dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Track might be too far inland for a bunch of folks If it went from eastern cape to this position it would not be bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Strikes me as quite similar in large scaled structure as that which translated through back over Christmas Eve day, with one difference (which could prove important): this go around there's richer antecedent cold. The Xmas eve system ran up through rotted polar flow, and thus there was no/too little bl resistance to help out in matters. These event types that translate along high gradients really expose how feed-backs (lost) cause sharp differences. If there was more bl resistance, triple point would have cut down on the amount of lower level SW flow across the area ... = less critical thickness, WAA... As a result we had big ball rain drops at 37 F ... you could tell that there must have been golf ball sized aggregate clumps transitioning quickly to rain water (probably) at cloud height or something.. If we had more antecedent cold in that, a thump would have ended in drizzle type deal. Anyway, this time Tuesday's backside CAA helps lay down a fresher non-modified polar slab of air... and then an equally rapid translation of gradient saturated troughing rolls over head, and because the bl resistance is denser/greater, we see more triple point/feed-backs there in and ... heh, the UKMET proooobably takes that physical evolution to a nutty extreme..but it does at least show how having actual frontal tapestry in place helps integrate storm systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 48 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Track might be too far inland for a bunch of folks I think from you and NW will be fine with that track. For GC, I'm concerned for---wait for it--qpf due to the late development. I could see something where we scrounge up 3" while Lunenberg and points NE score 6-10". Bottom line, I think this is destined to be a nice hit for Maine with questions for us in SNE as to which areas can muster a few inches to no snow. That's much has not changed a whole lot in recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 I concede, this is all rain for Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I concede, this is all rain for Cape and Islands. You have seen the light. In case misery loves company, I think a big chunk of SNE is going to be seeing rain/mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I think from you and NW will be fine with that track. For GC, I'm concerned for---wait for it--qpf due to the late development. I could see something where we scrounge up 3" while Lunenberg and points NE score 6-10". Bottom line, I think this is destined to be a nice hit for Maine with questions for us in SNE as to which areas can muster a few inches to no snow. That's much has not changed a whole lot in recent runs. Yeah, I think Lunenburg can pull 18" out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I think from you and NW will be fine with that track. For GC, I'm concerned for---wait for it--qpf due to the late development. I could see something where we scrounge up 3" while Lunenberg and points NE score 6-10". Bottom line, I think this is destined to be a nice hit for Maine with questions for us in SNE as to which areas can muster a few inches to no snow. That's much has not changed a whole lot in recent runs. Your house in Shelburne will get more snow than Maine house I bet. 4-6" here is my first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Your house in Shelburne will get more snow than Maine house I bet. 4-6" here is my first guess. I'm not sold on that.......so far, I keep seeing them come in as equals. But there's greater upside opportunity in Maine. On a separate note, I think GYX might want to rethink the lack of zr advisory here. As of late morning, they have kept the coastal zone out of it. The current temp of 27 seems a bit shy of the 35* high they're showing in the p/c (lower 30's is in the zfp though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm not sold on that.......so far, I keep seeing them come in as equals. But there's greater upside opportunity in Maine. On a separate note, I think GYX might want to rethink the lack of zr advisory here. As of late morning, they have kept the coastal zone out of it. The current temp of 27 seems a bit shy of the 35* high they're showing in the p/c (lower 30's is in the zfp though). Temps all winter have been on the low side of projections up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Looks like it goes over se MA to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Euro crushes cne and NNE again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro crushes cne and NNE again. Does it look same as 00z? Still getting advisity snows south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Wow euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro crushes cne and NNE again. Did not look bad back towards the Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 Deep system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Sorry Ray but euro brings a surprising amount of backlash snow to eastern areas away from Cape Cod,MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Sorry Ray but euro brings a surprising amount of backlash snow to eastern areas away from Cape Cod,MA. Yea, I don't doubt that its modeled; never do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Deep system. sorry last of relatives gone! GFS on board with euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 That's a mauling on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Certain aspects of it remind me of Boxing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's a mauling on the Euro I'm guessing lots of taint along the coast based on that track. But, hopefully it will be a snow, to rain, back to snow situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Euro pretty much holding this solution run after run to me lends credence to weighting the solution 70% Euro and blend the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm guessing lots of taint along the coast based on that track. But, hopefully it will be a snow, to rain, back to snow situation. 6-12" down in Bath, wasn't much taint except for the islands, It was a tic or two colder as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Visceral reaction....I'd say anywhere east of I 495 is screwed. West of there is in contention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Euro looked tick colder than 00z from the sfc-925 across N MA/S NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: Euro looked tick colder than 00z from the sfc-925 across N MA/S NH Yes it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Can someone throw up a snow map? Sounds like 3-6" NW of BOS- PVD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: 6-12" down in Bath, wasn't much taint except for the islands, It was a tic or two colder as well Thanks. That might make my decision-making easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can someone throw up a snow map? Sounds like 3-6" NW of BOS- PVD? If I were home, I would.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 When/where does it explode? I just have the 72 to 96 interval. Not very useful..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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