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Central PA - February 2017

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, canderson said:

Horst warns high bust potential and that the roadways are very, very warm.

This could be a deal where you have 5" on the roof and the road is just a slushfest.

Here's my take on this. A bunch of years back, when I drove a tri-axle dump truck and was on a seasonal layoff, I'd take my wife to work in Palmerton on Fridays so I could pick her up afterward and go out to dinner. The one Friday featured a storm system that was mostly rain, but finished off as a burst of snow at the end. It was 63 degrees and raining that morning when we left the house. I drove her the 25 miles to work, and the cold front beat us as it must have been right overhead when we left the house. Anyway, the rain was already mixing with snow when I dropped her off. By the time I got back to Tamaqua, the temperature was down to the upper 20's and the snow was starting to accumulate on the roadways. A few hours later when it finally stopped we had about 4 inches on the grass and close to 3 inches on the paved surfaces.

Basically, if it snows hard enough, it will accumulate on paved surfaces. I would think tonight would be no exception, especially due to the fact that there will be no solar radiation during the bulk of the event.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
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Posted
29 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

IMG_4341.PNG

Wow, the fabled C-PA crusher that doesn't skimp out on anyone in our subforum... inside 24 hours even. I'm glad to see the Euro finally match up a bit more with other guidance in PA, it had been kind of keeping heavier stuff concentrated more on the southern tier. 

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NortheastPAWx

NortheastPAWx

Posted
Posted

Watch ratios tomorrow. The models that are printing out 12"+ over here in the NYC metro - especially the Euro's 16" and 20"+ on LI - are also dependent upon ratios in upwards of 17:1. Obviously further back in PA has a higher chance to realize those, but the totals will also depend on when and how this storm cranks.

If it cranks in the ECM/UK/Canadian position then you all are good for 6"+, with the possibility of 10"+ in the east.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Yea upper levels here look pretty cold, but sometimes that doesn't matter. 

Just helps the storm overcome any warmth in the column, and as modelled, the quick flip for many.

I'm still uneasy, but not at all interested in fighting a rather unanimous consensus for a good shellackin.

Nut

 

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2001kx

2001kx

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Wow, the fabled C-PA crusher that doesn't skimp out on anyone in our subforum... inside 24 hours even. I'm glad to see the Euro finally match up a bit more with other guidance in PA, it had been kind of keeping heavier stuff concentrated more on the southern tier. 

Sign me up for that map...would be ideal for all.

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WmsptWx

WmsptWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, kdskidoo said:

well sorry guys I just killed this storm.  I was just out and put the rear blade on the tractor for the first time all season.  sure kiss of death for a storm is for me to prepare ahead of time.

I just want you to know that the blanket party hurts more because you think we're wrapping soap in a towel, but we're actually using bricks.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Posted
10 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Watch ratios tomorrow. The models that are printing out 12"+ over here in the NYC metro - especially the Euro's 16" and 20"+ on LI - are also dependent upon ratios in upwards of 17:1. Obviously further back in PA has a higher chance to realize those, but the totals will also depend on when and how this storm cranks.

If it cranks in the ECM/UK/Canadian position then you all are good for 6"+, with the possibility of 10"+ in the east.

Dynamically, this storm certainly has the potential to realize the higher ratios but yea I'm surprised that the Kuchera map is putting the excessive totals over the NYC area. On the other hand your region (NYC) will the have the benefit of having the coastal low in full swing by the time it gets up to your latitude and so cold air will be effectively drawn all the way into the metro and some of LI too since the low is heading for the benchmark. I've posted a couple times the last several days about Kuchera ratio, it calculates the snow ratio using the highest temp in the column from 500mb to the surface and applies this equation. It uses Kelvin for temperature so for reference 0ºC=273.15K.

T = maximum temp in lowest 500 mb (K) 
if T > 271.16 
    ratio = 12 + 2*(271.16 - T) 
else 
    ratio = 12 + (271.16 - T)

Considering low level and surface temps would figure to be the issue near the coast, the Euro must be drawing in pretty cold low level temps to be calculating higher ratios to allow for the heavy amounts. Kuchera can be more accurate than using a flat 10:1 as it changes as the column temps change but it can have it's limitations. It's not a formula that takes into account the actual snow growth processes (such as omega and where the best omega is in reference to the DGZ, etc). But great lift is being modeled with this storm, so it will put down good ratios in the more intense bands.. it just has to be realized at the surface. 

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NortheastPAWx

NortheastPAWx

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Dynamically, this storm certainly has the potential to realize the higher ratios but yea I'm surprised that the Kuchera map is putting the excessive totals over the NYC area. On the other hand your region (NYC) will the have the benefit of having the coastal low in full swing by the time it gets up to your latitude and so cold air will be effectively drawn all the way into the metro and some of LI too since the low is heading for the benchmark. I've posted a couple times the last several days about Kuchera ratio, it calculates the snow ratio using the highest temp in the column from 500mb to the surface and applies this equation. It uses Kelvin for temperature so for reference 0ºC=273.15K.

T = maximum temp in lowest 500 mb (K) 
if T > 271.16 
    ratio = 12 + 2*(271.16 - T) 
else 
    ratio = 12 + (271.16 - T)

Considering low level and surface temps would figure to be the issue near the coast, the Euro must be drawing in pretty cold low level temps to be calculating higher ratios to allow for the heavy amounts. Kuchera can be more accurate than using a flat 10:1 as it changes as the column temps change but it can have it's limitations. It's not a formula that takes into account the actual snow growth processes (such as omega and where the best omega is in reference to the DGZ, etc). But great lift is being modeled with this storm, so it will put down good ratios in the more intense bands.. it just has to be realized at the surface. 

I am, of course, also speaking from the POV of one of the more northern and interior sections of NYC - Fordham is pretty much right in the north-central area of the Bronx, which is several miles clear of the coast; nearest water is Pelham Bay. So that does give us a shot at, I'd think, at least 12:1. 

The ECM is probably also relying on dynamics; this one is basically trying to go bombogenesis on us. The space is there which is also helping you guys back in central and eastern PA. If the storm was faster it'd probably be fringe city. But the other question at this point, aside from ratios, is also subsidence. The NAM family has tried to run a megaband in various locations from the Poconos/NC NJ/SE NY, which could hurt areas on either side of it. Other modeling has placed this further SE, such as the Euro, which increases precip/snowfall to the HECS-like amounts the 12z printed for NYC/LI.

Either way, it's one hell of a storm for many upcoming, especially given it could peak during AM rush hour here in the city. Looking back toward the POV of this area, I also don't envy anyone commuting on 78, 80, 81, or 380 tomorrow.

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted

Interesting the published warning for the area is for 5-8 inches, but my point/click is more along the lines of 6-12 inches.

Tonight
Rain likely before 10pm, then rain and snow likely between 10pm and 1am, then snow after 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. North wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Northwest wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
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skiier04

skiier04

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol not very excited over this one, but still plenty of winter for something more interesting. Tough to get pumped over 2 or 3 inches of snow.

Have some faith man! I know it's pretty much nowcasting time and I always try to keep expectations low but 18z GFS looked very Euro like, warning criteria throughout the AOO-UNV-IPT corridor. Seems like we should be in for a solid 3-6" at worst which would be like... the best storm of the past two years. And maybe an outside shot at the mythical 6"+?

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted

Hey all. Thought I'd post my projected totals in here based on everyone's locale. These are based upon trends today with temps and current guidance. I might be low balling a bit from what some are showing, but with compaction being an issue with the density of the snow in southern tier, I went below what some are expressing. 

Franklin County: 2-5" with local 7"

Adams County: 3-6" with local to 8"

York County: 3-6" with local to 8"

Lancaster County: S Rt. 30 - 3-6" local 8" / N Rt. 30 4-8" with local to 10" 

Lebanon County: 4-8" with local to 10"

Berks County: 4-8" with local to 10"

N and E of Berks County: 5-10" local to 12"

Schuylkill County: 5-10" local to 12"

Harrisburg Proper: 3-7" 

Cumberland County: 3-6" local to 8"

MAG Country: 4-8" local to 10" 

Johnstown/Altoona: 5-10" local to 12"

State College: 3-6" local to 8"

Williamsport: 2-5" local to 7"

Clearfield: 3-6" local to 8"

 

If there's any areas I missed, just let me know. I took State College and Clearfield totals with consideration with afternoon snow showers as well. It's tight along the very southern tier, but I think the area can pull out at least 3" of paste. Elevations down there around 800-1000' will help by the border. 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Posted

Headline placement over PA is a bit interesting. Looks like CTP is more conservative than the adjacent BGM and PBZ CWA's. PBZ issuance of warnings for 6-10 in Indiana and all of Westmoreland Counties (not just the Laurel's portion) and BGM warning of 5-7 in Bradford County with no adjacent advisory in Tioga would seem to suggest warnings to the counties at and SE of the AOO/UNV/IPT corridor with a couple more NY border counties in advisories would be a better coordination. The 12z suite especially with the Euro now directly targeting PA for the swath of heaviest would lend support to warning expansion. On the other hand I could see some initial temp issues and slow accums (compaction) at first maybe making them think accums stay just on the other end of the 6" threshold. Either way this is going to be a quick and high impact event. 

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dj88

dj88

Posted
Posted
Hey all. Thought I'd post my projected totals in here based on everyone's locale. These are based upon trends today with temps and current guidance. I might be low balling a bit from what some are showing, but with compaction being an issue with the density of the snow in southern tier, I went below what some are expressing. 

Franklin County: 2-5" with local 7"

Adams County: 3-6" with local to 8"

York County: 3-6" with local to 8"

Lancaster County: S Rt. 30 - 3-6" local 8" / N Rt. 30 4-8" with local to 10" 

Lebanon County: 4-8" with local to 10"

Berks County: 4-8" with local to 10"

N and E of Berks County: 5-10" local to 12"

Schuylkill County: 5-10" local to 12"

Harrisburg Proper: 3-7" 

Carlisle County: 3-6" local to 8"

MAG Country: 4-8" local to 10" 

Johnstown/Altoona: 5-10" local to 12"

State College: 3-6" local to 8"

Williamsport: 2-5" local to 7"

Clearfield: 3-6" local to 8"

 

If there's any areas I missed, just let me know. I took State College and Clearfield totals with consideration with afternoon snow showers as well. It's tight along the very southern tier, but I think the area can pull out at least 3" of paste. Elevations down there around 800-1000' will help by the border. 


Elysburg! Can't forget konebels country lol

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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skiier04

skiier04

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

Headline placement over PA is a bit interesting. Looks like CTP is more conservative than the adjacent BGM and PBZ CWA's. PBZ issuance of warnings for 6-10 in Indiana and all of Westmoreland Counties (not just the Laurel's portion) and BGM warning of 5-7 in Bradford County with no adjacent advisory in Tioga would seem to suggest warnings to the counties at and SE of the AOO/UNV/IPT corridor would be a better coordination. The 12z suite especially with the Euro now directly targeting PA for the swath of heaviest would lend support to warning expansion. On the other hand I could see some initial temp issues and slow accums at first maybe making them think accums stay just on the other end of the 6" threshold. Either way this is going to be a quick and high impact event. 

I was thinking the same thing. They really seem to have been ultra conservative this year. Last event they didnt even get an advisory posted until 5 hours after snow started here and the region got 3-5"

Then they also have this map posted, while the WWA text still says 2-5"...

SnowAmt_SFC16.png

 

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