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Central PA - February 2017


MAG5035

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It was nice to see us get a nice trashing. the snow here was of the light and fluffy type. it started around 1:30 am and by 3:30 am we had a couple of inches--it ws pounding. by 5:30 (when I got my call about work not opening until 12:00) we had near 5 inches. by 8:00 (I got my second call that we were closed) it had slowed down and we were near the end and had about  8-9 inches. On the black top it was about 6 inches. 

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Sleet and freezing rain. Temperature at 32.7.

BGM

Models are
depicting 45-60 knot winds in the mixing layer by Monday morning,
strongest towards Poconos-Southern Catskills which also happens to
be where ice accretion potential is highest; tenth to quarter inch
at higher elevations. Combined effects of high winds and weight of
ice poses a heightened threat for tree damage and power outages;
especially in the Poconos-Catskills yet not exclusively there.
This may be at least somewhat of a problem areawide from ice and
wet snow.

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

Hang on to your hat overnight into Monday night. Winds 25-35 with lots of mixing down to 55.

It def is looking like quite a windy one, especially for you since it always seems like your in a wind tunnel for these wind events haha. 850mb winds are progged to be 60-70knots just off to the southeast of the Sus Valley, which is likely why LWX and PHL have high wind watches/warnings. CTP might eventually consider York and Lancaster counties for high wind warnings. 850mb winds still 50-60 knots in the rest of Sus Valley, so there should be some pretty decent gusts of the 40-50knot variety mixed down. There could also be some feisty snow squalls back over the Laurels and some of the central mountains region (AOO-UNV) in the wake of the arctic front passage tonight. 

Still watching the Wed-Thur timeframe. It still looks the streams will stay unphased but the dominant northern branch wave may run an area of light snow across the state anyways. Low stays north of PA so the usual downsloping issues east of the mountains will probably present themselves. Beyond that we dump a trough in the west again and that will quickly drive up heights in the east and likely above average temperatures for the 6-10 day timeframe. GFS has been remarkably consistent the last few days with some kind of very large and slow eastern storm way out beyond D10. It started in the 300s but is now showing it starting to develop just inside D10 (240). 12z Euro has it too. The problem with a big storm in that timeframe might ultimately be a lack of cold air, however a major event may shuffle the pattern back to where we may be more favorable for wintry weather. We still technically haven't even entered the phase 8 MJO (another day or two) yet... so with the lag we might not start to realize the effects until around that day 8-10 timeframe and beyond. Still think overall that teleconnection could be positioned decently for a late season winter run if other factors cooperate enough... then maybe we could shake some of this winter's tendencies. With NY State and New England getting theirs pretty decently, one glaring tendency that has become obvious is aside from the Carolinas/VA snowstorm this winter has been a 40N and above winter... at best.   

 

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

It def is looking like quite a windy one, especially for you since it always seems like your in a wind tunnel for these wind events haha. 850mb winds are progged to be 60-70knots just off to the southeast of the Sus Valley, which is likely why LWX and PHL have high wind watches/warnings. CTP might eventually consider York and Lancaster counties for high wind warnings. 850mb winds still 50-60 knots in the rest of Sus Valley, so there should be some pretty decent gusts of the 40-50knot variety mixed down. There could also be some feisty snow squalls back over the Laurels and some of the central mountains region (AOO-UNV) in the wake of the arctic front passage tonight. 

Still watching the Wed-Thur timeframe. It still looks the streams will stay unphased but the dominant northern branch wave may run an area of light snow across the state anyways. Low stays north of PA so the usual downsloping issues east of the mountains will probably present themselves. Beyond that we dump a trough in the west again and that will quickly drive up heights in the east and likely above average temperatures for the 6-10 day timeframe. GFS has been remarkably consistent the last few days with some kind of very large and slow eastern storm way out beyond D10. It started in the 300s but is now showing it starting to develop just inside D10 (240). 12z Euro has it too. The problem with a big storm in that timeframe might ultimately be a lack of cold air, however a major event may shuffle the pattern back to where we may be more favorable for wintry weather. We still technically haven't even entered the phase 8 MJO (another day or two) yet... so with the lag we might not start to realize the effects until around that day 8-10 timeframe and beyond. Still think overall that teleconnection could be positioned decently for a late season winter run if other factors cooperate enough... then maybe we could shake some of this winter's tendencies. With NY State and New England getting theirs pretty decently, one glaring tendency that has become obvious is aside from the Carolinas/VA snowstorm this winter has been a 40N and above winter... at best.   

 

I'd like to see a study about wind in Harrisburg. I swear this area has to be one of the windiest inland locations in the country.

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20 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

https://centre.weatherstem.com/beaverstadium

I think these stations are pretty accurate, but there was just a 65 mph gust reported with 52 mph sustained wind here!

I'd believe it, there's a pretty big area of 70+ mph on velocities east of town now toward Lewistown with the beam height about 1500-2000ft.

Screen Shot 2017-02-12 at 9.08.49 PM.png

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