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Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, nzucker said:

Eh I actually think it is a bit of east of where it was.

Here is yesterday's Euro snowmap:

Screenshot_2016-12-27-01-55-55.png

On yesterday's run, the 6" line was well west of the Hudson River, even as far west as Delaware County. Today's 12z has the 6" line near the NY/Mass border, not even extending to the Taconic Pkway. You still do well, but one more tick east and what happened to Delaware County happens to you: snowfall totals drop from 6-12 to more of a 3-6 event.

 

nzucker, wasnt comparing yesterday and todays euro snow maps on my thoughts this has come west. if you recall the past several days the general theme has been to develop this faster which brings more peeps in the west zones out of the clubhouse and into the dugout. what was once a ENH and maine special has made peeps in VT and most of MA begin to pace more. 

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted

Oh I know, the Microburst of 2005 was one helluva experience my family will never forget, unfortunately I wasn't home when that happened, I was going to Bishop Stang High School in No. Dartmouth, MA in SE MA at the time in my junior year, and we were on the bus heading home and the weather went from rain to sleet mix, to rain and snow to a full out blizzard all in about 10 miles of distance and once we hit the Bridge to Sandwich we were in a full on blizzard where the winds already swept through the region and Harwich suffered a ton of tree damage and power outages.  Trees were lying on the roads, closing them and in parts had to drive around them.  We had about .5" of snow on the ground from the storm.  However, Orleans, and Brewster as well as Eastham at least 100mph winds, some reports of tornado damage possibly but they confirmed it was straight line wind damage of 129mph winds reported.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

Hey,  advice for everyone during the next 36 hours.  Read more and post.   Unless you are a Met with really good input then post away.  For every 10 posts there is one good meaningful one so good info gets buried fast in big weather situations like this.  Okay, that's my rant for today...

Bring it on....

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The big uncertainty zone definitely seems to be that 128 belt down to N RI and to NE CT....that's an area that could have a massive bust in the positive direction. One of those things where you aren't sure whether to forecast 2-4" or 6-10"....and it's even plausible they end up with 12". Still plenty of time to figure it out, but that is the area that really sucks to forecast for right now.

I'll take those Euro amounts in a heartbeat.  Unfortunately, I think I'm going to be in Maine for a funeral.

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Looks like i still have 4-5" left

4" left here.  What a horrific torch coming back from Maine.  Through NE Mass, the car actually read 58*.  It was nice to come home to a less horrific 41* here.

30 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Question will be.  Winter Storm Watch for NH or Blizzard Watch.  What do you guys think?

Not sure it really matters, but I'd think a WSW is all that's needed.  The latter could always be added later on.  No need to now though.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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Posted
5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Hey,  advice for everyone during the next 36 hours.  Read more and post.   Unless you are a Met with really good input then post away.  For every 10 posts there is one good meaningful one so good info gets buried fast in big weather situations like this.  Okay, that's my rant for today...

Bring it on....

Screw that!

j/k.  :)

38.3

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

Tough call my neck of the woods as we're on the western edge of the big QPF, but I like my odds of at least a moderate snowstorm. I feel better about the east slope area getting a more significant snow. Precipitation type shouldn't be a problem out here. The CT River Valley precip type looks okay once north of about the Northampton area, but ratios could be an issue early on as the BL looks a bit warm below 500'. However, once the snow gets cranking things should cool down.

For PSF I'd place snowfall odds at: 4" >80%, 6" 60%, 8" 45%, 10" 30%, >12" 20%.

AQW and DDH look pretty similar. 

Probability drops quickly out toward ALB: 4" 50%, 6" 35%, 8" 25%, 10" 10%, >12" <5%. 

Things should begin to clear up a little more tomorrow as the models often have a hard time discerning details with these Miller B bombs until the last minute.

I'd also watch the potential for a bit of west slope upslope on the backside Friday morning, which could add a little more.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I feel OK for this area getting 6-8" but I would not be as confident W of Greenfield towards the N Berks.  That low is looking pretty compacted with the SN+ swath. 

The EURO Ensembles brought your area to my area about 0.9" QPF as snow.  It would certainly be serviceable.

Those ensembles brought the jackpot zone to most of central/northern NH, northeastern VT, Maine foothills and mountains.  Pretty much held serve from what I've seen on the last three runs.

6" ensemble snow line runs PWM-ORH-N.Litchfield County.  2" from BOS-Foster,RI-HFD area.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Euro Ensemble mean appears to go over the Cape Cod Canal or somewhere in there.

Hour 60 is south of RI and Hour 66 is just SE of PWM.  Pretty good clustering with not a ton of spread...just enough spread to have huge sensible differences though to those out west and those on the coast.

Yeah that seems to be the track. Will be a good storm for the interior. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, powderfreak said:

I will say the Euro and its ensembles have been extremely consistent for the past like 4 runs.  This is the Euro's storm to win or lose.  Looking over the recent runs I've pretty impressed with how steady as she goes it has been.

It has already won in the medium range...it was the only model that had something pretty significant around D5 and now all other guidance has caved towards it by a lot...just a question now if it wins in the short term....whether we get that massive bombogenesis or if things take a little longer to get going like the global models show (and sort of like the 18z NAM which decided to wait a bit on this run)

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It has already won in the medium range...it was the only model that had something pretty significant around D5 and now all other guidance has caved towards it by a lot...just a question now if it wins in the short term....whether we get that massive bombogenesis or if things take a little longer to get going like the global models show (and sort of like the 18z NAM which decided to wait a bit on this run)

Yeah true, already crushed the medium range guidance.

Like the runs have been so consistent I was getting confused at which run I was looking at toggling through them.  Ha, had to double check that it was today's 12/27 12z run at first too.

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