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Central PA - February 2017

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted

The 12z GFS & 12z Canadian bring out next weekend's system in waves. With the first wave next Saturday, the GFS has 3-5 inches of snow for most of CTP & the Canadian has a little less & also most of it toward the LSV. Then, the strong highs push east & weaken, allowing the boundary to shift north for the next wave Sunday into Monday, which would probably be ice changing to rain.

The timing will mean everything. It would help to have the system consolidate, while coming out more quickly, while the strong high is in the best location for us, in order to produce the best chance of snow for CTP.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Lol, moderate to heavy snow in central PA with a wave attacking a 1044mb high over the top... with the 570 dm height line going through PA. GFS also has this high pegged at 1052mb in prior frames. Gonna be an interesting week of watching how this evolves.

gfs---conus-162-A-mslpthkpcp_white.pnggfs-hgt--namerica-162-A-500hgtanom.png

 

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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Posted
10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Lol, moderate to heavy snow in central PA with a wave attacking a 1044mb high over the top... with the 570 dm height line going through PA. GFS also has this high pegged at 1052mb in prior frames. Gonna be an interesting week of watching how this evolves.

gfs---conus-162-A-mslpthkpcp_white.pnggfs-hgt--namerica-162-A-500hgtanom.png

 

Quite the pattern MAG. It's one I haven't really seen for a very long time. I know the Mid January 99 analog is showing up and that was a nasty ice storm. I think with that kind of setup, the cold at the surface will trend colder, but the thermals upstairs will be torching. 570dm in mid January is cruel, but when you have 1050+ high moving over the top, cold wedge can be prolific, even with that kind of ridging in the east. I'd be watching very closely if I was anyone within this subforum. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Quite the pattern MAG. It's one I haven't really seen for a very long time. I know the Mid January 99 analog is showing up and that was a nasty ice storm. I think with that kind of setup, the cold at the surface will trend colder, but the thermals upstairs will be torching. 570dm in mid January is cruel, but when you have 1050+ high moving over the top, cold wedge can be prolific, even with that kind of ridging in the east. I'd be watching very closely if I was anyone within this subforum. 

ice ice baby.....

 

BOOOOO!!

 

 

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clarks green snow

clarks green snow

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Need to move to Mt. Shasta, CA:blink:
 
Today
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 24 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 95 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -22. Windy, with a southwest wind 75 to 80 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Monday
Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 12. Wind chill values as low as -27. Windy, with a southwest wind 60 to 65 mph, with gusts as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.
Monday Night
Snow showers before 10pm, then snow after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -21. Windy, with a west southwest wind 80 to 90 mph decreasing to 70 to 80 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 17 to 23 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 19. Windy, with a southwest wind around 60 mph, with gusts as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 24 to 30 inches possible.
Tuesday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 12. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow. High near 12. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

 

 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Quite the pattern MAG. It's one I haven't really seen for a very long time. I know the Mid January 99 analog is showing up and that was a nasty ice storm. I think with that kind of setup, the cold at the surface will trend colder, but the thermals upstairs will be torching. 570dm in mid January is cruel, but when you have 1050+ high moving over the top, cold wedge can be prolific, even with that kind of ridging in the east. I'd be watching very closely if I was anyone within this subforum. 

Yea snow would be lovely, but I def am somewhat more concerned of the ice storm potential of this setup.. with the multiple waves running the boundary and strong areas of high pressure to the north. 850mb level and maybe even higher than that could be susceptible to warming above freezing even with a very strong surface high.. which could imply more of a sleet potential than usual... especially if the attacking low pressure wave tries to run west of PA. 12z Euro looked decidedly more icy than the GFS, much warmer at 850 and even 925 with the first wave but easily below freezing at the surface in most of PA. It also looked icy with it's second wave. At any rate, too early for details.

98-99 definitely had it's share of ice. It's a winter I remember having a storm that literally dumped several inches of sleet here. Looking at Ray's winter storm archive I believe it was the mid Jan one your referencing as an analog. That winter also had a wild first half of March in the snow department. 

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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29 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

yeah...he's a "neat" kinda guy....

I may join him if this craptastic pattern doesnt break down in the next few weeks.

 

Nut

I never had a meeting with Johnny before, but I used to be good friends with Jack and Jim back at college. Got through those cold nights in the winter and after Met exams. Tonight might be a good night to have a glass. Going to be bone chilling by the morning. 

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Not sure what nws sees, but it seems they usually side with mostly snow until observations from storm come in otherwise (Also makes it easier to slap on generic wwa ). Still think someone gets iced up pretty good.

Are you referring to Tuesday? Looks like snow to sleet/freezing rain with the warm air advection-driven precipitation.

Beyond that, we get quite mild for Thursday and Friday as a surface wave tracks over the eastern Great Lakes. The baroclinic zone associated with that system slowly works its way into our region, allowing for potentially more frozen precipitation as another wave develops along that boundary.

Thanks to a shift in the position of the east-Asian jet, much of the CONUS gets flooded with Pacific air in the long range, which should lead to generally milder conditions over the eastern US.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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30 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Guess we will see. Low level cold is always under modeled around IPT to AVP. And a quarter inch of ice causes absolute havoc if it falls at the wrong time.

Its undermodelled all the way down into the LSV as well.  Im just not sure ice will be a big problem.  No big bigh pressure up north for CAD, just antecedent airmass thats on the way out.  To me its just a "run of the mill" snow to slop event.  Precip shield shows .5-.75 through much of NW to central/NC PA.  WAA push looks to be pretty stong, but not till 18z (at which as per NAM, most precip is gone).  I hope they typcial CAA caveats apply though.  I want to hold onto what ever we can as long as we can.  

 

And as i type this, the 12Z comes in showing a little more snow/ice prior to WAA. 

Nut

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
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There's been some discussion in the mid-atlantic subforum about the Superstorm of '93...for those of us that were here during that storm, what memories do you have?

I have a few:

  • It was modeled better than any big storm I ever remember to this day. A week out and it was a certainty that the east coast was going to be severely impacted.
  • Snow began in Lanco late evening on the 12th
  • I woke up Saturday morning to 10" and 40mph winds
  • I was a Philadelphia Flyers season ticket holder at the time. I decided against going to that afternoon's game, then watched on PRISM as the wind blew the windows out of the Spectrum forcing the game to be postponed
  • I had hours of sleet during the late morning and mid day hours before going back over to snow
  • I ended up with about 17" of snow with a few inches of ice in the middle. 
  • I had snow cover in mid March for a week (my snow pack lasted longer than my 30" did last January)
  • It was, and is, the greatest weather event of my lifetime.
  • The Weather Channel was awesome back then. 7 days of wire to wire coverage leading up to it and through it. 
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Rickg2

Rickg2

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28 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

There's been some discussion in the mid-atlantic subforum about the Superstorm of '93...for those of us that were here during that storm, what memories do you have?

I have a few:

  • It was modeled better than any big storm I ever remember to this day. A week out and it was a certainty that the east coast was going to be severely impacted.
  • Snow began in Lanco late evening on the 12th
  • I woke up Saturday morning to 10" and 40mph winds
  • I was a Philadelphia Flyers season ticket holder at the time. I decided against going to that afternoon's game, then watched on PRISM as the wind blew the windows out of the Spectrum forcing the game to be postponed
  • I had hours of sleet during the late morning and mid day hours before going back over to snow
  • I ended up with about 17" of snow with a few inches of ice in the middle. 
  • I had snow cover in mid March for a week (my snow pack lasted longer than my 30" did last January)
  • It was, and is, the greatest weather event of my lifetime.
  • The Weather Channel was awesome back then. 7 days of wire to wire coverage leading up to it and through it. 

I remember this one... I had my kids for the weekend, Saturday morning it had started snowing and I had to run to the store. It was about an inch then. The store was about to close.  Got home and every two hours I cleaned a path to the car.  That was a waste because two hour later the path I cleared was gone. you couldn't tell were the path was. The next day the snow was even with my deck (30 inches). I had to go to work only to find that work had closed. We closed for three days after that storm.  I told the kids that we could fry up the cat if we really got hungry. They were 12 and 9 at the time. we also had a 3 month old.

First time I saw the roads closed. I live near a highway and the plow trucks were running constantly to keep it clear. It was a main road to the hospitals. 


we are due for another major storm.

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Santa Clause

Santa Clause

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Its undermodelled all the way down into the LSV as well.  Im just not sure ice will be a big problem.  No big bigh pressure up north for CAD, just antecedent airmass thats on the way out.  To me its just a "run of the mill" snow to slop event.  Precip shield shows .5-.75 through much of NW to central/NC PA.  WAA push looks to be pretty stong, but not till 18z (at which as per NAM, most precip is gone).  I hope they typcial CAA caveats apply though.  I want to hold onto what ever we can as long as we can.  

 

And as i type this, the 12Z comes in showing a little more snow/ice prior to WAA. 

Nut

Lol that's 99 percent of our storms up here, so maybe we are coming at it from different viewpoints. Typically MDT and JST jump above freezing far before IPT, AVP and points northeast. It's our only specialty.

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted

CTP just issued WWAs for a huge chunk of the state. Here's the text for Harrisburg proper:

  

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY.


* HAZARD TYPES...MIXED SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME AREAS WILL
  SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF
  INTERSTATE 80...AND LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW SOUTH OF
  INTERSTATE 80.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND
  FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

* TIMING...A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ARRIVE EARLY TO MID
  MORNING...CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD
  CONDITIONS.
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