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Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher


moneypitmike

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Strikes me as quite similar in large scaled structure as that which translated through back over Christmas Eve day, with one difference (which could prove important): this go around there's richer antecedent cold. 

The Xmas eve system ran up through rotted polar flow, and thus there was no/too little bl resistance to help out in matters. 

These event types that translate along high gradients really expose how feed-backs (lost) cause sharp differences.  If there was more bl resistance, triple point would have cut down on the amount of lower level SW flow across the area ... = less critical thickness, WAA...  As a result we had big ball rain drops at 37 F ... you could tell that there must have been golf ball sized aggregate clumps transitioning quickly to rain water (probably) at cloud height or something..   If we had more antecedent cold in that, a thump would have ended in drizzle type deal.

Anyway, this time Tuesday's backside CAA helps lay down a fresher non-modified polar slab of air... and then an equally rapid translation of gradient saturated troughing rolls over head, and because the bl resistance is denser/greater, we see more triple point/feed-backs there in and ... heh, the UKMET proooobably takes that physical evolution to a nutty extreme..but it does at least show how having actual frontal tapestry in place helps integrate storm systems.  

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48 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Track might be too far inland for a bunch of folks

I think from you and NW will be fine with that track.  For GC, I'm concerned for---wait for it--qpf due to the late development.  I could see something where we scrounge up 3" while Lunenberg and points NE score 6-10". 

 

Bottom line, I think this is destined to be a nice hit for Maine with questions for us in SNE as to which areas can muster a few inches to no snow.  That's much has not changed a whole lot in recent runs.

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I think from you and NW will be fine with that track.  For GC, I'm concerned for---wait for it--qpf due to the late development.  I could see something where we scrounge up 3" while Lunenberg and points NE score 6-10". 

 

Bottom line, I think this is destined to be a nice hit for Maine with questions for us in SNE as to which areas can muster a few inches to no snow.  That's much has not changed a whole lot in recent runs.

Yeah, I think Lunenburg can pull 18" out of this

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5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I think from you and NW will be fine with that track.  For GC, I'm concerned for---wait for it--qpf due to the late development.  I could see something where we scrounge up 3" while Lunenberg and points NE score 6-10". 

 

Bottom line, I think this is destined to be a nice hit for Maine with questions for us in SNE as to which areas can muster a few inches to no snow.  That's much has not changed a whole lot in recent runs.

Your house in Shelburne will get more snow than Maine house I bet.

4-6" here is my first guess. 

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9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Your house in Shelburne will get more snow than Maine house I bet.

4-6" here is my first guess. 

I'm not sold on that.......so far, I keep seeing them come in as equals.  But there's greater upside opportunity in Maine.

On a separate note, I think GYX might want to rethink the lack of zr advisory here.  As of late morning, they have kept the coastal zone out of it.  The current temp of 27 seems a bit shy of the 35* high they're showing in the p/c (lower 30's is in the zfp though).

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3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm not sold on that.......so far, I keep seeing them come in as equals.  But there's greater upside opportunity in Maine.

On a separate note, I think GYX might want to rethink the lack of zr advisory here.  As of late morning, they have kept the coastal zone out of it.  The current temp of 27 seems a bit shy of the 35* high they're showing in the p/c (lower 30's is in the zfp though).

Temps all winter have been on the low side of projections up here

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