USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Big time miss for about 85% of the region, good luck up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was pretty much a normal December, which given the +NAO/-PNA canvas, I will take and run into January. 1-2" i'm going with here.. hopefully the clipper adds another 1-2" have not paid much attention to that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, Bostonseminole said: 1-2" i'm going with here.. hopefully the clipper adds another 1-2" have not paid much attention to that one That clipper is getting more and more energetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'm out on this threat for mby. Good luck NNE! My call: Kevin to Ray: 1-3 ORH-FIT-MHT: 2-4 hubb: 3-6 mpm at this pit: 8-12 dendrite to Mahk: 5-10 pf: 12+ dryslot: 4-8 downeast: 3-6 tamatack: 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Not at all, Its going the wrong way for many except if you live west it just gets better I'm still interested to see what happens though. The gradient is going to be tighter than models show...I'm pretty certain of that. So it could still end up decent in some areas that are looking precarious now. We'll have to watch for the typical uncertainties too like convective feedback in a system like this...it's often overused as a weenie term in modeling but it's a very real thing that would be most likely to show up in this type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I'm out on this threat for mby. Good luck NNE! My call: Kevin to Ray: 1-3 ORH-FIT-MHT: 2-4 mpm at this pit: 8-12 dendrite to Mahk: 5-10 pf: 12+ dryslot: 4-8 downeast: 3-6 tamatack: 8-12 Ditto for here. Not so sure about 8-12 for MPM. Thinking 5-8. OTOH it is a magical place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 The GFS is simply ghastly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Hubby is probably still under the gun for ORH area. Even ORH perhaps...but the trends haven't been great. Still..I mean 10 miles could mean catpaws or 1/4SM Paste +. Just too soon to figure out. In general, it's always dicey to depend on dynamics. Even the euro has 0C 950 line back to the NW corner of MA into SNH. I also have noticed a later trend in closing off H7 which is usually not great for those wanting S+....esp in SNE. Hopefully you guys on the line work out for the snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, scoob40 said: Ditto for here. Not so sure about 8-12 for MPM. Thinking 5-8. OTOH it is a magical place. Maybe I can score 8 and you can both be right. GFS says that will be a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm still interested to see what happens though. The gradient is going to be tighter than models show...I'm pretty certain of that. So it could still end up decent in some areas that are looking precarious now. We'll have to watch for the typical uncertainties too like convective feedback in a system like this...it's often overused as a weenie term in modeling but it's a very real thing that would be most likely to show up in this type of event. The Euro holding serve run after run consistently keeps an eyebrow raised that the other models may be having issues with the convection, I know in the past, It doesn't usually end up where its modeled to track because of it, We have seen that many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 19 minutes ago, mreaves said: Might be ok. Upper Valley over to Dendrite might be better. Has been ticking west some though so eastern VT should be good either way but probably not the jackpot zone but still good. To chase I'd pass Stowe and go to North Conway or Jackson, NH...honestly. Maybe Bethel, ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Seems like one of those storms that are notoriously difficult to predict--especially along the S/E edge of the snow/rain line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Pull the plug south of the Pike. Doubtful anyone in CT gets more than 3" or so I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 Come 4:00p.m. packages, many areas could have their warnings dropped to advisories; watch areas may end up with advisories or perhaps even no hazards. The Euro is the last hope for most of the board's posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Maybe I can score 8 and you can both be right. GFS says that will be a stretch. GFS has me on the rain-snow line now and you with paste and taint. I'm more interested in future mesoscale runs at this point. I still think it is warning criteria here when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 There we go...GFS gets in on the party with 1.2" QPF here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hubby is probably still under the gun for ORH area. Even ORH perhaps...but the trends haven't been great. Still..I mean 10 miles could mean catpaws or 1/4SM Paste +. Just too soon to figure out. In general, it's always dicey to depend on dynamics. Even the euro has 0C 950 line back to the NW corner of MA into SNH. I also have noticed a later trend in closing off H7 which is usually not great for those wanting S+....esp in SNE. Hopefully you guys on the line work out for the snowier. The trend of later development and also northwest development is definitely bad for getting a CCB in SNE. Hopefully it has over trended slightly and we see sooner development again in the final 24h. That would make a huge difference in that 495 and NW belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: GFS has me on the rain-snow line now and you with paste and taint. I'm more interested in future mesoscale runs at this point. I still think it is warning criteria here when all is said and done. I'm hoping we can end December with 30". I think the last time I did that was with the boost of the 24" from Roctober. That says a lot about how crappy the last few years have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 This is trending toward garbage outside of NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: The Euro holding serve run after run consistently keeps an eyebrow raised that the other models may be having issues with the convection, I know in the past, It doesn't usually end up where its modeled to track because of it, We have seen that many times When does the next Euro run come out? if it holds and ends up being wrong, how often does that happen where it's precision is rock solid for 3 days, then utterly fails? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The trend of later development and also northwest development is definitely bad for getting a CCB in SNE. Hopefully it has over trended slightly and we see sooner development again in the final 24h. That would make a huge difference in that 495 and NW belt. It's too bad the GFS has come in even warmer than the meso's.......I was not expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Then you get the solution like the 12z GGEM has which is more in line to what the 0z Euro printed out last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: It's too bad the GFS has come in even warmer than the meso's.......I was not expecting that. Why? GFS is often the warmest in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: When does the next Euro run come out? if it holds and ends up being wrong, how often does that happen where it's precision is rock solid for 3 days, then utterly fails? 1:45, Not often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'm afraid this is beginning to look increasingly look like what the "most likely" map is going to turn into. Welcome to a NNE winter, boys and girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Why? GFS is often the warmest in the boundary layer. That GFS track actually is not bad even here if you discount that BL issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, moneypitmike said: I'm afraid this is beginning to look increasingly look like what the "most likely" map is going to turn into. Welcome to a NNE winter, boys and girls. That would be a colossal Euro fail. I would take a compromise with other modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: I'm afraid this is beginning to look increasingly look like what the "most likely" map is going to turn into. Welcome to a NNE winter, boys and girls. not for most in ME at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Hmm, I'm still catching up to things this morning after the holidays off. But I'm not loving the inland cut late with the low pressure. I know models can sometimes get carried away with this evolution, but I could see this one being legit. The PV will be conserved and advect along in the direction of winds at trop level. Streamlines are almost due south as the PV anomaly rounds the corner in New England. It would argue for the surface features to also track in that direction (S to N). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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