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Central PA - February 2017


MAG5035

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There's a lot of mesowest stations in the south central and Sus Valley regions that are 74-75ºF+ currently. Saw one station near Carlisle reporting 77ºF. Literally about as warm as you can possibly get this time of the year. I've seen the majority of opening weekends of trout season (the mid April one) be cooler than what we've had this week.

 It may end up average to a few degrees below the last few days of the month but I'd have to think this likely easily ends up as the warmest February ever in our region...or certainly one of them. There's just no offsetting such abnormal warmth for a large chunk of the month.. especially when the "cold" we had earlier in the month is more akin to average cold than anything else.

 

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Absolutely incredible here today.  Hit 77.0 degrees for my high temp at 315pm.  I honestly cannot remember if it has ever hit a higher temperature earlier ever before where I have lived, either in north jersey or here in Cumberland County.  Even with the doors and windows opened the temps in my house were in the upper 70's to 81 degrees in the bedroom facing the south.  I was forced to turn my A/C on to get it back down to 75 degrees!  I am quite certain I have never in my life turned the A/C on in the month of February before today.

Even now, just past 7:30pm it's still 63 outside.  It's getting harder and harder to think about it snowing here again this season even though the odds still easily favor an event happening here over the next 3 weeks.  We'll see.

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1 minute ago, Jmister said:

NWS is forecasting a high of 77 in State College today. The record for Feb 24 is 69 set in 1985.

Not only would that crush the daily record, but the record high in all of Feb is 73 (which we already came within 1 degree of yesterday). Wow. 

Was just about to post this...freakishly warm stretch this week. It will also be the only time we have recorded two 70F+ temperatures in February.

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My tulips are out, too. They also came out last Christmas, along with our hyacinths. What saved them last year was that we got snow when it finally did get cold and insulated them. That may not happen this time.

Anyway, it's already 64 degrees here at 9:30AM. I wonder just how high we actually go today if it's this warm already...

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3 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

Not sure how accurate but it shows 78 on my (Accurite weather station)

I think its a few to high.

I also have an Accurite station (mine is fan aspirated) and I'm at 75 which will likely be my high for the day. Unless yours is a lesser non fan aspirated model, I'd be inclined to trust it.

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I don't know if I can recall a warmer 2-3 day period than this one in our region as a whole not only in the month of February but in the entire meteorological winter (DJF). I don't even think the infamous "July in Christmas" heat wave we had Christmas week last winter had such widespread 70-75ºF+ temps. 

There might be some severe weather risk tomorrow with the frontal passage, especially in the Sus Valley.. where CAPE's of up to several hundred J/kg poke up into PA as the front doesn't get in that region til later in the day. Primarily a wind threat with a mainly unidirectional flow aloft. There is some modest helicity present between 15-18z Sat also, so with the bit of CAPE we do have that does trigger some 0-1km EHI values up near 1 in the Sus Valley. So wouldn't rule out a random low topped cell or two throwing down a weak, short lived tornado either. SPC has central and eastern Penn down into the Mid-Atlantic in a marginal threat tomorrow, and mentions maybe eventually needing a slight risk. Either way it probably won't be the enhanced threat we see today in Ohio.

We finally get back to somewhat normal temps after the front goes through into early next week. It looks like the next system mid week will be primarily a rain threat before reinforcing a colder regime beyond that. Overall, it looks pretty active and volatile going into the first week or so of March. There will be a good bit of cold available, it certainly does not look like a return to the ridiculousness we have now in the near future. Big question of course will be storm track in what looks to be a northern branch dominated regime. A big theme this year with northern branch storms has been simply the lows are tracking too far north...even with okay pattern alignments. Clipper lows tracking north of PA generally invite some combination (or all of the above) of less QPF, downsloping issues for the Sus Valley, and marginal low level temps that make for p-type issues. We shall see if we can finally sneak a couple under the mason-dixon line for a change. I do think there will be another threat or two to be had in the coming month, but at the same time am still pessimistic of this winters ability to finally shake the issues it's given us all along. 

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Everyone, per the NWS reporting locations, except Johnstown (69) and Mount Pocono (66) is at or above 70 degrees as of 2:00pm. Astonishing for February!

JST is now 72ºF, so now the only one left is Mount Pocono. Also see that KCXY (Harrisburg) is 79ºF. 

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