Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Def better Euro run for CT..mostly snow ..That would leave some homes without decks in much of SNE as they wake up Fri AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 That 0z Euro run looked a tic or two west of 12z's runDon't we want eastward shift to avoid taint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 4 hours ago, dryslot said: We saved this one, GYX all in. It looks like they have Brunswick at 8-12 and Wiscasset at 12-18". If I split the difference, that has me at about a foot in Bath. That would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 Here's a dumb question........am I correct in assuming the best winds from this will be some distance to the west of the center as it passes? Also, if this winds up really tightly as it's showing, what are the implications for the extent of the dryslot? I'm guessing it will be pretty pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 hour ago, wx2fish said: Euro looked a hair colder from the sfc-925. Probably would be a little better than 12z along 495 Yeah I thought it was a bit better than 12z for those right on the line. Looked a little colder. Ensembles were a bit east of the OP...maybe the tick east on the 06z nam has merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I thought it was a bit better than 12z for those right on the line. Looked a little colder. Ensembles were a bit east of the OP...maybe the tick east on the 06z nam has merit. It's a bummer that it's trucking along, but beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 50 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Don't we want eastward shift to avoid taint? Yes, We don't need any more tics west, Having the EPS a tic east is good right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I need a full 50 mile tick east right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Yes, We don't need any more tics west, Having the EPS a tic east is good right now I think the euro op is probably a bit too west. I'd put my jack bet somewhere in that north of DAW-IZG-RUM-LEW corridor. These more progressive systems usually are a hair too late this far west for the jackpots. Of course I'd love for the euro to be right, but something like the NAM solution seems more plausible to me. These things always love to throw last minute curveballs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, it was slightly worse. I don't expect much.....I think it may nudge east; however it will also come with the cost of less impressive cyclogenesis. One of those obnoxious scenarios where the coast will see 100,000,001 ways to not snow portrayed amongst modeling in the coming days. Wait for January...this ain't it- That happens quite a bit as we get closer sometimes, I don't think right now this could go much lower on the pressure, So it will either hold or increase some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think the euro op is probably a bit too west. I'd put my jack bet somewhere in that north of DAW-IZG-RUM-LEW corridor. These more progressive systems usually are a hair too late this far west for the jackpots. Of course I'd love for the euro to be right, but something like the NAM solution seems more plausible to me. These things always love to throw last minute curveballs though. We have seen last minute changes on many occasions, I don't expect what we are seeing now to be the final outcome, Like you said, That highest qpf field is going to move around some depending on intensity and final track, So we just continue to watch the upcoming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: That happens quite a bit as we get closer sometimes, I don't think right now this could go much lower on the pressure, So it will either hold or increase some. Good am, Jeff is this going to be a quick mover with heavy banding, or a long duration storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 7 minutes ago, 512high said: Good am, Jeff is this going to be a quick mover with heavy banding, or a long duration storm?? It's trucking along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 NAM soundings are super impressive. Wicked lift in the DGZ as it passes and definitely a TSSN look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 7 minutes ago, 512high said: Good am, Jeff is this going to be a quick mover with heavy banding, or a long duration storm?? Its going to be big short duration thump for some of the area, The storm is moving right along, 9-12 hr duration it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 a tic colder and I could have a really wild event here in dv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: It's trucking along. ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 With the rapid intensification, Would not be surprised to see a few flashes and rumbles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 With a little block in the right place this coulda been a contendah. Someone along the boundary (Ray?) might get a nice surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM soundings are super impressive. Wicked lift in the DGZ as it passes and definitely a TSSN look. 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: With the rapid intensification, Would not be surprised to see a few flashes and rumbles One last thing and I will stop being a pain in the A**, paste? fluff factor?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, 512high said: One last thing and I will stop being a pain in the A**, paste? fluff factor?? Paste for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 5 minutes ago, 512high said: One last thing and I will stop being a pain in the A**, paste? fluff factor?? Probably wet. Maybe the last 1-2" as drier snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 31 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think the euro op is probably a bit too west. I'd put my jack bet somewhere in that north of DAW-IZG-RUM-LEW corridor. These more progressive systems usually are a hair too late this far west for the jackpots. Of course I'd love for the euro to be right, but something like the NAM solution seems more plausible to me. These things always love to throw last minute curveballs though. Yeah that's my feeling as well. Seems like 8 out of 10 times it's further NE than models expect when it really goes to town...and maybe 2 out of 10 it actually bombs faster and more tucked up/in. I'm still leaning a bit more progressive than the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 6z nam more realistic than the 0z run, matches quite well with euro. this has orh on ne written all over it. you also need to get under the deform axis even in the sweet areas to reach the big amounts, thing will zip along and super compact. dynamic nevertheless, esp nw of 95 in maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Paste for the most part 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Probably wet. Maybe the last 1-2" as drier snow there. thank you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I happen to think NW CT to NE CT/ NW Ri north to ORH on north are all going to do very well. EPS and Euro so consistent for 9-10 runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I forgot which NESIS storm it was, but it was a storm back in the 1960s that dumped 30"+ on ME and NH, that storm would be a perfect analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I forgot which NESIS storm it was, but it was a storm back in the 1960s that dumped 30"+ on ME and NH, that storm would be a perfect analog. this is moving way too fast for anyone to get 30 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I was talking more so about the jackpot zone and the track and super intensity of the low pressure center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I happen to think NW CT to NE CT/ NW Ri north to ORH on north are all going to do very well. EPS and Euro so consistent for 9-10 runs in a row sure, from the inital surge but when it starts wrapping up its aiming for points ne with the ccb. like nw of 84 plows thur evening and e ct nw ri can play a little with backside deform overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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