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Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher


moneypitmike

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah true, already crushed the medium range guidance.

Like the runs have been so consistent I was getting confused at which run I was looking at toggling through them.  Ha, had to double check that it was today's 12/27 12z run at first too.

yea true. Just concerned with euros qpf distribution. Seems like that is an area it can struggle with, maybe my memory is jaded with recent big system busts but its an area im not that confident in. 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So the 4KM NAM goes from 982-969 in 3 hrs and nails NE MA lol.

Check the 3km para NAM....lol.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016122718&fh=58&xpos=0&ypos=226

 

Some of these are such weenie models. That one gives an epic CCB stinger even into BOS at the end.

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53 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Hey,  advice for everyone during the next 36 hours.  Read more and post.   Unless you are a Met with really good input then post away.  For every 10 posts there is one good meaningful one so good info gets buried fast in big weather situations like this.  Okay, that's my rant for today...

Bring it on....

Meh

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Check the 3km para NAM....lol.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016122718&fh=58&xpos=0&ypos=226

 

Some of these are such weenie models. That one gives an epic CCB stinger even into BOS at the end.

Was just looking at that. Pretty classic sim IR look.

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Just now, bobbutts said:

Very bullish from GYX

 

Yeah I'm a little surprised they are that bullish more than 48h out...I mean, I can totally see those numbers verifying, but if this thing pops just a little late, then a lot of those could be significantly too high as well.

 

That said, they label it as "most likely"...and the sooner pop of the low is probably "most likely"...so in that sense, I can't really fault the graph. But it could create some confusion if that is taken as a face value forecast.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm a little surprised they are that bullish more than 48h out...I mean, I can totally see those numbers verifying, but if this thing pops just a little late, then a lot of those could be significantly too high as well.

 

That said, they label it as "most likely"...and the sooner pop of the low is probably "most likely"...so in that sense, I can't really fault the graph. But it could create some confusion if that is taken as a face value forecast.

Looks like they gave themselves some wiggle room

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
327 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

...STRONG COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY
NIGHT WHILE EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND A WINTRY MIX AS WELL AS SOME HEAVY
SNOW ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WINDS
WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND
POTENTIALLY WET SNOW MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. THE SNOW WILL COME
TO AN END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THE EXACT STORM TRACK IS NOT YET KNOWN. A MORE WESTERLY
LOW PRESSURE TRACK WOULD MEAN MORE RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
FURTHER INLAND. A MORE EASTERLY TRACK WOULD MEAN HEAVIER SNOWS FOR
THE COAST.
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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Check the 3km para NAM....lol.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016122718&fh=58&xpos=0&ypos=226

 

Some of these are such weenie models. That one gives an epic CCB stinger even into BOS at the end.

Dear god lol. Ideally I'd love 3-4" to end out December and head into January in good shape.  We'll see. I'm not expecting too much here. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm a little surprised they are that bullish more than 48h out...I mean, I can totally see those numbers verifying, but if this thing pops just a little late, then a lot of those could be significantly too high as well.

 

That said, they label it as "most likely"...and the sooner pop of the low is probably "most likely"...so in that sense, I can't really fault the graph. But it could create some confusion if that is taken as a face value forecast.

 

Those map products are also labeled as 'experimental' so test away.

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