ice1972 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here was 12z....clear trend that I had expected: Oh man....I'll take a half foot and run....he'll yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM significantly improved for interior MA vs 12z run...goes to town earlier. Probably hangs a 20 spot somewhere near Bridgton, lol. The house I rented in Denmark, Maine on Moose pond would be a nice location right about now For later: https://weather.bridgtonacademy.org/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'm thinking barely anything around 128 South and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: Oh man....I'll take a half foot and run....he'll yeah Except that 0z halves that total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Except that 0z halves that total. I think we see a bust for interior locations of rt 2 and the berks on the high side. Gradient is going to be pretty tight. I think this is on the way to disappointing most other members of the forum (counting out NNE). Sound like a debby but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Except that 0z halves that total. Figures.....put a fork in it folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euro looks like GEM..I buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just woke up hot, but my temp is 102.0F. Torch. I'm guessing my high was around 103F. These model solutions at least make me feel a little bit better. Another euro and 6z NAM crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 24 minutes ago, dendrite said: Just woke up hot, but my temp is 102.0F. Torch. I'm guessing my high was around 103F. These model solutions at least make me feel a little bit better. Another euro and 6z NAM crushing. Storm will make up for it. I think 10-12" there. Feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Good morning..NAM 3KM is a monster hit CT north. .Crusher Regions Prev. Runs Forecast GIFTrend GIFPage SettingsKeyboard Shortcuts Precip/Moisture Lower Dynamics Upper Dynamics Thermodynamics 06z Wednesday, Dec 28 fh = 6006z Wednesday, Dec 28 fh = 6600z Wednesday, Dec 28 fh = 7218z Tuesday, Dec 27 fh = 7812z Tuesday, Dec 27 fh = 8406z Tuesday, Dec 27 fh = 9000z Tuesday, Dec 27 fh = 9618z Monday, Dec 26 fh = 10212z Monday, Dec 26 fh = 10806z Monday, Dec 26 fh = 11400z Monday, Dec 26 fh = 12018z Sunday, Dec 25 fh = 12612z Sunday, Dec 25 fh = 13206z Sunday, Dec 25 fh = 13800z Sunday, Dec 25 fh = 14418z Saturday, Dec 24 fh = 15012z Saturday, Dec 24 fh = 15606z Saturday, Dec 24 fh = 16200z Saturday, Dec 24 fh = 16818z Friday, Dec 23 fh = 17412z Friday, Dec 23 fh = 18006z Friday, Dec 23 fh = 18600z Friday, Dec 23 fh = 19218z Thursday, Dec 22 fh = 19812z Thursday, Dec 22 fh = 20406z Thursday, Dec 22 fh = 21000z Thursday, Dec 22 fh = 21618z Wednesday, Dec 21 fh = 22212z Wednesday, Dec 21 fh = 22806z Wednesday, Dec 21 Forecast Hour:60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 there goes DIT ruining mobile view from his TT snow maps. anyway, thats the extreme outliner for CT now. all other guidance torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Oh man, 6z NAM on crack with like over 1.5" QPF here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Good morning..NAM 3KM is a monster hit CT north. .Crusher Regions Prev. Runs Forecast GIFTrend GIFPage SettingsKeyboard Shortcuts Precip/Moisture Lower Dynamics Upper Dynamics Thermodynamics 06z Wednesday, Dec 28 fh = 6006z Wednesday, Dec 28 fh = 6600z Wednesday, Dec 28 fh = 7218z Tuesday, Dec 27 fh = 7812z Tuesday, Dec 27 fh = 8406z Tuesday, Dec 27 fh = 9000z Tuesday, Dec 27 fh = 9618z Monday, Dec 26 fh = 10212z Monday, Dec 26 fh = 10806z Monday, Dec 26 fh = 11400z Monday, Dec 26 fh = 12018z Sunday, Dec 25 fh = 12612z Sunday, Dec 25 fh = 13206z Sunday, Dec 25 fh = 13800z Sunday, Dec 25 fh = 14418z Saturday, Dec 24 fh = 15012z Saturday, Dec 24 fh = 15606z Saturday, Dec 24 fh = 16200z Saturday, Dec 24 fh = 16818z Friday, Dec 23 fh = 17412z Friday, Dec 23 fh = 18006z Friday, Dec 23 fh = 18600z Friday, Dec 23 fh = 19218z Thursday, Dec 22 fh = 19812z Thursday, Dec 22 fh = 20406z Thursday, Dec 22 fh = 21000z Thursday, Dec 22 fh = 21618z Wednesday, Dec 21 fh = 22212z Wednesday, Dec 21 fh = 22806z Wednesday, Dec 21 Forecast Hour:60 that will NOT happen down here...you may get a quick few inches and brief low visibility and a good scalping(best case scenario) but all the deck destroying will be 10-20 mi n/w of me....the models really are in excellent agreement about this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 46 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Oh man, 6z NAM on crack with like over 1.5" QPF here. Really amped up. Although by 48hr its not really far off the euro position. Also the 6z rgem is within its later range, BOS-PWM type track too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Not one member of the GEPS or GEFS is as far west as the NAM. The GFS has been steadfast on a track from CC to east of portland. I don't think that's something we should ignore. The NAM is amp happy -- yet again. I think a 50/50 NAM/GFS blend is in order (for track and intensity). Have to weigh the GFS heavily for UL synoptic development, but need the resolution of the NAM to better evaluate mesoscale convective processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Not one member of the GEPS or GEFS is as far west as the NAM. The GFS has been steadfast on a track from CC to east or portland. I don't think that's something we should NOT ignore. The NAM is amp happy -- yet again. I think a 50/50 NAM/GFS blend is in order (for track and intensity). Have to weigh the GFS heavily for UL synoptic development, but need the resolution of the NAM to better evaluate mesoscale convective processes. That 6z NAM run really floods Rockingham County in the low levels. Given the dynamics I think its a bit warm, but well see how things look at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 56 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: there goes DIT ruining mobile view from his TT snow maps. anyway, thats the extreme outliner for CT now. all other guidance torches. No..that is incorrect. At least for the N part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 26 minutes ago, wx2fish said: That 6z NAM run really floods Rockingham County in the low levels. Given the dynamics I think its a bit warm, but well see how things look at 12z With that track, that amount of low level warmth is certainly conceivable. But as I stated before, the 6z NAM's track contains a bunch of caveats. The NAM has scored a bunch of points so far this season during meso low situations. Recency bias has a lot more people giving the NAM more credence than it should in this situation. The NAM is notorious for over-amping nor'easters and is commonly on the far west side of guidance for this reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 Well, the overnight runs keep smiles on many faces and angst on others. Such is the case with NNE winters. While a hideous run for snow at mi casa in Maine, seeing the "L" of a 959 low sitting on my fanny is something a bit unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No..that is incorrect. At least for the N part of the state. Actually, I think Iceburg is correct on what the other guidance shows (NW CT notwithstanding). But, perhaps the 3k will score a coup and can be promoted from 'experimental' status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said: With that track, that amount of low level warmth is certainly conceivable. But as I stated before, the 6z NAM's track contains a bunch of caveats. The NAM has scored a bunch of points so far this season during meso low situations. Recency bias has a lot more people giving the NAM more credence than it should in this situation. The NAM is notorious for over-amping nor'easters and is commonly on the far west side of guidance for this reason. Certainty a possibility. Such a razor edge in SE NH depending on that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Actually, I think Iceburg is correct on what the other guidance shows (NW CT notwithstanding). But, perhaps the 3k will score a coup and can be promoted from 'experimental' status. Iceburg is totally correct..there were a few runs that looked good but there has been a clear shift away from that for two cycles now Kevin has a shot at a little something with his elevation but generally speaking the rest of us south of the pike will be more concerned with the black ice on the roads and sidewalks come Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 For the bulk of NW Mass, BOX's 'most likely' and "highest potential" maps don't have a whole lot of difference. The 'lowest potential' one would really be funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 yea, extreme nw ct and the obvious peaks NE of HFD can still grab a few inches but everyone else from the border south looks shot on guidance. just the 3k nam stands alone with sagging those bigger accums down both sides of death valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: Iceburg is totally correct..there were a few runs that looked good but there has been a clear shift away from that for two cycles now Kevin has a shot at a little something with his elevation but generally speaking the rest of us south of the pike will be more concerned with the black ice on the roads and sidewalks come Friday morning The RGEM running the low from the North Shore of LI to New London to Foxborough was concerning as it looks to bring rain all the way to 290 or 190 in Mass for a time. We'll see if it still does that with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, wx2fish said: Really amped up. Although by 48hr its not really far off the euro position. Also the 6z rgem is within its later range, BOS-PWM type track too. Definitely a set of ensemble members that do show the potential back here in VT to get clobbered.... also a set of ensemble members that show 3-6" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Not one member of the GEPS or GEFS is as far west as the NAM. The GFS has been steadfast on a track from CC to east of portland. I don't think that's something we should ignore. The NAM is amp happy -- yet again. I think a 50/50 NAM/GFS blend is in order (for track and intensity). Have to weigh the GFS heavily for UL synoptic development, but need the resolution of the NAM to better evaluate mesoscale convective processes. Some on here have been talking about the differences between the hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic models... the GFS has been on the eastern edge of guidance since the get-go. Even the GGEM bombed out earlier and further west than its 12z run. I have no idea which one is right, but the NAM has been jumping around a bit. Its really not far from the EURO solution though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 The warning issued for us has bumped us up to 7"-14". Have not had time to really parse the write up though. Spitting a few flakes as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The RGEM running the low from the North Shore of LI to New London to Foxborough was concerning as it looks to bring rain all the way to 290 or 190 in Mass for a time. We'll see if it still does that with the 12z run. sucks because thats typically a good track back here...but its too warm at the start, fighting it off like a nasty clump of gnats in July. And by the time it wraps up, the cbb collapses to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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