WEATHERBUFF Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 7 hours ago, pasnownut said: Lol. That was the best 12 hours of my winter Nut Euro is so consistent since it's upgrade it has been awful outside of a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 5 hours ago, pasnownut said: Well get shopping cause the king just caved.... truth told I really am just scratching my head at the consistent good looks that go poof and never make it into the medium range. Just stunning really. Nut Euro is king of BS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Euro is king of BS! Remember when the Euro was King? btw, the kiddies have started a go fund me to support their weather site. they have beta app out there. I wish I would have thought of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 14 hours ago, pasnownut said: Well get shopping cause the king just caved.... truth told I really am just scratching my head at the consistent good looks that go poof and never make it into the medium range. Just stunning really. Nut If we would get every storm the EURO showed us getting in the long range (and even up almost to game time on occasion) we'd have snow like the do out in Tahoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, Voyager said: If we would get every storm the EURO showed us getting in the long range (and even up almost to game time on occasion) we'd have snow like the do out in Tahoe. True that! And it appears as if overnight runs try and bring something back to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 38 minutes ago, Voyager said: If we would get every storm the EURO showed us getting in the long range (and even up almost to game time on occasion) we'd have snow like the do out in Tahoe. agreed. it has been quite the tease this year. I think the GFS since upgrades has done better, but this pattern has put them all out to pasture (speaking long term btw). Saw that Maytown. Couple more runs and the GFS might have 40 north into the goods. right now northern tier is getting some play time but still largely on the bench. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 9 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Euro is so consistent since it's upgrade it has been awful outside of a few days. Agreed. Its lost the jewels in its crown. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 The GEFS & EPS have been ramping up snow amounts with each run over the last 2 days. There are a few threat windows over the next 2 weeks that will be heavily influenced by where the block ultimately sets up. The 6z GEFS has around 6-8 inches of snow in the LSV by the end of its run & the EPS shows 4-5 inches over the same period. You can add a few inches to these amounts for those to the north of I-80 & near I-99. There are several individual ensemble members that have heavy hitting snow solutions, but the vast majority give at least a few inches of snow region wide by the end of their runs. Will this finally be the window where we cash in on some meaningful snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: agreed. it has been quite the tease this year. I think the GFS since upgrades has done better, but this pattern has put them all out to pasture (speaking long term btw). Saw that Maytown. Couple more runs and the GFS might have 40 north into the goods. right now northern tier is getting some play time but still largely on the bench. Nut Neither the GFS or the Euro has really stood out this winter, especially in the mid-range. I don't think either did too bad with the storm threats we did have in the short range. That 6-10 day range is where they have just been all over the place pretty often this winter. It's a range obviously where you take finer details with a grain of salt, but big picture stuff is usually something you can build a general idea and have some kind of agreement. Either way, the winter pattern itself has had some pretty notable consistency.. which hasn't worked in our favor much at all. We have had brief windows of opportunity, but the pattern has reverted back to the active/supressed Pac jet and higher heights in the east. The next couple weeks look pretty changeable with cold air available up north. I'd still watch for at least one more threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Neither the GFS or the Euro has really stood out this winter, especially in the mid-range. I don't think either did too bad with the storm threats we did have in the short range. That 6-10 day range is where they have just been all over the place pretty often this winter. It's a range obviously where you take finer details with a grain of salt, but big picture stuff is usually something you can build a general idea and have some kind of agreement. Either way, the winter pattern itself has had some pretty notable consistency.. which hasn't worked in our favor much at all. We have had brief windows of opportunity, but the pattern has reverted back to the active/supressed Pac jet and higher heights in the east. The next couple weeks look pretty changeable with cold air available up north. I'd still watch for at least one more threat. Hope your mom is doing well. What do you think has been the biggest culprit in long range this year? Is it the lack of stable tellies (pna/nao/ao)? Seems like west coast has been the driver (which arguably is in many eyes the most important player in our weather. I just feel that this year has been extra volatile...maybe because weve seen more digital snow than I've seen in some time...but it obviously hasn't happened. Lets hope for a good window....before it slams shut. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Poking around some other sub-forums, it seems like we might have 2 distinct threats. 1 comes next weekend/early next week as a storm comes bowling across from the west. It appears that this might be a gradient system across the state capable of producing moderately heavy amounts. A 2nd threat looms about 2 weeks from now, and that one could...could deliver a big dump if everything goes right. Yeah...I know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 27 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Poking around some other sub-forums, it seems like we might have 2 distinct threats. 1 comes next weekend/early next week as a storm comes bowling across from the west. It appears that this might be a gradient system across the state capable of producing moderately heavy amounts. A 2nd threat looms about 2 weeks from now, and that one could...could deliver a big dump if everything goes right. Yeah...I know... LOLOL.....check out the 12z goofus for next weekend... Its caving to Euros more suppressed look. Beyond that.....not even guessing. I'm gonna focus my energy on a threat that has made it to the mid range. Been a long time. WHOOOSSSHHHH goes the vaccuum that just sucked me back in. T - 6 days......... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Winter isn't going to go away without a fight. Everyone in here should keep their shovels handy, but don't sharpen them just yet Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 I haven't looked at anything specific, but I'm encouraged to hear how the pattern is evolving. The almighty blizzard the Euro was showing yesterday was just too crazy of an evolution to take it seriously, but it did make for a fun 12 hours lol. Last nights run looked more realistic if the region did cash in. 12z GFS coming in line with a tight gradient pattern a la the Euro, so will be interesting to see if the LR can actually latch on to something and not flip-flop. I'd be more inclined to feel better for snow from the Turn-pike north with current forecasted H5 and surface reflection. If that were to hold true, southern tier would certainly be game, but tough to go all out for the southern portion of the state in March at long leads. The blocking pattern in the Atlantic may finally be friendly after a seasons worth of middle fingers, but I'm still wary of the Pac. If we can get a surface low to slide south of the Mason-Dixon, that means the baroclinic zone would be setup in a prime spot to cash in as we sit on the northern side of the boundary. Strong thermal gradients are great to work with any time of winter, but they are really nice for March due to the sharper gradient in temp as warmer air becomes more prevalent across the southern US. I'll be back in the office for the rest of week tomorrow. Been away traveling and with family all weekend. Will provide any analysis through the week if the pattern holds. Something tells me the sub-forum may be jumping sooner rather than later. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 A long as that Aleurian low is in place, I don't see us getting anything. That's a bad spot to create a snowstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 A long as that Aleurian low is in place, I don't see us getting anything. That's a bad spot to create a snowstorm here.This is why I'm skeptical. The Pac is not doing us any favors with the current look. If that low was further back, the downstream pattern would look much more favorable. Given the way this "winter" has gone, I'd be hesitant to get excited about anything just yet. It's something to watch carefully though and when I said the forum would be jumping, I didn't mean it was jumping on to something good lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Winter isn't going to go away without a fight. Everyone in here should keep their shovels handy, but don't sharpen them just yet Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Not sure i have ever sharpened a shovel.. so im good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 The GEFS & EPS at 12z today continue to look good with snow amounts. The GEFS stayed about the same & the EPS improved by about an inch from my post earlier today. We need to enjoy the tracking the next 2 weeks. This of course will probably be the last window until next November or December. We have been burnt before with a couple of windows that ended up failing. It is late in the game, but this time we have blocking that didn't exist earlier in the season. I know many will be skeptical until they are actually shoveling with their sharpened shovels, but I hope we enjoy the ride in here instead of some just saying it can't or won't happen for whatever reason. I will be here reading & posting when time permits. The clock is ticking down...Here is to a great final snow drive ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 37 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The GEFS & EPS at 12z today continue to look good with snow amounts. The GEFS stayed about the same & the EPS improved by about an inch from my post earlier today. We need to enjoy the tracking the next 2 weeks. This of course will probably be the last window until next November or December. We have been burnt before with a couple of windows that ended up failing. It is late in the game, but this time we have blocking that didn't exist earlier in the season. I know many will be skeptical until they are actually shoveling with their sharpened shovels, but I hope we enjoy the ride in here instead of some just saying it can't or won't happen for whatever reason. I will be here reading & posting when time permits. The clock is ticking down...Here is to a great final snow drive ! Very well stated all the way around. Maybe it works out, maybe it doesn't...but at this point we got a chance and we might as well enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 It was quietly a really cold night last night, with widespread single digits and even some subzero readings in the north. Bradford set a new daily record low of -8ºF this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: It was quietly a really cold night last night, with widespread single digits and even some subzero readings in the north. Bradford set a new daily record low of -8ºF this morning. wow. didnt realize it went that low. Liking the vibes in here..the last hurrah!! Lets do it.....or have fun tryin....cause its HAPPY HOUR!! Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlowGuy88 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 So, last week, we decided the season was over and we might only have to handle another one or two salting only events. We pulled all of our equipment and trailers off sites, as well as our bulk salt piles. Soooooo it looks like maybe we will be hauling salt back out later this week. I would not be too upset if that's how things worked out. Only got to plow once this year. Really hoping for some plowable snowfall this weekend. Also might have to think about pushing our lawn treatments back another week. Won't be able to lay down crabgrass pre emergent with 10" of snow on the lawns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 The 18z GEFS might have had the best run of this winter season. The snow amounts through the end of the run now show 8 to 9 inches across the LSV & 10-12 inches further northwest in CTP. The best part of this run was that there were no whiffs among the 21 members. Every member showed at least a few inches across our entire region. The majority of the ensemble members had very good snow hits of over six inches & several had double digit totals by the end of the run. We are now only 6 days away from the first possible event of our window. Hopefully the 0z model runs continue the good trend ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Who would have thought in this winter of discontent that perhaps our snowiest period might be coming up now thru March. We can only hope we have our last hurrah. Seems the blocking and ridging out west might finally play nice and provide the last eastern hurrah. I think it could be epic with springtime dynamics of the big cold pushing down and the warm moist air pushing up. I only hope it stays on the modeling. I say it's not how the season begins it's how it finishes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Great 0z model runs for CTP ! These next 2 weeks could be very interesting for those of us that want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Kind of odd to see CTP rather bullish, at this point in time, for the potential for snow this upcoming weekend. They're giving a 50 and 40 percent chance of snow here Saturday night and Sunday per my point and click forecast... Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Voyager said: Kind of odd to see CTP rather bullish, at this point in time, for the potential for snow this upcoming weekend. They're giving a 50 and 40 percent chance of snow here Saturday night and Sunday per my point and click forecast... Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Agreed. That IS a stretch for them. I'm hesitant to read their disco, as they typically poo poo talk of snow....until its snowing. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Horst says it's a good set up for this weekend, and added that it could be the biggest snow of the season. That got me excited... ...and then I recalled what our biggest snow so far has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Horst says it's a good set up for this weekend, and added that it could be the biggest snow of the season. That got me excited... ...and then I recalled what our biggest snow so far has been. Yeah....setting a high bar there. Just so ya'll know....Im borderline giddy right now as the consistency on the models continues to show what could be a fantastic week with multiple snow opps starting Friday. IF this fails..... someones gonna need to drag my sorry @ss outta the dungeon and save me. It will be a dark, dark place. I'm about to go whole hog on this pattern as its the best look we've seen all year. Yeah I know its March....but its all I've got. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Friday clipper appears to shaft I-80 and north on the 12z GFS. Thing is, what does that do to the Sunday-Monday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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