the skew-T shows like basically isothermal with maybe +1 at 900-925mb. There's no obvious smoking gun warm layer of like 3-4C or something that makes it an easy call for rain.

So yeah, it's going to be a brutal forecast for that ORH-ASH-MHT zone. You could easily see 1-2 inches of slush getting washed away if things break wrong but could also see double digits if things break right. The hard part, is I'm not sure how much of a intermediate zone there is going to be...like it's easy to say "we'll lets just forecast 4-6" as a safe play"....that might be the most unlikely amount. If it snows enough to reach 5 or 6", it's probably going to blow past that amount in a blue bomb scenario. Maybe a really narrow zone goes to town, then mixes/flips, and then ends as a quick burst to get that 5" amount...but I feel like it's either going to be 8"+ or 2" or less. Maybe that will change or become a bit clearer in the final cycle or two here, but man, not easy.

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512high

512high

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When I look at the soundings, you can easily see how big lift could make it a paste bomb...some of those frames where the 850 0C line is trying to intrude past ORH-ASH, the skew-T shows like basically isothermal with maybe +1 at 900-925mb. There's no obvious smoking gun warm layer of like 3-4C or something that makes it an easy call for rain.

So yeah, it's going to be a brutal forecast for that ORH-ASH-MHT zone. You could easily see 1-2 inches of slush getting washed away if things break wrong but could also see double digits if things break right. The hard part, is I'm not sure how much of a intermediate zone there is going to be...like it's easy to say "we'll lets just forecast 4-6" as a safe play"....that might be the most unlikely amount. If it snows enough to reach 5 or 6", it's probably going to blow past that amount in a blue bomb scenario. Maybe a really narrow zone goes to town, then mixes/flips, and then ends as a quick burst to get that 5" amount...but I feel like it's either going to be 8"+ or 2" or less. Maybe that will change or become a bit clearer in the final cycle or two here, but man, not easy.

you got my attention, this is one heck of a horse race if you will..... thank you for your feedback

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I'm still wondering why the mesos want to track this from LI up over Boston whereas the globals want to take it from LI to CC and then Portland ME.  I suspect the mesos are keying in on the deep convection (LHR) and are sensing that the best location for pressure falls is collocated with that area, despite the best UL synoptic region for pressure falls being further east. Personally I'm with the globals based on how the Upper levels evolve.

...the thing is, sometimes that convective stuff drives these things...there are a plethora of examples in lore where x-y-z system seemed very dictated by feed-backs from convection...  interesting

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When I look at the soundings, you can easily see how big lift could make it a paste bomb...some of those frames where the 850 0C line is trying to intrude past ORH-ASH, the skew-T shows like basically isothermal with maybe +1 at 900-925mb. There's no obvious smoking gun warm layer of like 3-4C or something that makes it an easy call for rain.

So yeah, it's going to be a brutal forecast for that ORH-ASH-MHT zone. You could easily see 1-2 inches of slush getting washed away if things break wrong but could also see double digits if things break right. The hard part, is I'm not sure how much of a intermediate zone there is going to be...like it's easy to say "we'll lets just forecast 4-6" as a safe play"....that might be the most unlikely amount. If it snows enough to reach 5 or 6", it's probably going to blow past that amount in a blue bomb scenario. Maybe a really narrow zone goes to town, then mixes/flips, and then ends as a quick burst to get that 5" amount...but I feel like it's either going to be 8"+ or 2" or less. Maybe that will change or become a bit clearer in the final cycle or two here, but man, not easy.

I envision a bunch of posters shocked when they start getting pancake sized flakes...maybe even slushballs falling or something lol.  Like that lift is insane.  You start getting graupel, huge wet flakes, convective stuff with thunder maybe even?  Maybe it can wash out +1C to +2C warm pockets that are moving through...you start getting like 45dbz echoes of soft ball sized flakes, lol.

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wx2fish

wx2fish

Posted
Posted
Just now, powderfreak said:

I envision a bunch of posters shocked when they start getting pancake sized flakes...maybe even slushballs falling or something lol.  Like that lift is insane.  You start getting graupel, huge wet flakes, convective stuff with thunder maybe even?  Maybe it can wash out +1C to +2C warm pockets that are moving through...you start getting like 45dbz echoes of soft ball sized flakes, lol.

Yeah thats the thing if we get the lift I have no doubt we can wash out a 1-2C layer. Thats why the earlier development is so important. Its been said a couple times today but Id rather have it west bombing earlier then further east but weaker.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

PF is funny in all this... he's clearly riding the fine line between rooting on a left track while dancing around a catastrophe for SNE   :lmao:

Ha gotta  try to be diplomatic when 90-95% of the posters here want me to smoke cirrus all the time. 

I don't need to jackpot but will take 6"+.  Its an interesting storm to track as not many in the last 4 years have had a track and look like this.  Pretty much the last 4 winters would have this at 970mb at the Benchmark with Blizzard Warnings for BOS lol.

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Dan76

Dan76

Posted
Posted

Hmm.... 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH
FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
240 PM EST WED DEC 28 2016

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE FOREST
SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH.

THE US FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER HAS ISSUED A
BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH.

* TIMING...IN EFFECT FROM 12 NOON THURSDAY TO 12 MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE CUTLER RIVER DRAINAGE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
  MOUNT WASHINGTON INCLUDING FORECAST AREAS IN TUCKERMAN AND
  HUNTINGTON RAVINES. WATCH CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN OTHER AREAS
  OUTSIDE THOSE FORECAST BY THE AVALANCHE CENTER.

* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY. DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS MAY
  DEVELOP WITH WIDESPREAD NATURAL AVALANCHE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

* REASON/IMPACTS...A POTENT WINTER STORM ARRIVES THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
  FRIDAY. THIS SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH WINDS WHICH WILL
  CREATE UNSTABLE WIND SLABS.

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, wx2fish said:

Yeah thats the thing if we get the lift I have no doubt we can wash out a 1-2C layer. Thats why the earlier development is so important. Its been said a couple times today but Id rather have it west bombing earlier then further east but weaker.

A track over like Newport, RI and into BOS while superbombing earlier would probably destroy much of interior SNE...but that same track with a late development is pretty much garbage except the furthest NW areas. So yeah...the earlier bombing is def preferred. But it's not really happening on any of the recent guidance. Some of the higher res NAM models are doing it "just" early enough to make a difference, but I'd like to see one nudge on tonight's models in that direction.

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tavwtby

tavwtby

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Hmm.... 


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH
FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
240 PM EST WED DEC 28 2016

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE FOREST
SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH.

THE US FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER HAS ISSUED A
BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH.

* TIMING...IN EFFECT FROM 12 NOON THURSDAY TO 12 MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE CUTLER RIVER DRAINAGE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
  MOUNT WASHINGTON INCLUDING FORECAST AREAS IN TUCKERMAN AND
  HUNTINGTON RAVINES. WATCH CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN OTHER AREAS
  OUTSIDE THOSE FORECAST BY THE AVALANCHE CENTER.

* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY. DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS MAY
  DEVELOP WITH WIDESPREAD NATURAL AVALANCHE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

* REASON/IMPACTS...A POTENT WINTER STORM ARRIVES THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
  FRIDAY. THIS SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH WINDS WHICH WILL
  CREATE UNSTABLE WIND SLABS.

I gotta say, this is the first time I've ever seen an avalanche warning in a public statement, course I don't live near any of those kind of area, but interesting nonetheless.

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Hmm.... 


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH
FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
240 PM EST WED DEC 28 2016

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE FOREST
SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH.

THE US FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER HAS ISSUED A
BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH.

* TIMING...IN EFFECT FROM 12 NOON THURSDAY TO 12 MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE CUTLER RIVER DRAINAGE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
  MOUNT WASHINGTON INCLUDING FORECAST AREAS IN TUCKERMAN AND
  HUNTINGTON RAVINES. WATCH CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN OTHER AREAS
  OUTSIDE THOSE FORECAST BY THE AVALANCHE CENTER.

* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY. DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS MAY
  DEVELOP WITH WIDESPREAD NATURAL AVALANCHE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

* REASON/IMPACTS...A POTENT WINTER STORM ARRIVES THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
  FRIDAY. THIS SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH WINDS WHICH WILL
  CREATE UNSTABLE WIND SLABS.

 

Awesome...and a good watch.  Someone will get killed if MWN gets 20-30" with high winds laying on the ice-slick snowpack up there.  Should see some huge avalanches in the ravines.

The only time I've seen an Avalanche Warning issued here was after Valentines Day 2007 when like 3-4 feet fell in 24 hours.  BTV issued an Avalanche Warning at the request of Stowe Mountain Rescue and Emergency Management.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha gotta  try to be diplomatic when 90-95% of the posters here want me to smoke cirrus all the time. 

I don't need to jackpot but will take 6"+.  Its an interesting storm to track as not many in the last 4 years have had a track and look like this.  Pretty much the last 4 winters would have this at 970mb at the Benchmark with Blizzard Warnings for BOS lol.

As much as it's a bummer here, you guys have put up with some lackluster winters....and I'm not gonna go into last year lol. Enjoy it.  I have zero interest in this other than to see if that borderline corridor can flip to paste plus given the dynamics. I think we hashed out how it can happen...now we see how the cards play out.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha gotta  try to be diplomatic when 90-95% of the posters here want me to smoke cirrus all the time. 

I don't need to jackpot but will take 6"+.  Its an interesting storm to track as not many in the last 4 years have had a track and look like this.  Pretty much the last 4 winters would have this at 970mb at the Benchmark with Blizzard Warnings for BOS lol.

you know... somewhere, out there, there's another winter where the snow caps last until mid may due to shear mass and volume - GW depending...heh.  

i head yeah.  i've really found me self not caring..  I kind of am too hardened by years of model abusing the doe-eyed hopes and dreams of the innocent like NCEP were a count Rugeneque wth their life suckers ..."I've just sucked one winter of your life away - i may one day go as high as five winter, but we really don't know what that would do to you so, let's just start with what we have here -- how do you feel."  

then, based upon those responses, engineer the next generation of modeling technology capable of finding even more terrifying methods by which to install 'reasonable' hope only to violently violate proverbial butts.  

j/k... point is, once this weird over-abundant gradient thing kicked in i'm sort of in the school that it's a blessing having anything to follow ...so i'm not looking a gift horse in the mouth.  hey, if you can manage a snow event out of this ... more power to ya -

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Dan76

Dan76

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Awesome...and a good watch.  Someone will get killed if MWN gets 20-30" with high winds laying on the ice-slick snowpack up there.  Should see some huge avalanches in the ravines.

Would love to be at wildcat Fri morning...damn

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Dan76

Dan76

Posted
Posted

P/C for Tucks   

Thursday
Snow, mainly after 11am. High near 19. Wind chill values as low as -20. Windy, with a southeast wind 30 to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -20. Very windy, with an east wind 35 to 45 mph becoming west 75 to 85 mph. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible.
Friday
Snow likely, mainly before 1pm, then a chance of snow showers after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 12. Very windy, with a west wind 65 to 75 mph decreasing to 55 to 65 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
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