ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 GFS is definitely digging more than the 18z run through 30 hours. Not surprising though since it has been one of the least developed models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GFS is definitely digging more than the 18z run through 30 hours. Not surprising though since it has been one of the least developed models. You beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Any early calls? Most guidance has been pretty steadfast on my hood getting a decent hit. I'm going 7-10" here ORH 6-9". MPMs area 8-10". ASH 4-7". Ray/128 belt 3-6" Dendrite into Eekville 9-13". Southern Maine 10-13" away from the coast Boston area 2-4",. South Shore/Cape nada. TAN 1-3". Northeastern CT 4-6". Northwestern CT 5-7" I'm sure I'm overlapping in some way that makes no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 GFS looks warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Toast down here. Will have to live vicariously through Dendrite for this one. ill take mahhhk webstah location for $500 bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 All out molestation for IZG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is definitely digging more than the 18z run through 30 hours. Not surprising though since it has been one of the least developed models. it can and may dig more, sure ... but I think that sort of correction with that particular model, at this range, wouldn't really be related to deepening rates and track. i may be wrong about this, but ... i believe if we removed the non-hydrostatic forcing from the equation, those NAM/RGEM ...euro etc would probably align with the GFS' previous runs. so in effect ... it is the handling of those special circumstances that's really the total difference - maybe not all but most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 GFS def took a step toward the other guidance...that starts nuking pretty good at 42 hours...still a bit late for most of SNE (N ORH county/Berks do well), but it wouldn't take much to bring some of that dynamic CCB further S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 It's W of 18z by about 15mi and it 4mb stronger at 994mb thru 00z Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: GFS looks warm it always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: All out molestation for IZG Kinda been the sweet spot area over the last day or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Seems like no matter how us folks on the line do in SNE, Sunday River gets 18" every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Kinda been the sweet spot area over the last day or 2. That 6 hr QPF is about as impressive as you'll see. Everything comes together right there. From H5 closing off, to TROWAL and probably a little upslope and blocking flow against the whites and mtns of Maine. Good lord. It's drool worthy for this met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ill take mahhhk webstah location for $500 bob. I'm a few miles wsw from Brian/Dendrite, so he might get 22 while I complain about 21.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 GFS took longer to flood SNE at 925 this run...this is a trend I expect to continue actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That 6 hr QPF is about as impressive as you'll see. Everything comes together right there. From H5 closing off, to TROWAL and probably a little upslope and blocking flow against the whites and mtns of Maine. Good lord. It's drool worthy for this met. Yep. I can't add anything scientific that hasn't already been said. I've never been in on this threat and I feel things are slipping away for areas south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 heh, yet another way to look at it... after whatever this is becomes history... there may not be much to follow for entertainment sake for a long, long, long-long time... so, in the very least it's broken up the madness up for awhile. i think here in my area of NW Middl co i'm looking at 6- 8" in a short duration thump, that ends just as the wind pulse comes in and threatens to make it look like more. Still should be some blowing snow as the top 2 or 3" of snow should dry out and be prone to flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS took longer to flood SNE at 925 this run...this is a trend I expect to continue actually. I get what your saying but the antecedent airmass is rotten by the time the storm gets here. Relying on dynamics is walking a fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Any early calls? Most guidance has been pretty steadfast on my hood getting a decent hit. I'm going 7-10" here ORH 6-9". MPMs area 8-10". ASH 4-7". Ray/128 belt 3-6" Dendrite into Eekville 9-13". Southern Maine 10-13" away from the coast Boston area 2-4",. South Shore/Cape nada. TAN 1-3". Northeastern CT 4-6". Northwestern CT 5-7" I'm sure I'm overlapping in some way that makes no sense I'd put the over/under at ORH at about 5"....I might bump it up depending on the Euro. Not an easy forecast....the thermal profiles I feel the guidance will struggle mightily with in this one...esp once the low gets cranking. The million dollar question is fast it gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I get what your saying but the antecedent airmass is rotten by the time the storm gets here. Relying on dynamics is walking a fine line. I think guidance is being a bit too hasty in eroding the BL...particularly over the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I think guidance is being a bit too hasty in eroding the BL...particularly over the interior. Define interior? If your talking N & W of I-90/I-495 than I'd agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I get what your saying but the antecedent airmass is rotten by the time the storm gets here. Relying on dynamics is walking a fine line. But the interior higher terrain I think is ok, especially north of I-90. They should be west of the low. We can have all the dynamics in the world, but you aren't getting snow if it goes over our fannies. That's why I said even 10 miles means everything. If that wraps up early, the western "wall" if you will has rapid cooling. But if that tracks over near BOS, then that would obviously not be good locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I get what your saying but the antecedent airmass is rotten by the time the storm gets here. Relying on dynamics is walking a fine line. I agree here... the airmass is crap across the board. if the timing is off even a bit on development.... a lot changes. That's the risk when the majority of snow is projected to fall in a relatively short period of time. I feel like there is a lot or reasons to be cautious on big totals south of the favored areas of NH and over to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Define interior? If your talking N & W of I-90/I-495 than I'd agree. About from a Kevin to Ray line. Perhaps even as far SE as N RI...we've seen guidance have this bias of just whisking away a polar airmass at the slightest southerly component of the BL wind. It's usually because the models are not ageostrophic enough with the winds, and the bias is a little worse with denser dry polar airmasses....even if they aren't overly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 As long as you don't have a jackpot fetish, I'd think people like hubbdave and MPM are in a good position as far as SNE members go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I agree here... the airmass is crap across the board. if the timing is off even a bit on development.... a lot changes. That's the risk when the majority of snow is projected to fall in a relatively short period of time. I feel like there is a lot or reasons to be cautious on big totals south of the favored areas of NH and over to Maine Not across all areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Not across all areas. Right... I think the Berks over to far Northern ORH County will do okay. im thinking more like Kevin ray and even places like Worcester itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 See if this develops rapidly, it's going to depend more on low track because the western wall or CCB will flash over. Antecedent airmass be dammed. To me, I see this as low track and intensity dependent....not necessarily the airmass prior. If this low bombs east of FMH even Taunton would flip to paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: As long as you don't have a jackpot fetish, I'd think people like hubbdave and MPM are in a good position as far as SNE members go. Yep, I don't see how places like WaWa over to MPM don't do well unless there is a pretty decent scale shift to the north...it's always possible, but unlikely this close in. ORH to ASH I think I would lean snowier just based on synoptic experience...though each situation individually is different...but the general biases and rules tend to stay the same. For places like SE MA, it's not gonna happen unless we get a real stinger with a Cape track...that is still possible, but you wouldn't base a forecast on that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep, I don't see how places like WaWa over to MPM don't do well unless there is a pretty decent scale shift to the north...it's always possible, but unlikely this close in. ORH to ASH I think I would lean snowier just based on synoptic experience...though each situation individually is different...but the general biases and rules tend to stay the same. For places like SE MA, it's not gonna happen unless we get a real stinger with a Cape track...that is still possible, but you wouldn't base a forecast on that right now. Yeah I just mean from a higher confidence point of view. I feel like ORH probably is in a decent spot for reasons you alluded too also. Part of me just wants to camp out in Dendrite's chicken coop with a 6 pack of double IPAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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