nzucker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The antecedent airmass is cold. When the 540 advects actively south of the region, and 850 is down below -2 C, it's cold enough ...particularly, where it matters, off the deck where the mechanics are at work. NWS has a high of 40F in BOS tomorrow and 41F Thursday. That's not a cold airmass by late December standards. It's not so much 850s that are warm, it's the surface and ground. It was 60F today and may not get below freezing prior to the storm...will really need to rip to overcome the initial BL warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Looks like NOAA's storm potential maps are in line with much of the discussion here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 gfs has been slowly moving sw with the better stuff last 8 runs or so while euro has remain steady per say but wrapping earlier getting more west with the better qpf but tightening up its gradient there at the same time. this is why some are confused but when you look at it for your own backyard, thats also why the varying opinions of the "trends" exist. frankly, the overall look is the same but we micro analyze every run compare it to its last and swing along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, nzucker said: Yea it's been trending in the wrong direction for those of us further west. Definitely later deepening and a slower CCB, which makes it harder. Catskills went from 6-10 on yesterday's Euro to 3-5 now. Yeah but you are even further SW than most and even I'm skeptical of big snows in these set ups. You have to assume the northeast tick slowly materializes. It may not be a huge shift in model land but even 40 miles NE makes a big difference in these events in sensible weather. I expect it but at least up here in VT I know we can ride orographics a little bit, especially longer duration light snows on the backside. If you're close enough to the Spine you can cash in on the front side SE flow into the mountains and then if the flow is strong and unblocked (Froude number higher than 1) you cash in on the NW flow once the low passes. I just think being in western NE or NY, getting hopes up for a big time event in a Miller B scenario is risky. Like I think 3-6" here and it might be long duration...but that's very wintery still with 3-5" on wet and now frozen snow on the ground. Freshens things up and looks nice. Not orgasmic but gets the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, nzucker said: NWS has a high of 40F in BOS tomorrow and 41F Thursday. That's not a cold airmass by late December standards. It's not so much 850s that are warm, it's the surface and ground. It was 60F today and may not get below freezing prior to the storm...will really need to rip to overcome the initial BL warmth. Who won't get below freezing? Westchester where you live might not.. but BOS forecast low is 30 tonight and 27 tomorrow night. Thsts got nothing to do with what happens in BOS. It's the torched SST's warming the lowest few thousand feet until the flow turns north and they flip to S+ for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 38 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: There really isn't much more to say until the 0z runs start rolling. Also if the 0z GFS doesn't budge I would certainly not completely discount it yet. I honestly won't be confident about outcomes in SNE/CNE until after tomorrow's 12z runs. Welcome to...the dead zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 10 hours ago, mreaves said: What are you talking about? We are bopping along around or slightly below average. While it is true that there are pockets that are above but there have been several posts by JSpin, maybe the most diligent precip measurer we have, pointing this out. Yeah, I saw the comment and thought about responding, so thanks for getting in the clarification. This is at least peripherally related to this thread/storm because our area essentially requires something along the lines of the higher end of the forecast just to catch up to average snowfall. There’s no doubt that Mansfield has had a great start to the season as we’ve heard from PF’s reports, but I wouldn’t take that to mean that NNE in general is running above average. Right now at our site we’re below average with respect to snowpack, December snowfall, and season snowfall. We’ve had 26.1” of snow for December so far, but if we’re talking an “NNE winter” type of start, that’s 50” to 70” of December snow here. Realistically, that’s not even on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro and 18z GFS both print out roughly 1.5" qpf here, Euro is 14" of snow, And GFS is 3"....................... I'm under a WSW, and my NWS point forecast gives me mostly heavy rain with maybe a couple inches of slush. Life on the coastal plain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, PWMan said: I'm under a WSW, and my NWS point forecast gives me mostly heavy rain with maybe a couple inches of slush. Life on the coastal plain.... A tic or two east with the SLP would change those totals considerably there as well as here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who won't get below freezing? Westchester where you live might not.. but BOS forecast low is 30 tonight and 27 tomorrow night. Thsts got nothing to do with what happens in BOS. It's the torched SST's warming the lowest few thousand feet until the flow turns north and they flip to S+ for a few hours It depends on your perspective. The high retreats and that combined with the parent low brings winds to the SE. Temps even in NH and ME barely get below 30 as it starts. It's not a good airmass, but works inland as they slowly wet bulb to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It depends on your perspective. The high retreats and that combined with the parent low brings winds to the SE. Temps even in NH and ME barely get below 30 as it starts. It's not a good airmass, but works inland as they slowly wet bulb to 32. Yeah it seemed like Socks was thinking they don't go below 32 at night and that was the reason for lesser amounts east. It's just the winds off that torched North Atlantic Beast until the low bombos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It depends on your perspective. The high retreats and that combined with the parent low brings winds to the SE. Temps even in NH and ME barely get below 30 as it starts. It's not a good airmass, but works inland as they slowly wet bulb to 32. So Scott, a few ticks to the east, rain line moves as well? Is a fair to say in my home city, when storm starts, will it make its own cold?, or not enough coming behind? lol just don't want to get dropped down in accumulation (current local tv 5-10") some show 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, 512high said: So Scott, a few ticks to the east, rain line moves as well? Is a fair to say in my home city, when storm starts, will it make its own cold?, or not enough coming behind? lol just don't want to get dropped down in accumulation (current local tv 5-10") some show 2-4 when the soldiers at the frontline move east, the tanks follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: You're range is larger than mine. I'm going for 4-12" here at the Pit. my first call was 4" fmby, and I'm sticking to it..too many variables that have to play just right for ths 6-12 ALY is calling for here. If we can get some good meso banding and forcing in the right spot, western areas could see a good dump, I think the andecedent air mass is a bit warm and would need some solid rates to overcome the BL temps, sound about right? seriously, I'm looking for corrections or do I got it pretty much covered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 hours ago, CT Rain said: I've been out of the loop and just starting to catch up on things. As Will said the GFS is definitely the outlier but I wouldn't totally toss it. The Euro seems the get overly amped with these things so I think a 75% Euro/25% GFS blend is a good starting point right now. Definitely a nod to the Euro/EPS. There aren't really any crazy SREF members here - and some really good clustering <6" for BDL. Also the EPS keep the 6" mean snowfall north of CT/MA line and the probability of 6"+ for BDL is pretty low off the EPS - maybe like 20 percent or so. I do think that latitude helps quite a bit with this - particularly here in CT. With the upper level low cutting off mainly north of us it may hurt areas south of the Pike. My forecast would be really close to what BOX just put out - I think that looks good right now here in CT. I was thinking 75/25 Euro comp, too....980s over se MA is what I speculated on the blog. Plowable likely outside I 495...possibly outside 128...espesially n of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 21 minutes ago, 512high said: So Scott, a few ticks to the east, rain line moves as well? Is a fair to say in my home city, when storm starts, will it make its own cold?, or not enough coming behind? lol just don't want to get dropped down in accumulation (current local tv 5-10") some show 2-4 It'll all depend on how fast it develops. If it's east but slower to develop like the gfs it will be more of a struggle, although I do think the gfs is too warm in the low levels. A heavy euro/gfs blend would be pretty good for you and me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 so if there was a better block, this thing could blow up off the delmarva and bury everyone? is the forward speed the actual reason it doesn't get going until it is on top of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Nam looks like it is trending back deeper through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 NAM thru 31 on TT looks better than it did at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 0z Nam should be better then the 18z run, Low looks to get going sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nam looks like it is trending back deeper through 36. yeah already already 994 S. LI @ 45hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 yup, living in the 90s. euro/nam vs gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Congrats Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: yeah already already 994 S. LI @ 45hr 984MB just north of the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 989 around block island, much further NW than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Still not as soon as 12z...but it goes wild over central and NE MA at 51 hours....and will prob be ridiculous for parts of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Congrats Berks Congrats you.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 984MB just north of the cape you must be on the faster internet.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 971mb just east of PWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, J.Spin said: We’ve had 26.1” of snow for December so far, but if we’re talking an “NNE winter” type of start, that’s 50” to 70” of December snow here. Realistically, that’s not even on the table at this point. 60 miles east and 2000 feet higher, Washington is at 68" and has an outside shot of 100 given this storm (normal is 45). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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