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Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher


moneypitmike

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah but you are even further SW than most and even I'm skeptical of big snows in these set ups.  You have to assume the northeast tick slowly materializes.  It may not be a huge shift in model land but even 40 miles NE makes a big difference in these events in sensible weather. 

I just think being in western NE or NY, getting hopes up for a big time event in a Miller B scenario is risky.  Like I think 3-6" here and it might be long duration...but that's very wintery  still with 3-5" on wet and now frozen snow on the ground.  Freshens things up and looks nice.  Not orgasmic but gets the job done.

Yea, hard to expect more than 3-5" in the Poconos/Catskills with the low not closing off until it's east of Boston. We also lack a negative NAO so this thing is moving along at like warp speed in a very progressive flow. There's an arctic front and additional H5 energy behind it so it can only get so far SW regardless of how potent and dynamic it eventually becomes.

Some of the ECM runs yesterday did have 6-10" in the Catskills, but the 18z GFS and 12z ECM ticked slower and not as intense. That makes sense given the pattern.

N VT w elevation may do well with initial SE flow and then NW flow behind the system. You get some extra snows Friday from a weak arctic FROPA approaching from the Upper Lakes. I could see the Champlain Valley only getting 2-4" with the downsloping and far SE track. Unfortunately this isn't tracking over BOS and stalling near CAR. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah it seemed like Socks was thinking they don't go below 32 at night and that was the reason for lesser amounts east. It's just the winds off that torched North Atlantic Beast until the low bombos 

You don't get much below freezing at night. It's going to be 31-32F in BOS Thursday AM, and then you have SE winds. Not saying it won't snow but it's not a cold airmass by any reasonable standard. Average lows are in the low to mid 20s up there at this point, so a low of 31F is close to +5 to +10.

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nice 22 spot over brian

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016122800/namconus_asnow_neus_20.png

That's well north of me, but those ptype algorithms will struggle with marginal low levels. It's gotta be giving me some non-snow precip considering my qpf and the 10:1 that is spitting out. That has 14" here and I'd take the over on that if this run verified.

It's all downhill from here.

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