Central PA - February 2017

[Itstrainingtime]

NWS is investigating damage in York and Lancaster counties right now to determine whether or not tornadoes touched down there. 

[canderson]

Any news of the Coal Twp Lancaster Co damage was a tornado? Certainly looks like it. 

[Blizzard of 93]

What a crazy weather day yesterday for the region! I enjoyed the historic warmth this week, but today is back to the reality that it is still winter.

The 12z GFS looks fantastic for those of us that would like another round of winter in March. There is a clipper that has been showing up for several runs for this Friday. The bullseye has been shifting north & south, but 50 miles either side of I-80 looks good for a 1 to 3 inch type of snow. 

The second week of March on the 12z GFS brings 2 more winter storms. The trough in the east, along with good blocking, allows the storms to dig a bit more to our south. I think most of us would sign up for the 16 day snow total which has around 10 inches for most of CTP. Most of us would probably be thrilled with even half of that !

 

[Itstrainingtime]

13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

What a crazy weather day yesterday for the region! I enjoyed the historic warmth this week, but today is back to the reality that it is still winter.

The 12z GFS looks fantastic for those of us that would like another round of winter in March. There is a clipper that has been showing up for several runs for this Friday. The bullseye has been shifting north & south, but 50 miles either side of I-80 looks good for a 1 to 3 inch type of snow. 

The second week of March on the 12z GFS brings 2 more winter storms. The trough in the east, along with good blocking, allows the storms to dig a bit more to our south. I think most of us would sign up for the 16 day snow total which has around 10 inches for most of CTP. Most of us would probably be thrilled with even half of that !

 

I've been waiting patiently for this post from you!

[Blizzard of 93]

JB just posted & he has concerns that The MJO might not cooperate during this upcoming time period.

At this point, I just want MDT to get over 10 inches for the season in order to avoid the all time futility snow records, so that means we need to score 4.5 inches of snow within the next month or so.

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Oh geez thanks for that, wow I'm dumb haha. JB shared it on his twitter this morning for some reason. I dunno how it didn't register to me there were leaves on the trees. 

That's how I caught it. I saw all the green and then looked at the original post date. Oh, and don't feel dumb, it happens.

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

JB just posted & he has concerns that The MJO might not cooperate during this upcoming time period.

At this point, I just want MDT to get over 10 inches for the season in order to avoid the all time futility snow records, so that means we need to score 4.5 inches of snow within the next month or so.

I didn't see anything in the MJO forecasts that would necessarily imply that it doesn't cooperate... at least in my opinion. Most forecasts take it through the rest of 2 and through some of 3 enroute to eventually ending up in the circle. So at the worst we may lose it's input. Phase 2 and 3 are the coldest phases for the northeast with JFM and FMA. The correlation (significance %) is a crapshoot with 2 in JFM but very solid with FMA...which is the 3 month period that will become more useful as we get into March. 

It's also just one part of the bigger equation with many variables and I can't think of a better example of this than just going the whole way through Phase 8 (record magnitude at one point), all the way through 1, and starting into 2 in the last 14 days. And what do we have to show for it? A record warm week culminating in a severe outbreak that had 2 possible PA tornadoes. 

The 12z GFS might literally be one of the best runs I've seen all winter in terms of it actually having multiple snow events in PA throughout it's run.. and it still had two cutters in it haha. That clipper system that's been showing up on the heels of the next warm up and cutter later this week is def one to watch. GFS has been more robust and a bit north of the Euro last couple runs. 12z had best snow in PA I-80 and up. Euro doesn't have much QPF and is more of a southern PA/northern Mid-Atl deal. There's gonna be plenty of cold air to tap in Canada, we just need the pattern to cooperate a bit to at least deliver a clipper or two. 

[Jns2183]

I didn't see anything in the MJO forecasts that would necessarily imply that it doesn't cooperate... at least in my opinion. Most forecasts take it through the rest of 2 and through some of 3 enroute to eventually ending up in the circle. So at the worst we may lose it's input. Phase 2 and 3 are the coldest phases for the northeast with JFM and FMA. The correlation (significance %) is a crapshoot with 2 in JFM but very solid with FMA...which is the 3 month period that will become more useful as we get into March. 

It's also just one part of the bigger equation with many variables and I can't think of a better example of this than just going the whole way through Phase 8 (record magnitude at one point), all the way through 1, and starting into 2 in the last 14 days. And what do we have to show for it? A record warm week culminating in a severe outbreak that had 2 possible PA tornadoes. 

The 12z GFS might literally be one of the best runs I've seen all winter in terms of it actually having multiple snow events in PA throughout it's run.. and it still had two cutters in it haha. That clipper system that's been showing up on the heels of the next warm up and cutter later this week is def one to watch. GFS has been more robust and a bit north of the Euro last couple runs. 12z had best snow in PA I-80 and up. Euro doesn't have much QPF and is more of a southern PA/northern Mid-Atl deal. There's gonna be plenty of cold air to tap in Canada, we just need the pattern to cooperate a bit to at least deliver a clipper or two. 

Your post regarding the tornado near Boalaburg is a bit ironic considering the only other February tornado in Pa since 1959 was in 1992 in Centre County


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[pasnownut]

Just got home from cutting trees and cleanup. Never in all my years have I seen such damage in this area. Whole hillsides are just wiped out. 

[Rickg2]

The tornado in Pittston was confirmed. I have not found the rating yet. this is from WNEP. the NWS site doesn't have the report yet. From my understanding is they are still investigating wayne and lackawanna counties.

 

EditL EF2

NWS Binghamton has been surveying damage from yesterday in the Pittston Township area of Northeast PA (not far from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton International Airport). We can confirm that it was indeed a tornado, it will be rated EF2 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, and it had estimated maximum winds of 120 mph. Further details (path length, etc.) will be released later this evening upon survey completion.

 

[canderson]

I think when said and done 3 tornados will have touched down yesterday in PA. Crazy.

[canderson]

There's the 2nd confirmed tornado, this in York County

 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
515 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

...NWS Meteorologists are currently surveying storm damage in
York County...

National Weather Service Meteorologists from State College PA are currently surveying storm damage near Hallam and Wrightsville in York County. This is regarding the severe thunderstorms that moved through the area on February 25, 2017.

Preliminary results indicate that the damage in this part of York County was caused by an EF1 tornado with winds estimated at 90 mph. The path of tornado damage appears to be approximately 4 miles long and about a 100 yards in width.

The final results of the survey are expected to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information Statement later this
evening.

It will also be available on our website...which can be found at weather.gov/StateCollege.

$$

[Jns2183]

I think when said and done 3 tornados will have touched down yesterday in PA. Crazy.

Not bad, going from 1 February tornado since 1950 to 4 now


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[Rickg2]

I am thinking that the lackawanna and wayne counties are the same tornado as the pittston tornado.

It will be interesting to see what the NWS says.

 

[BGM Blizzard]

Pretty easy verification of a tornado in the Pittston/Wilkes-Barre area form yesterday...

[Jns2183]

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[Rickg2]

I haven;t found the official report yet:

(Luzerne County - WOLF) The National Weather Service released its findings regarding Saturday's severe weather.

Their crews confirm an EF-2 tornado touched down from Plains and Pittston in Luzerne County to Moosic in Lackawanna County. This happened from 2:35 to 2:50 p.m.

The tornado generated top wind speeds of 120 mph.

NWS found the twister had a maximum width of 500 yards and it traveled 12.8 miles.

The tornado did extensive damage to a metal horse barn and two houses along its path. 28 additional homes had varying levels of damage. The tornado knocked over trees along its 12.8 mile path.

The hardest hit areas were Bald Mountain Road in Plains Township, Suscon, Chapel, and Baker Roads in Pittston Township, and along Glendale Road in Pittston and Spring Brook Township in Lackawanna County. There was also significant damage at Lake Scranton near Moosic. The tornado lifted north of Lake Scranton.

Fortunately, no injuries were reported.

[Rickg2]

HAd the luzerne county tornado been about 3 or so miles west, this   would have been a different story. it looks like the line of damage was just east of the valley. amazing...

 

[Itstrainingtime]

NWS says no tornado in Lanco, but estimated straight line winds of 100 mph were actually stronger than the EF1 tornado in York county estimated at 90 mph.

[pasnownut]

49 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

NWS says no tornado in Lanco, but estimated straight line winds of 100 mph were actually stronger than the EF1 tornado in York county estimated at 90 mph.

Yeah, as we were driving to a family friends place w/ our chainaws in the back, we realized that we were likely in the worst area yesterday.  Pic of house w/ tree on/in it, is across the stree from where we spent the day cutting.  Up on top of ridge.  The valley below likely lost 20-30% of the trees, but as you can see in pic 3, many trees left standing have been damaged at 20-40ft.  Many said tornado, but the trees were pushed in eastward facing direction, which I suggested has more of a straight line wind look.  I'm telling you....its just surreal in that area.  SO much damage.  Due east once "out of the woods", the open farmland got absolutly wrecked.  Some farms are just decimated.  Style points for my bros biking helmet...he doesnt cut wood like I do, but Im glad he had it on.

Nut

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, as we were driving to a family friends place w/ our chainaws in the back, we realized that we were likely in the worst area yesterday.  Pic of house w/ tree on/in it, is across the stree from where we spent the day cutting.  Up on top of ridge.  The valley below likely lost 20-30% of the trees, but as you can see in pic 3, many trees left standing have been damaged at 20-40ft.  Many said tornado, but the trees were pushed in eastward facing direction, which I suggested has more of a straight line wind look.  I'm telling you....its just surreal in that area.  SO much damage.  Due east once "out of the woods", the open farmland got absolutly wrecked.  Some farms are just decimated.  Style points for my bros biking helmet...he doesnt cut wood like I do, but Im glad he had it on.

Nut

Pictures and your accounts are sobering...this is why I'm not a fan of severe. Too much heartache, too much damage, too much people lose that can't be replaced. Yeah it's weather and yeah it's powerful and all that, but I'll stay on the winter weather side for being a cheerleader. 

Saturday was the first time I was truly scared since I was a kid. I've heard people talk about continuous thunder...always thought it was an exaggeration until Saturday afternoon. Literally, for 10-15 minutes or so, the thunder never once stopped. Everything in my 'hood was so eerily quiet. Then the hail started, the tornado warning went up, and suddenly I felt more vulnerable to the weather than I can ever remember. There were some very anxious moments, ones that I don't need to repeat anytime soon. 

[pasnownut]

Ditto Maytown.  I appreciate the fascination from the meteorological perspective, but its hard to "get excited" when you see what they do.

Snow is a much safer weather "sport" to play, as its affects are of the nuisance variety, and not the catastrophic one.  

After cutting and bringing home wood all day Saturday (prob got 3 qds home before the storm), and then helping the friend in the pics all day yesterday...I'm so tired ...I almost sat to pee this morning (sorry for the visual).

Nut

 

 

[sauss06]

i echo both of your sentiments. I  hear people frequently talk about how they like severe weather and its usually someone who hasn't experienced severe weather and the destruction that it leaves behind. In my almost 40 years in the Fire Dept, i have witnessed destruction from severe weather, from Straight line winds to blizzards and many in between across the commonwealth. It still hard for me to look into peoples eyes who just lost much of their possessions or even a loved one.  I had a co-worker once say how he thought it'd be cool to lose power, until a couple years ago went that Tornado came through and he lost power for a couple days. Now he is usually the first one who gets nervous when a storm is projected, he is really subdued. 

[pasnownut]

30 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i echo both of your sentiments. I  hear people frequently talk about how they like severe weather and its usually someone who hasn't experienced severe weather and the destruction that it leaves behind. In my almost 40 years in the Fire Dept, i have witnessed destruction from severe weather, from Straight line winds to blizzards and many in between across the commonwealth. It still hard for me to look into peoples eyes who just lost much of their possessions or even a loved one.  I had a co-worker once say how he thought it'd be cool to lose power, until a couple years ago went that Tornado came through and he lost power for a couple days. Now he is usually the first one who gets nervous when a storm is projected, he is really subdued. 

You know its not good when a fire station 1 mile away is turned into a command center.  My son said his bud was at the station all night and all day yesterday, while with no power and a lot of trees down at his parents place.  He  couldnt get to because "duty calls". 

And a bigger travesty is hearing how some were already being told that insurance was not covering some/all expenses.  Damn shame...(and no I'm not using funky *&@# to spell it).  I want to be crystal clear on that point.

 

Nut

 

[Jns2183]

Ugh....Don't CTP's afternoon discussion is mentioning another severe threat Wednesday


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[canderson]

Any snow chances this weekend for anyone south of CTP look DOA. 

Wednesday might get some nasty winds but CAPE I don't think is nearly as high as Saturday  

[Voyager]

6 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Snow is a much safer weather "sport" to play, as its affects are of the nuisance variety, and not the catastrophic one. 

Unless you drive an 18 wheeler for a living. In my case, snow can turn out to be quite catastrophic. I run I-80 quite a bit, and fortunately I haven't been out that way in any of the more significant events, but most Central PA'ers know of the multi-vehicle pile-ups that happen all too frequently out there. Personally, I don't want to ever be involved in something like that...

[Santa Clause]

Going to play devil's advocate, snow can be both deadly and destructive. Lost a close family friend to a snowsquall related pileup years ago on 80. Also my cousins from New Hampshire lost a bunch of property in a snow/ice storm combo. If you're fascinated by extreme weather, you know there's a chance things could turn out bad. Fascination and rooting on death or destruction are two very different things.

[pasnownut]

Sorry guys but I'm not speaking about me and mine.... there was more damage on one mountain in 1/2 hour than most witness in their life. 

Many of us drive a lot. I drove over 30000 miles last year. I'm not sure why the vehicle is a qualifier. Miles = danger. I'm just accept it as part of my job in sales.  

Nut  

 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Going to play devil's advocate, snow can be both deadly and destructive. Lost a close family friend to a snowsquall related pileup years ago on 80. Also my cousins from New Hampshire lost a bunch of property in a snow/ice storm combo. If you're fascinated by extreme weather, you know there's a chance things could turn out bad. Fascination and rooting on death or destruction are two very different things.

Sure it can. But severe thunderstorms are called severe because of the understanding that damage can and likely will result from them. Look, I'm not against or angry at people that like severe weather. I'm really not. I'm just not personally interested in it happening near my home or my family, so why would I be interested in it happening near someone else? But I do object somewhat to the word "fascination"...perhaps that's all it is for you, but there are plenty that are more than fascinated by severe weather, they actively root for it to occur. And when I read some comments from those people, I can't help but wonder what they'd say if a big fat tree split their house in half or if large hail decimated their personal vehicles. Will they continue to cheer lead at that point? I can't answer that. But I wonder...