ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: James just fainted. Super bomb (like 14 mb in 6 hours) with almost the same exact track. Lol. What a weenie model that is sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 210 meter height falls in 6 hrs. That's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Super bomb (like 14 mb in 6 hours) with almost the same exact track. Lol. What a weenie model that is sometimes. It definitely has rapid intensification potential given those dynamics and warm waters offshore of the islands. But let's see what the big boy models do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Well there's James sniffing ozone with winds to 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 A few inches in central Maine are from tonight/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 The NAM is really close to a condo collapser here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 You can almost smell ozone on the last few panels of the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 I'm hoping for ratios to compensate for lower qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It definitely has rapid intensification potential given those dynamics and warm waters offshore of the islands. But let's see what the big boy models do. Yeah. The fact the euro hints at it anyway has me interested. There's definitely some room for 6 hours of crazy if it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Wankum has a map out LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm hoping for ratios to compensate for lower qpf. We've got another day of model runs before locking bulls-eyes into place. I'd take 6-8" of fluffier over 8-10+" of paste since we already have the base. Let ORH Co east have the higher qpf if we can lock a few degrees colder and get a powder bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Wankum has a map out LOL He's such a dink with those. Totally unnecessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I will print that run and cuddle with it tonight if true but expectations always in check with these...just not buying warning snows back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: We've got another day of model runs before locking bulls-eyes into place. I'd take 6-8" of fluffier over 8-10+" of paste since we already have the base. Let ORH Co east have the higher qpf if we can lock a few degrees colder and get a powder bomb. I prefer the 7-10:1 paste to increase the base for reasons some don't understand................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Track and intensity looking good on the Nam. Shave some Qpf off and you guys still get nailed. Looking like the first biggie of the season down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 that NAM solution is really bombogen - though unusual for it's tightness of scale. the problem is there's unusually intense hydrostatic exertion because ... heh, as much as I've been complaining about the gradient, the surplus is actually causing a freakshow UVM max there. 120+ kt jet max is rather extreme for 500 mbs. fascinating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Pretty progressive. If it wasn't such a quick mover it would really maul someone. Still might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: I prefer the 7-10:1 paste to increase the base for reasons some don't understand................. Preach it brotha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, mreaves said: Preach it brotha! I like to ride over the top of rocks and stumps instead of being hidden........................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 euro and nam identical with sfc low position and strength over maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 interesting track, just a bit east would be better.. 974mb east of marblehead ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: interesting track, just a bit east would be better.. 974mb east of marblehead ... You'd still get crushed on that evolution. But yeah, optimal for you would be about 20-25 miles east. We will see what euro says later. I'm actually not as interested in gfs this storm since it is probably the type of storm the gfs would struggle the most with. It's possible this could be a "non-hydrostatic model special"...though let's wait another cycle before getting too caught up in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 not caring about details like sfc low placement at d3 but found it interesting nam isnt completely on crack....just gets going sooner, we can work with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: I prefer the 7-10:1 paste to increase the base for reasons some don't understand................. Oh' I totally understand, I just don't like clearing it. 6-10" fluff = 1 hour clearing, 6-10" paste = 2+ hours clearing. Clip on the downhill sticks and 6" powder is way more fun than 6" paste. Friday will be a Berkshire East Day me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Guess who's in town starting Thursday morning!? ☺ Man this would be fun...Great to be reading ORH and all my other favorites once again for a storm that I can actually live and breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 11 minutes ago, Hazey said: Pretty progressive. If it wasn't such a quick mover it would really maul someone. Still might. This young season has been fast track upper dynamics so I think expectations should be in check. Isolated lollis aside, I doubt forecast areas outside of Maine breaks 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You'd still get crushed on that evolution. But yeah, optimal for you would be about 20-25 miles east. We will see what euro says later. I'm actually not as interested in gfs this storm since it is probably the type of storm the gfs would struggle the most with. It's possible this could be a "non-hydrostatic model special"...though let's wait another cycle before getting too caught up in that. haha funny you mentioned that ...i was just commenting on that look. wow ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 The nam soundings have lots of elevated CaPE lol. I know it's early to look, but I was curious. What a dynamic bomb on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 18 minutes ago, Hazey said: Pretty progressive. If it wasn't such a quick mover it would really maul someone. Still might. you could end up raining there with that tongue of warmth ripping up east of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 This ain't the Nam from years gone by. It finally found a pattern it can work with. Still a bit too qpf happy. Something's never change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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