Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

yeah, but it stings when we're that close and end up with crap.

Not much you can do about it.

[bobbutts]

8 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Rgem is better back this way. Absolutely destroys around KCON. Looked a hair colder than 06z at 925

This is one of those situations where I think I just want QPF and let the battle happen right over me.  I get a shot at huge totals but likely end up with some tainting but the ski areas cash in.

[Baroclinic Zone]

RGEM Shawnee Peak Crusher.

[bobbutts]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I might chase..haven't been following this closely...Stowe?

gyx has the bullseye for the Whites into w. Maine.  Maybe more a Conway/Fryeburg/ Sunday River chaser.  I always think of Conway as a shadow area though.. Maybe someone else has better spot in that area to suggest.

[moneypitmike]

I expect the finals will look something very similar to this:

 

[moneypitmike]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not much you can do about it.

It stings more when 24 hours earlier you were getting croaked.

[Lava Rock]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I expect the finals will look something very similar to this:

 

talk about a razors edge.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I may be clearing 6-10" of cement come tomorrow afternoon. 

[ono]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Much more realistic than 6z

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If we get even half to 2/3's of that in N VT, then backside Friiday- that's a big event here up in the mountains.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I expect the finals will look something very similar to this:

 

 

This has been the same for us for days and days now.  WNE winter. 

[tavwtby]

ALY snowfall maps go from <1 to 11"...most likely for northern Litchfield, 7"

[Colonel Badger]

Trend is not our friend. Gray has us under. WSW and 12-16 but I'm thinking 3" after the last 12hrs of west movement. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

This has never appeared to be a viable threat for my region.

Onto 2017.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This has never appeared as a viable threat for my region.

Onto 2017.

Are you thinking a complete shutout for you?  

[mahk_webstah]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The TROWAL doesn't care about the snowpack. The more amplified and further west it gets the more the rain will push inland. 

Well but the location of TROWAL is a function of the track and I'm saying maybe the west trend has peaked and starts to slip back.  The Euro and 18Z will tell the tale.

I love the TROWAL, and I think it love me too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Are you thinking a complete shutout for you?  

Maybe an inch or two of slop...but pretty much.

First guess was 1-3" after the 00z euro, and I am not hedging high.

[Typhoon Tip]

Needle threader event ... It is a spatial outcome in this thing, more so than timing individual components.  With needle threading ... as a kind of intra office vernacular, it is when by the grace of dice-rolling a system translates through a key-hole range of space (and time) where desired outcomes can still take place.  The "desire" of course being winter confetti. Winter storm needle thread events still have all the p-types and transition zone layouts, but they are very narrow ...not allowing for any wiggle room in storm track and size.  Alter these latter facets by THAT much and bonanza becomes famine real fast.   

Like most needle thread events, this particular evolution doesn't have a lower tropospheric blocking +PP situated in space and time, North of the area, as this is approaching.  All there is to offer boundary layer resistance is the present polar air that's advecting in; it would actually be enough, *IF* the storm would move in a favorable key-hole (needle threading...) latitude and longitude. I approximate yesterday's 12z NAM positions ...if perhaps bumped E by say 30 naut mi - but at the time, it was close enough!

Unfortunately ... any such key-hole is not over land, over eastern Massachusetts.  If that happens, no argument from me. 

I kind of thought yesterday in all honesty that the RGEM would behave more "key-hole" like output (and things could still bump in that direction but it gets difficult in a punishing Stockholm Syndrome winter to visualize ANYthing breaking in one's favor...). I was a little surprised frankly that it came in almost mockingly wrongly west. I figured it might see the boundary layer differently in terms of resistance and so forth; so far, that anticipation appears entirely wrong.   

So, what gossamer cold we are importing today may just as well be powerless to stop the fire hose mechanical power of 120 kt 500 mb wind max (fantastic Meteorology in its own rite really) blowing almost straight over Logan Airport. 

Having said all that... my retrospection on this is already formulating a conclusion. The southern tier, subtropical height wall ... that's really spanning those latitudes all the way around the N. Hemisphere, is at a minimum partial in why we are in this situation in the first place. The immense static gradient and physically necessary wind velocities integrating the atmosphere has a way of smoothing out necessary perturbations that are less than planetary in scale. You need those for individual storm system components to evolve in time for our latitude. It kind of makes sense given those on-going background limitations that this particular critter is both bumped west and waiting...  

 

[dryslot]

If the Euro holds serve, It will be on its own

[40/70 Benchmark]

No complaints, though.

Look forward to January.

[Whineminster]

Probably like 4" out this way is my guess.  Oh well I'll take it. Maybe it'll trend back the other way a bit. 

[mreaves]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I might chase..haven't been following this closely...Stowe?

Might be ok.  Upper Valley over to Dendrite might be better.  Has been ticking west some though so eastern VT should be good either way but probably not the jackpot zone but still good.

[mahk_webstah]

11 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

gyx has the bullseye for the Whites into w. Maine.  Maybe more a Conway/Fryeburg/ Sunday River chaser.  I always think of Conway as a shadow area though.. Maybe someone else has better spot in that area to suggest.

I wonder where the tight Merrimack County gradient will set up.  My new place in Boscawen at 550 ft might do worse than my current place on the Webster Salisbury line at 675 ft.  Or Tilton may do a good bit better than Webster.  The snowfall gradient is intense over our county and into SW Belknap.  Lets see where the band with the yellow pixels sets up.  Wonder if I might see a mico affect with the strong easterly winds running into Mt. Kearsarge.  At least you think there'd be some upslope enhancement somewhere in Salisbury, Andover or Warner.

[ORH_wxman]

Not good trends east of ORH-MHT line. 

[Lava Rock]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

If the Euro holds serve, It will be on its own

but it still could be the correct outcome, right?

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

but it still could be the correct outcome, right?

If it does, It will either be right or a total fail

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Probably like 4" out this way is my guess.  Oh well I'll take it. Maybe it'll trend back the other way a bit. 

Your getting 6-8" easily. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not good trends east of ORH-MHT line. 

Not at all, Its going the wrong way for many except if you live west it just gets better

[Bostonseminole]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Hideous for 85% of SNE.  Rejoicing in VT though.

GFS is just as hideous.. lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

It was pretty much a normal December, which given the +NAO/-PNA canvas, I will take and run into January.

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX should be making significant adjustments for 4PM