512high Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The euro is coming back down I think from some of those earlier amped up solutions. That's a big deal for CT. As usual, some sort of a compromise is the way to go in forecasting, with the understanding of model biases like GFS low level temps. scott, so that means a good chance i will be out of a warning zone and into advisory if and when NWS changes or updates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, 512high said: scott, so that means a good chance i will be out of a warning zone and into advisory if and when NWS changes or updates? You're right on the line. They'll probably stick with what they have for continuity. I also would like to see the euro before making any decisions. I'm sure OceanStwx would gladly answer any questions you may have as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, 512high said: scott, so that means a good chance i will be out of a warning zone and into advisory if and when NWS changes or updates? Doubtful you see a change in headline, because there is still a chance, but you just gained a whole bunch more uncertainty since the midnight shift's warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You're right on the line. They'll probably stick with what they have for continuity. I also would like to see the euro before making any decisions. I'm sure OceanStwx would gladly answer any questions you may have as well. 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Doubtful you see a change in headline, because there is still a chance, but you just gained a whole bunch more uncertainty since the midnight shift's warning. Thank you both.......will await to watch EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'd be surprised if the Euro didn't tick a little later with development...that has been the trend since 18z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You're right on the line. They'll probably stick with what they have for continuity. I also would like to see the euro before making any decisions. I'm sure OceanStwx would gladly answer any questions you may have as well. I would really have preferred another shift with a watch up, but se la vie. At least it's an interesting forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I would really have preferred another shift with a watch up, but se la vie. At least it's an interesting forecast. Looked like a lot of hands went into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, dryslot said: Looked like a lot of hands went into it We might have shot ourselves in the foot across the just inland from the coast zones in ME. Like I could see ASH with more snow than AUG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, OceanStWx said: We might have shot ourselves in the foot across the just inland from the coast zones in ME. Like I could see ASH with more snow than AUG. might you have to split some counties? based on this mornings runs NW Merrimack County could have 18 inches while SE has a foot less. Probably the same thing around Manchester and Nashua. Also probably some interesting micro effects with an E or ESE wind bumping into some hills around here. CON and north up the river is around 300 ft. I am 5-7 miles west of the river at 675 and then some areas just west of me in Salisbury and Andover are 1000+ and then Mt. Kearsarge, a few miles to my west, is 3000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We might have shot ourselves in the foot across the just inland from the coast zones in ME. Like I could see ASH with more snow than AUG. Nothing a little "whiteout" can't fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We might have shot ourselves in the foot across the just inland from the coast zones in ME. Like I could see ASH with more snow than AUG. After what has transpired so far today, I would have to agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 No one looks at the NWS anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: might you have to split some counties? based on this mornings runs NW Merrimack County could have 18 inches while SE has a foot less. Probably the same thing around Manchester and Nashua. Also probably some interesting micro effects with an E or ESE wind bumping into some hills around here. CON and north up the river is around 300 ft. I am 5-7 miles west of the river at 675 and then some areas just west of me in Salisbury and Andover are 1000+ and then Mt. Kearsarge, a few miles to my west, is 3000. We have zone splits that are hard coded into certain counties. Like Hillsborough, you have the ASH-MHT corridor "Eastern Hillsborough" and central and western Hillsborough. We currently don't have a split in Merrimack, though it certainly could be useful at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: No one looks at the NWS anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euro looks like it will follow the trend of most guidance...through 30 hours, it is looking like the NW development is the theme vs previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: We have zone splits that are hard coded into certain counties. Like Hillsborough, you have the ASH-MHT corridor "Eastern Hillsborough" and central and western Hillsborough. We currently don't have a split in Merrimack, though it certainly could be useful at times. You should take a ride up here in winter, from west to east across the county. Very very different. Huge elevation changes, and a very different look. the NW 1/2 of the county looks and feels like NNE and the SE much like the coastal plain. Please tell me this awful trend today isn't gonna continue, as I think I am getting near to riding that line that so many others are ending up on the wrong side of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Hmm, 12z Euro 992mb just NW of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Actually maybe a last second kick east? Damned Euro doing weird stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: You should take a ride up here in winter, from west to east across the county. Very very different. Huge elevation changes, and a very different look. the NW 1/2 of the county looks and feels like NNE and the SE much like the coastal plain. Please tell me this awful trend today isn't gonna continue, as I think I am getting near to riding that line that so many others are ending up on the wrong side of. You look fine now, but as you say you don't want the NW trend to continue much. If you can stay right NW of the dividing line you could be in for the most fun with convection and what not. And I know the area fairly well. I've spent a lot of time at Sunapee, which is actually in the far western part of the county, and it is always like a different world up there from the 93/89 interchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: After what has transpired so far today, I would have to agree Can you 'splain this to a noob, being just north of AUG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Actually maybe a last second kick east? Damned Euro doing weird stuff. Looks like it ticked east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 East of 0Z. War. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Yeah Euro is def a tick east of 00z...wasn't expecting that based on the 30h panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah Euro is def a tick east of 00z...wasn't expecting that based on the 30h panel. Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanwxnh Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I DO -- every chance I can (Gray Maine - thank you_ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: East of 0Z. War. Its going to be a better hit here, Looks like a track thru BHB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Southern dacks, 4 to 6 inches? Looks like that's the consensus, o well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 The deepening really accelerating between ACK and the BM is better for most. It is the outlier now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 GYX-KLEW 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: East of 0Z. War. 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah Euro is def a tick east of 00z...wasn't expecting that based on the 30h panel. Look anything like what the RGEM was doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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