jbenedet Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I also have noticed a later trend in closing off H7 which is usually not great for those wanting S+....esp in SNE. Hopefully you guys on the line work out for the snowier. Yes. This is why I strongly favor GFS track/intensity. The mesos seem "bend back" happy. Not sure if it's a convective feedback issue or what, but the UL capture doesn't happen until east of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Why? GFS is often the warmest in the boundary layer. Well, first, I wasn't expecting it to leap-frog them like it did. Secondly, see my 'first'. The Canadian has trimmed back a little from it's 00z run. It does provide a widespread inch or two over the weekend fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 12zGGEM looks like what I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GGEM stop getting my hopes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 If I was chasing, I would probably choose a place like Jackson, NH or Bethel, ME. They seem to be in the "safest" spots for getting hammered. You could ride the line a little more in a place like Ossipee, NH over to Bridgton, ME...and might be rewarded with mega totals just west of the sloped front there, but you risk being exposed to some of the northwest solution outliers dryslotting you and even tainting for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yes. This is why I strongly favor GFS track/intensity. The mesos seem "bend back" happy. Not sure if it's a convective feedback issue or what, but the UL capture doesn't happen until east of MA. Does the capture slow it down at all? I hav noticed the timeframe for snow to begin and end is longer than it was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 As much as I am disappointed not being able to head to Winni....I'm also wondering if that's a better decision since it could be a wet snow. Don't need power outages. Hopefully Brian's chicken coop has an added support beam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: stop getting my hopes up I hate even posting this model, But it is in line with what the Euro has been looking like, The GFS has been as well to an extent, Its the meso's that want to rip this back to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: As much as I am disappointed not being able to head to Winni....I'm also wondering if that's a better decision since it could be a wet snow. Don't need power outages. Hopefully Brian's chicken coop has an added support beam. My few miles west of Brian might help me if these west solutions come to be. But wouldn't this kind of storm have wet snow for a while but then end as 2"/hour powder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, mahk_webstah said: My few miles west of Brian might help me if these west solutions come to be. But wouldn't this kind of storm have wet snow for a while but then end as 2"/hour powder? Yeah very well could at the end of the CCB as temps drop below 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah very well could at the end of the CCB as temps drop below 850mb. I was assuming, that if I am to exceed 15", it would be 8-10" of wet snow at 9 or 10:1, followed by 12-15:1 powder. Great for base building, given that we only have a 3" base left now. Bummer that you can't get north, but I'm sure you'll have your chances in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: As much as I am disappointed not being able to head to Winni....I'm also wondering if that's a better decision since it could be a wet snow. Don't need power outages. Hopefully Brian's chicken coop has an added support beam. I got a new inverter generator so I'd say power outages are very unlikely. Hopefully nobody in the area bought a snowthrower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I hate even posting this model, But it is in line with what the Euro has been looking like, The GFS has been as well to an extent, Its the meso's that want to rip this back to the NW I figure in 90 minutes, we'll know whether the war will continue or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I figure in 90 minutes, we'll know whether the war will continue or not. I'm hedging the war will continue right up until the actual battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 meh, don't want to start any sort of debate ...but, i grow weary of reading GFS-bash posts when from my own experience it hasn't exactly failed this cold season, either. as far as this system: personally, i bought into the non-hyrdrostatic forcing on this a bit more than i normally would, because i focused on an intense appeal of very compressed isotherms in the 850 mb along the del marva. perhaps proven wrong - we'll see in the end -- but there are plenty of examples in history where that sort of anomaly fed-back; having fast and small cyclonic rapid intensification collocated with excess difluence running over top was/ is not unprecedented. It just may not transpire in this scenario when all is said and done, but if so... this would also be another reason not to bash the gfs. just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: My few miles west of Brian might help me if these west solutions come to be. But wouldn't this kind of storm have wet snow for a while but then end as 2"/hour powder? Well I'm about 25 miles north of Brian and at 1100 feet. Maybe more of a 28-30F snow up at my elevation. I saw Jerry forecasted only 5-10" for me since I'm half way between Brian and MarkO. Definately don't need power outages so hope my elevation helps with a bit drier snow. I'll guess 13". For many of the big storms I get that number! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 12z Ukie looks like its similar to 12z GGEM and the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 What types of expectations to folks have for winds throughout the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Ukie looks like its similar to 12z GGEM Looks like it's cutting right near the canal. Do you get snowfall maps from that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Looks like it's cutting right near the canal. Do you get snowfall maps from that? Nope, Just can see where the 540 thickness is, And if its east of here, Its usually good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Jeff that track works for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Ukie looks like its similar to 12z GGEM Just looked at the GGEM. It was pretty good for the MHT-ORH corridor. 925 low is offshore vs overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 41 minutes ago, dryslot said: 1:45, Not often 1255 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: What types of expectations to folks have for winds throughout the region? Inland it doesn't look like a ton of wind initially, but there is signal for an increase in the boundary layer depth as the backlash CAA starts towards the coast and heights collapse. Inland maybe gusts around 40 mph the way models have trended, but closer to the coast could be sneaky higher wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 1255 I'm still on DST....lol, Its 12:45 on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Ukie QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Ukie QPF There is plenty of QPF, Not sure how much is liquid or snow especially eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm still on DST....lol, Its 12:45 on SV Yeah figure 36 hrs at 1255. I really haven't seen the Euro change in 5 days, pretty much ignoring everything else trying to play catchup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yeah figure 36 hrs at 1255. I really haven't seen the Euro change in 5 days, pretty much ignoring everything else trying to play catchup Yeah, 12z UKIE and 12z GGEM look like the 0z Euro as well as the 12z GFS to an extent with the low track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yeah figure 36 hrs at 1255. I really haven't seen the Euro change in 5 days, pretty much ignoring everything else trying to play catchup The euro is coming back down I think from some of those earlier amped up solutions. That's a big deal for CT. As usual, some sort of a compromise is the way to go in forecasting, with the understanding of model biases like GFS low level temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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